Everything Else

Night Songs – Round 1 Day 6: A Couple Fightbacks, and One Capitulation Please

By Sam Fels 1515 0

As I said yesterday, it’s really rare to see sweeps in the NHL playoffs. All it takes for any team to get one win is a good goalie performance, or a bad one against you, or just a few pucks going in that didn’t in the first couple games, or maybe a weak call or two. It’s not like the NBA, where if a team doesn’t have an answer on defense for a certain player or matchup, their opponent is just going to keep going to it or force an adjustment and they’ll just open up something else. So the Leafs, Devils, and Avs were able to scratch last night. Meanwhile, the Ducks continue down a familiar and utterly hilarious path.

Bruins 2 – Leafs 4 (BOS leads 2-1)

While it would have been wonderful, the odds the Bruins could continue to smack the Leafs upside the head with a shovel for four straight games were always long. The Leafs had to muster their most energy and best game of the season, and they did just about that last night. While the postgame thread was mostly about how Babcock decided to match up Tomas Plekanec with Patrice Bergeron and how that line for once didn’t rip out most of the Leafs’ vital organs, in reality Bergeron kicked around Plekanec as he normally does with everyone else. They just didn’t score as much as they did in Games 1 and 2. Unless the Leafs think Bergeron taking a 66% share of attempts while Pleks was out there against them is a good thing. That line also had nine shots on goal for the Bruins combined, and if the Leafs try that again they’re going to be very, very sorry. Freddie Andersen was very good, which will be all the more deflating when he turns into a whoopi cushion again soon.

Lightning 2 – Devils 5 (TB Diddler’s lead 2-1)

They might have declared this series over if it wasn’t for Taylor Hall. It’s rather amazing the Devils got this one, because they were crushed over the first two periods to the tune of the Lightning having a 65% share in the first 40. But Schneider held strong long enough for Taylor Hall to do Taylor Hall things, the Lightning weren’t all there, and the Devils get some life. It won’t last long but hey, cheap thrills.

Predators 3 – Avalanche 5 (NSH leads 2-1)

Would have been the most enjoyable outcome of the evening if not for the Ducks. I gotta tell ya, as I’ve been saying, this Preds team is vulnerable. Yes, the first playoff game in Denver in four years was always going to lead to a lively atmosphere, and the Avs were always going to throw a heavy bag of desperation at the Preds. But they simply ran the NashVegas out of the building in the first and could afford to coast from there. BEDNAR! didn’t have MacKinnon out against Treat Boy Johansen, and instead threw him at Kyle Turris, who he inhaled anyway to the tune of a 77% share. Also two goals. Both Turris and Doughboy were -2, Turris had no shots, and Johansen only managed a goal on a 5-on-3 he couldn’t miss. You can get over this center twosome, I’m telling you. Oh, and PK Subban acted a tool, as is his way on the ice. Rinne got pulled, and in three games so far he has a .861. That’ll play for long for sure.

Ducks 1 – Sharks 6 (SJ leads 3-0)

I’m going to steal a comparison from friend of the program, Stace Of Base. And she’s free to break a glass over my head at her earliest convenience. You’ll recall after the Canucks bit it in the Final of ’11, they basically kept the same roster together, and thanks to the crap-tacular nature of the Northwest Division back then, they could continue to win that division. They would muddle through a couple regular seasons, but close hard at the end to win the thing because everyone else was too busy spinning in a circle. In 2012 they got thwacked by the Kings, and then in ’13 they got horsed by the Sharks and basically the Canucks have never been heard from again.

Well, the Ducks have two of the main cogs from that roster, so that’s going well. It feels like they peaked in ’15, when they simply handed the last two games of the conference final to the Hawks. They were beaten by Nashville the next year, and though they got to a conference final last year because their division was so bad, they were once again swatted away by the Preds who lost Johansen halfway through that series (when he was actually trying because he wasn’t paid yet). This Ducks team is finished, and you know it by the way they lash out when they’re done. Randy Carlyle knows no other way. Corey Perry is finished. Ryan Getzlaf somehow cares even less than he did and wants no part of Pavelski or Couture. Kesler can barely walk, but man can he talk.

It’s an interesting bind, because the Ducks blue line is actually good. But when it’s doing its work for a forward corps that eats its dinner at 4pm and then falls asleep, what’s the point? To fix the forwards would mean taking a piece or two off the blue line, and that would be running in place. Can’t wait to see what GMBM does here.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Only After You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews: Corey Crawford or Come Back, Shane!

By Sam Fels 1980 0

It’s that time. We gave you a week break. But now we must all pick through what was before we can figure out what should and shouldn’t be. It’s time for our world famous player reviews. And let’s start with the key log to everything, the player this season and the next few will hinge on, Corey Crawford.

Corey Crawford

27 starts, .929 SV%, 2.27 GAA, .935 SV% at evens, .902 SV% on the kill

God, don’t your eyes just bleed looking at those numbers? Doesn’t it make you wonder what might have been? You forgot about them, didn’t you? Because we spent so long looking at Forsberg’s or Glass’s or Berube’s .888s or whatever they were, it’s hard to understand was a .929 even means. Are those real numbers? Can you do that?

It’s important to remember how good Crow was. Crow’s SV% at 5-on-5 was fourth-best among all starters when he got hurt. His .859 high-danger save-percentage was the best in the league. His dSV%–basically the difference between what his expected save-percentage is based on the chances his team gives up and his actual save-percentage–was second-best behind Sergei Bobrovsky. His PK SV% was sixth-best. Crow is among the elite, and this debate is over on just how good he is. You’ll recall the Hawks’ PK was actually in the top five when Crow was around. It finished in the bottom half. He makes that much of a difference.

There’s no point in going any deeper on Crow, because everyone now knows the season collapsed without him. He’s far and away the most important Hawk, and probably the best. On the ice, there’s no question.

The problem is off the ice. Crow got dinged in Dallas right before Christmas, was awful in the last game before the Christmas break, and then simply became one with the ether from there on out. No one’s seen him, barely anyone has talked to him, and the Hawks’ shroud of secrecy isn’t helping matters. So that kind of affects…

Where We Go From Here: It’s impossible to say. In a vacuum, it’s real simple. Crow is back in the crease in September, he keeps the Hawks from being bad and any other move from there pushes them toward “good.” Crow by himself provides a high floor for the whole team.

But we can’t say that. While the Hawks and their media didn’t make anything of it, Crow apparently did get back on the ice somewhere around late winter and then wasn’t there anymore. In any other language, that’s a setback. And he hasn’t been on the ice since. The Hawks never used the words, “shut down,” which means Crow simply couldn’t get back on the ice with whatever it is he’s dealing with. He wasn’t kept off it. He just wasn’t out there.

So the Hawks can say everything will be fine and he’s on course to be ready for training camp, but there’s simply no evidence of that anywhere. When does he have to be back on the ice? July? August? What if he’s not? Is that part of the plan? If things were fine, I have to believe he’d be in contention to play for Canada at the World Championships if he so desired. It would at least give him game time. Knock off some rust. But that hasn’t been mentioned at all.

Thankfully for the Hawks, no one gives a shit around here about them in the summer. So Crow can not be on the ice all summer and they can say everything is fine and no one’s really going to look any deeper.

But until you actually see #50 out there, you’re never going to know. And the Hawks are going to have to find a way to shield themselves from this disaster again in case Crow isn’t going to be there. Which might not be possible, because there are only four or five guys who can do what Crow does. Do you make a play for a Bernier, or Lehtonen (barf), or Khudobin to get you out of a few weeks? Or one of Grubauer or Holtby if the Caps make a choice? Is that even possible? Bring Carter Hutton back? He wants to start full-time. How does that affect the cap room you have now?

The questions on this go deeper than the Hawks really want to admit.

Everything Else

Night Songs – Round 1 Day 5: When The NHL Learns Tough Generally Means Stupid

By Sam Fels 1642 0

Y’know, I didn’t think I’d enjoy the Knights playoff run, however long it went. But I gotta admit I was all in on their WWE intros for Games 1 and 2, because VEGAS. And as the Kings have descended deeper and deeper into being boring, stupid, and ugly, I’m all for Vegas ridding us of their presence as quickly as possible.

Elsewhere, the Caps refuse to learn the same lesson over and over and the Flyers are cute. Let’s spin this right round, baby.

Penguins 5 – Flyers 1 (PIT leads 2-1)

Well it’s nice that the Flyera and Brian Elliot gave it a shot in Game 2, but I think they should probably get used to this. And frankly this is the normal state of Cold Ones. They get a playoff flameout from their goalie, we spend all summer listening to the drama of how they’re going to solve it this time, and then it happens all over again the next season. We’ve been doing this most of our lives, pretty much since Hextall retired. This time the rumors will be Holtby or Grubauer, or maybe Reimer out of Florida, or something equally as silly. Anyway, the Flyers blue line isn’t very good and is getting exposed. That’s really what matters here.

Jets 2 – Wild 6 (WPG leads 2-1)

As much as some series look like mismatches, a sweep is a rare thing. Even when the Hawks were actually good for so long, they only did it twice and were only swept once (as we all know). That’s out of nine years. So with the Jets travel problems–and yes the temptation is to say these are professional athletes and flying in on the day of game shouldn’t be a problem especially when it’s only like an hour flight but think about how you feel after flying–it’s not surprising the Wild were able to come up with one inspired effort in this series. They’re still utterly fucked and really need to get out of the way to get to the series we all want to watch.

Jackets 5 – Capitals 4 OT (CBJ leads 2-0)

This was a weird one. John Tortorella did not deserve that win because of the shell the Jackets went into in the 3rd and OT. The Jackets have easily chased down the Capitals when behind, and the best plan against them is to keep doing that. Sure, it’s easy to back up when you have Bobrovsky behind it all, but you can’t expect him to make 60 saves every time. The Caps are hardly a great defensive team, and were having goalie issues. What happened to the “Safe is Death” guy? The Caps really should be up 2-0 this series.

But they’re not, and it’s partly because they employ the league’s biggest moron. Who was a 1st round pick, by the way. Twice this series Tom Wilson has picked up an unconscionably dumb penalty that the Jackets have scored a tying goal on, and yet they still toss him out there regularly and/or he won’t change his ways. He should have been stapled to the bench after yesterday’s. And really the Caps ran around most of the game like that, and still had the game in the palm of their hands. I gotta say the highlight was in OT when Kuznetsov was set up in the slot by Ovechkin and he decided to try and set up Wilson instead. That’s the mark of a team that doesn’t want to take responsibility. And yet the Caps could easily take the next two in Ohio because the Jackets haven’t really done anything except accept what’s been handed to them. This isn’t over yet.

Knights 3 – Kings 2 (VGK leads 3-0)

This series has been unwatchable. And it got more so last night when it became clear the Kings have run out of answers or ideas, and hence tried to goon the Knights out of the building with a bunch of bullshit before and after whistles. As you can see, it worked a treat. The Kings still can’t score, are barely trying to score, and deserve to be with their ass in the dirt as they are. The Knights kept their head down, didn’t fall for any of it, and then undressed Oscar Fantenburg for their winner. Drew Doughty also got lost for their third goal, which is wonderful. The Kings have been boring, unimaginative, and frankly a pox on the playoffs and I’ll be glad when they’re gone. Oh, and then there’s shit like this from their feed:

Get out of my life.

Everything Else

Night Songs – Round 1 Day 4: The Real Thing And Not

By Sam Fels 1779 0

Three of the big four were on display last night, if you consider the Preds, Jets, Bruins, and Lightning the Big Four (apologies to the Penguins, who are probably going to win it just because it’s this thing they do). All three won. Two of them looked like the business. One continues to appear vulnerable. And one team that wants to consider itself among the bourgeois got its dick kicked in and it was hilarious.

Avalanche 4 – Predators 5 (NSH leads 2-0)

The Predators have done what you’d ask, hold serve at home. They’ve not looked great doing it, and the Avs are just about the most limited team to enter the playoffs in a long while. These performances–falling behind, letting a team hang around, trading chances–almost certainly isn’t going to fly against a better team. And oh, Johansen continues to do nothing and that will matter. This series will get interesting in Denver when Jared Bednar can throw out MacKinnon against him whenever he wants. That won’t be enough, because any team with Blake Comeau on it isn’t a good one. Still, the cracks are there.

Devils 3 – Lightning 5 (TB leads 2-0)

The Lightning have the same lead the Predators do, but they’ve gone about it by thwacking the team they’re playing twice and looking the real deal. It wasn’t as impressive as Game 1, and the Devils carried the play for long stretches, but there’s nowhere New Jersey can go if Keith Kinkaid has turned back into Kieth Kinkaid and Corey Schneider is struggling to find it.

Leafs 3 – Bruins 7 (BOS leads 2-0)

The amount of digital self-immolation were are mere days from when the Leafs lose this in four or five games is really hard to fathom. Before the season started, anyone who wasn’t painted blue or didn’t have cigarette dude as its avi pointed out the Leafs blue line was a problem. It was pointed out before the playoffs, facing a lethal Bruins team. And yet no one wanted to hear it, it seems. The blue line has been torn apart in two games. The Bruins haven’t needed a ton of chances, but they’ve gotten prime ones because Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner and Ron Hainsey aren’t up to the test. It’s kind of amazing that in the first period the Bruins had only 37.4% of the attempts and yet 56% of the scoring chances. When you breach the Leafs, you breach them good. Also, Freddie Andersen in the playoffs looks a lot like this. Leafs fans will point out that it’s the suspension of Nazem Kadri that fucked them over, but he wasn’t going to make up four goals and he’s exactly where he deserves to be. The Leafs are playing all the wrong games, and getting borked at the only one that matters. And frankly no one will miss them.

Sharks 3 – Ducks 2 (SJ leads 2-0)

The Sharks are the only team to take both road games, though the Jackets have the opportunity to do so today. While Mikkel Boedker did his best to torpedo his own team, the rest did exactly what they were supposed to. It helps when Ryan Getzlaf is only interested in getting the hell out of there, Corey Perry can’t score and can only do Corey Perry things at the worst possible time, and Ryan Kesler’s legs were left in 2014. The Ducks defense is really good, but is pushing the play to no one and desperately missed Cam Fowler. Meanwhile the Sharks’ youngsters like Donskoi, Meier, and especially Hertl are raising their games where the Ducks can’t find anyone. It’s looking bleak, and the Sharks haven’t even needed Joe Thornton yet.

 

Everything Else

Night Songs – Round 1 Day 3: Disband The Kings

By Sam Fels 1796 0

Clearly the highlight of the evening were the reaction shots of Bruce Boudreau as the Jets put his Wild to the sword again last night. You can tell he knows he’s utterly fucked here, and would have been even if Ryan Suter had been healthy. I wonder if that filters down to his team. We know his panic stations-like attitude in previous Game 7s always did. Anyway, let’s run it through on this drippy Saturday.

Flyers 5 – Penguins 1 (Tied 1-1)

See, a lot of people think the Brian Elliot Experience means he’s getting punctured like Boromir every outing. Not so. The Elliot Experience means that he’s going to put together just enough good games, or stretches, to make you believe in him before he becomes a turned-over turtle. So was last night. He was excellent, Matt Murray definitely wasn’t, Flyers win, and now they’re believing again. But don’t you worry. Elliot will shit a chicken either in Game 3 or Game 4, and the Penguins will assuredly win the next two, whichever it is. This is the way he wants it.

Wild 1 – Jets 4 (Jets lead 2-0)

There probably isn’t going to be a more lopsided series than this one. The Kings-Knights one has been but Jonathan Quick has kept it from getting silly. Devan Dubnyk quite simply is not capable, nor are the Kings facing the firepower the Wild are. It sounds weird to gush about just how loaded the Jets are, but there was their fourth line, a dominant fourth line, getting their third and icing goal last night. There’s nowhere for the Wild to turn. And the first two Jets goals were a result of a d-man simply going cowboy. That’s Dustin Byfuglien’s thing of course, it’s not as much Tyler Myers’s. But that’s what it takes at this time of year, because it’s the only way you’re going to outnumber the defensive team and get coverage to break down. This looks a lot like the Wild’s 2013 series against the Hawks, where they hung around in Game 1 but didn’t have another gear to find in Game 2 when the superior team could relax a bit. Sure, they might spasm a home win, but they’re toast.

Kings 1 – Knights 2 OT (Knights lead 2-0)

Everyone needs this series to end now. The Kings might point to the absence (deserved, by the way) of Drew Doughty as the reason they basically went Mourinho on this one, but it’s no different than what they did in Game 1 when they had the gap-toothed scumbag in the lineup. They’re terrified of the Knights’ speed, because their blue line is slow and basically bad, so they’re going to do everything to keep it under wraps. The result has been two games that have set the sport back 20 years, and basically have us longing for the NBA Playoffs today. Compare Kopitar and the Kings this year to Toews and the Hawks all you want, but if the Hawks put on this kind of faire you wouldn’t watch and we’d resort to doing ketamine or something. Maybe Kings fans constantly complain about the individual awards their players don’t win simply so they can feel anything after watching this team all season. The lyrics to “Comfortably Numb” were written about watching a full season of this.

Everything Else

Night Songs – Round 1 Day 2: Can’t Get Out Of Its Own Way

By Sam Fels 1716 0

I don’t know how the NHL couldn’t figure out to stagger the start of the playoffs, but then again it never does. Sure, I don’t know what the building conflicts are for each city, though there seem to be only a handful that are housing both NBA and NHL playoffs teams. Toronto, Boston, DC, Philly are the only four. But because of whatever, we had five games to deal with last night and only three the night before. And like the NHL playoffs always seems to do, some wonderful play and high drama is being overshadowed by the height of dumbassery and useless vengeance/dick-measuring that this time of year tends to descend into. And then the Leafs lose. Let’s go around:

Leafs 1 – Bruins 5 (BOS leads 1-0)

It’s never a good sign when someone on your team decides he’s going to out-Brad Marchand Brad Marchand. But step to the front of the line of imbeciles, Nazem Kadri! I know being a shithead has always been a part of Kadri’s game too, but when you’re already down and basically getting thwacked, it just makes you look even more like you emerged from some swamp somewhere and can’t count to four, which Kadri assuredly can’t. And the best part is Kadri had been penalized for a dumbass boarding call just minutes before he decided to reenact Asuka’s hip attack on Tommy Wingels’s head against the boards. That’s good coaching, Mike Babcock! What leadership!

If the league is serious about getting this bullshit out of the game, and it never will attain any sort of status until it does, Kadri should be tossed for the rest of the series. That’s a deliberate attempt to injure an opponent. There can’t be a bigger crime on the ice. Whereas if I squint and could see where Drew Doughty’s hit was simply poor aim or poorly executed but an actual attempt at a “hockey play,” this was simply assault.

Anyway, the Leafs blue line sucks deep pond scum and the Bruins are going to treat it like a lit up runway all series. And then we won’t have to listen to Leafs fans anymore and quite frankly I’m all for it. Oh, the Leafs firepower will probably spasm a win at home, maybe even two, but this won’t be as close as it looks when it ends.

Devils 2 – Lightning 5 (TB Diddlers leads 1-0)

Feels like this game went on in the dark. I still have no idea what the Devils are doing here other than Taylor Hall, and he did his best to drag them to a startling Game 1 win. But the Bolts are simply too much. They get you from so many places. Fast forward us to TB-Boston already. The rest of this is just a charcuterie plate.

Jackets 4 – Capitals 3 OT (CBJ leads 1-0)

Not much was expected of the Caps this time around, so you really have to hand it to them that they stuck to the script of throwing up all over themselves anyway. They even let Thomas Vanek score a playoff goal, which is a real trick. Three third period penalties is a stroke of genius, including Tom “No Seriously He’s A Good Player And Not A Detriment To The Team/Society” Wilson going full Battle Of Troy for a charging call that let Vanek tie the game. Watching Panarin come up with that to win the game didn’t exactly feel good, but then again I don’t remember him doing that at any point in the playoffs with the Hawks either. I still don’t know what the Jackets have outside of him and their top pairing, as Bob wasn’t particularly great last night, but if all you have to do is stand still while the Caps fall over, the Jackets are more than capable of that.

Avalanche 2 – Predators 5 (NSH leads 1-0)

As we kind of said in the preview, Nathan MacKinnon is going to do everything he can to make this a series. But given how limited the rest of the team was before Erik Johnson’s and Semyon Varlamov’s injury, there’s only so much he can do. Because as anyone with two eyes that aren’t Canadian or draped in yellow thought would happen, he ate Doughboy Johansen’s lunch and then spit it back at him. When he was out there against RyJo Sen, MacKinnon had a 74 Corsi % and an 85% scoring chance percentage. Laviolette quickly had to change gears and throw Bonino at MacKinnon, which was much better. But the Preds just have too many weapons for Colorado, which  you saw. And Rinne was excellent. But I have a feeling the Avs are going to at least lay down a blue print that Mark Scheifele will be very interested in. Oh, and Johansen should be suspended too for his charge, the only thing he did all night, but won’t be because the Preds have become the NHL’s little precious.

Sharks 3 – Ducks 0 (SJ leads 1-0)

There was a time when you’d take real joy in this. But now the Ducks aren’t even interesting. I’m not sure I knew they pipped the Sharks for home ice because A) it won’t matter and B) most of the time I’ve forgotten they exist. They sure played like it last night, getting skulled in the 2nd period when all the scoring happened, leaving the Sharks to do the beach chair act in the 3rd. Oh look, Ryan Getzlaf had one shot on goal. Not like him to just meander around the outside in the playoffs or anything. Ryan Johansen must have so many Getzlaf posters on his wall. The Sharks probably don’t even need Joe Thornton for this one.

Everything Else

Watching The Party – FFUD’s 1st Round Preview: Blue Jackets vs. Caps or Oh Right, These Guys

By Sam Fels 1420 0

 vs. 

SCHEDULE: Game 1 Thursday, Game 2 Sunday, Game 3 April 17th, Game 4 April 19th

You wonder if both these teams won’t take a dive to avoid more Penguin-induced trauma, especially the Capitals. Of all the series this one is the most picked to be an “upset, though I’m not really sure how much worse the Jackets are than the Caps. Still, it’s a 1 vs. 4 so it would be considered that. No one’s terribly impressed by Washington, and yet I’m not sure anyone’s terribly impressed by Columbus either. Let’s go through it.

Goalies: TURN IN YOUR BADGE AND GUN, BOBROVSKY! This is clearly a big advantage for the Jackets. Bob had a bit of a blip in the middle of the season, but took off in March with a .935. There’s a reason he’s a two-time Vezina winner. Still, he’s a goalie that’s never seen the second round, though both times he’s gone to the playoffs with the Jackets they’ve been completely overmatched by Pittsburgh. That’s not really the case here, though the Caps don’t lack offensive ability either. OH BOB! YOU CAME AND YOU FAILED TO ADVANCE US! AND THEN THEY PUT YOU AWAY! OH BOB!

One thing the Caps haven’t done in their playoff collapses of late is a goalie controversy. Braden Holtby has generally been ok, just not good enough or there’s been another problem. They’ve got one now. All signs point to Phillip Grubauer stepping in for Holtby, as he’s outplayed him this season by some distance. Which has led to Barry Trotz not turning his starter into paste for once. The smart way to go is to go to Grubauer, and if he spits it than Holtby can be the conquering hero. Go the other way, and Holtby falters, and you basically lose him for the whole thing while heaping even more pressure on what was supposed to be your backup. This will give Grubauer a net. Still, it’s turning your team’s hopes over to a backup who hasn’t done this before, along with all the baggage the Caps carry to start with. No pressure, kid.

Defense: I guess this is supposed to be a strength for the Jackets, but past Seth Jones and Zach Werenski I don’t see it. Davis Savard blows and always has. Don’t even get me started on Ian Cole. If Ryan Murray were going to be any good we’d know by now. I guess Nutivarra has promise, so I’ll reserve judgement. Overall, the top pairing is great. Past that, it’s just not impressive and if there’s one thing the Caps can do it’s skate.

Meanwhile, the Caps blue line seems underrated. John Carlson’s underlying numbers aren’t that impressive, but he put up over 60 points in his free agent year and is going to be very, very rich soon. We love Michal Kempny around here, but is he really ready to carry a major, top four role for a playoff team? Dmitry Orlov is wonderful, but even he’s had an understated year. Matt Niskanen has always been the definition of “solid.” It’s a better top four than the Jackets for sure, and Brooks Orpik’s corpse probably can’t do too much damage from the third pairing.

Forwards: It’s Panarin and everyone else. If he doesn’t score, the Jackets are sunk. He had 82 points,  no other forward had over 50. If you trust Pierre-Luc Dubois as a #1 center, you’re getting better drugs than I do. Cam Atkinson is an analytic darling, and would have gotten over 50 points if he hadn’t missed 17 games. Speedy, shifty wingers tend to do well in the playoffs. Ask the Penguins. But beyond that? Thomas Vanek? Stop yourself. That’s just another word for, “Radim Vrbata.” Nick Foligno sucks. Brandon Dubinsky is assuredly going to take a penalty that costs them a game. You can’t make a case here.

As for the Caps, they have their own Panarin in Ovechkin, but they also have a ton more. They have an actual second line with Kuznetsov and especially if Timothy Jimothy gets his head out of his ass/checkbook. Lars Eller and Brett Connolly are hiding in the bottom six, and feel like breakout playoff performers, especially going against the dreck the Jackets have on their bottom six. This isn’t the loaded group of the past two years, but it’s still pretty good.

Prediction: Bobrovsky himself makes this a tough task, though he’s he was pretty penetrable against the Penguins last year. Wherever I look besides the crease, the Caps are just better. But they’re still the Caps. Special teams will make a difference here, but the Caps have the better power play. Unless they Caps real hard, they get to dance with the Penguins again. Caps in 6. 

Everything Else

Night Songs – Round 1 Day 1: Safe Is Death

By Sam Fels 1421 0

On the first night of the playoffs, we learned that if you’re trying to squeeze a game or series to death and try and squeak out of it, it’s awfully hard to pull off if you’re playing a functional team. You can be Guy Boucher and get a sweetheart draw a couple years, but the Wild and Kings weren’t so lucky last night.

Flyers 0 – Penguins 7 (Penguins lead 1-0)

Wild 2 – Jets 3 (Jets lead 1-0)

I understand where Bruce Boudreau is coming from. The Wild do not have near the talent that the Jets do, and that’s especially true without Ryan Suter. They’ve lost some of their get-up-and-go, and certainly their best shutdown guy. So basically the only solution is to keep it tight, and hope you can eke out a win on the road if Dubnyk is up to the task. He nearly was. Still, giving up nearly 20 shots in the 3rd is going to lead to a loss almost all of the time and it’s not really what the Wild are built to do. Spurgeon and Dumba aren’t really shut down guys, not that they’re to blame. This felt like the best punch the Wild can throw, and now they’re really up against it. The Jets have gotten settled, and they have a ’09 Hawks feel to it. A little nervous in their first playoff game with expectations, found a way to come back in the 3rd, and now that they’re comfortable…

Kings 0 – Knights 1 (Knights lead 1-0)

Allow me to get soccer-y here for an analogy. The 2000 European Championships was one of the best tournaments in recent memory. Full of goals, drama, and creative attacking play (helped by England crashing out early). And during the semifinal, a dour match between Holland and Italy, BBC analyst Alan Hansen said this, “We’ve had a wonderful tournament, with more goals and flair and creativity than we possibly imagined. And then…here come the Italians…”

Well, here come the Kings.

I’ve read all year that the Kings have changed and are a little more open and that’s why they improved. My. Ass. This was vintage Sutter stuff and was enough to make you drive a screwdriver into your temple. All on the outside, all on the boards, all dump-ins and all very careful. Yes, John Stevens knows his defense is too slow to let the Knights get out in space, and maybe this is the only choice. Still, the Kings have more front-end talent with Kopitar, Carter, Toffoli, and maybe one other. You’d like to see them at least, I don’t know, try? Anyway, good for Marc-Andre Fleury.

 

Everything Else

Watching The Party – FFUD’s First Round Preview: Avalanche vs. Predators or There Can Be Only One

By Sam Fels 1889 0

 vs. 

SCHEDULE: Game 1 Thursday, Game 2 Saturday, Game 3 Monday, Game 4 April 18th

There’s been so much hype and yapping coming out of Nashville that they’ve gone from a team and fanbase I generally had no problem to one I’d be happy to see eat it and as soon as possible. Sadly, a one-man team is almost certainly not going to be able to pull off the job, and that’ll give us the Jets-Predators series we all want to watch anyway. Still, it could get trickier than it needs to be for the Preds.

Goalies: The Avs are going to have to resort to their backup, though they have one of the better backups in the league. Semyon Varlamov hurt a tentacle and is done for the year, so it’ll be up to Jonathan Bernier. Bernier was about league average this year, which for your #2 is exactly what you’d want. Since taking over the past few games he’s barely been ok, though he shut down the Blues enough in the last game of the season. Still, he wasn’t very good against the Sharks, Ducks, or Kings, three playoff teams. And the Avs really needed those wins. So that’s a problem.

The Predators have no such problems. Thanks to Vasilevskiy’s fall-off this year, there’s not much doubt that Pekka Rinne is going to win the Vezina this year. There’s no way around a .927 this year, and that’s what Rinne put up. Rinne had been an underwhelming playoff performer until last season, where he put up a .930. Most goalies don’t figure out something at 35. Clearly Rinne has. This matchup alone is probably enough for the Preds to get through, and easily .

Defense: Let’s face it, the Avs roll into the playoffs with probably the worst blue line of any playoff team. Patrik Nemeth and Deputy Samuel Girard are on the top pairing. Tyson Barrie is about the only experience they have at anything with plodding Nikita Zadorov. It’s a real issue. And considering the speed the Preds have, they’re going to get buried. Which means Bernier is going to have to bail them out, and he’s not really equipped to do that.

The Preds blue line… you don’t need me to tell you. It’s the best of the teams left. There are at least three top pairing guys here, and you could make a case for Ekholm if you want. And if they keep Alexei Emelin on the third pairing where he belongs, they will have these four guys on the ice for 45-50 minutes of each game. That’s enough.

Forwards: The only thing you can say for the Avs is that they’ll have the best player in this series. Nathan MacKinnon is your Hart Trophy winner, unless every voter had an embolism while voting (which they did). The Avs only hope is he goes nuclear, and even that might not be enough. Past his line, there’s just nothing. Tyson Jost and Alex Kerfoot have nice futures ahead of them but they’ve got a long way to go. Carl Soderberg do anything for you?

Meanwhile, the Preds are deep and fast. Even if Ryan Johansen is a dough-filled dog now that he got paid (and he is), and even if MacKinnon eats him alive and spits him back out to eat him again (he will), the Avs aren’t going to have an answer for Kyle Turris’s line or Nick Bonino as a #3, which he won the past two Cups as. Johansen might be a problem in future rounds, but it really won’t matter here.

Prediction: You just can’t find a path for the Avs, other than HOCKEY. MacKinnon could steal them a game, maybe even two, but you wouldn’t count on it given all the Preds have. Let’s get to the main event here. Preds in 5. 

Everything Else

Watching The Party – FFUD’s First Round Preview: Leafs-Bruins or The Complain Department

By Sam Fels 1709 0

 vs. 

SCHEDULE: Game 1 Thursday, Game 2 Saturday, Game 3 April 16th, Game 4 April 19th

We all know the format for the NHL playoffs is pretty stupid. In fact the NHL playoffs, if you really think about it, are kind of stupid. We just played an 82-game regular season to figure out who the best teams are, and now we’re going to subject them to the vagaries of luck and injury in a two-month battle royal that doesn’t really give us the best team, just the hottest one. But let’s leave that and say the divisional system as constructed is a problem. So when fans and media say it’s not fair that two of the seven best teams in the league have to face each other in the first round, they’re not exactly wrong.

But because it’s Toronto and Boston, I don’t give a flying fuck. Fuck ’em.

Let’s break it down.

Goalies: There can’t be a worse person to be than the Leafs goalie in the playoffs. No one is watched by more and more closely. And really, Freddie Andersen has always been just good enough to break your heart. He was excellent two years ago in the first round against Nashville, but only played five games. His three other campaigns in the playoffs have not been impressive, though some were effected by Bruce Boudreau’s treating his goalies like they were foosball players. Really, Andersen had the same season this year that he did last year, and he was fine against the Caps. But fine wasn’t enough then, and fine probably isn’t going to be enough against the Bruins. He is capable of more, we’ve just rarely seen it.

If we wrote this a couple months ago, we’d say the Bruins have a big advantage here. But Tuuke Nuke ’em has only been ok since the end of February and was horrific in three April starts. However his playoff pedigree is far ahead of Andersen’s, and he wasn’t the problem against the Senators last year. So it’s whether we go with his current form, which is basically “meh,” or what he’s done in the playoffs before which is much more. Still, I would expect Tuukka to be slightly better than Freddie at worst.

Defense: It’s kind of a measure of the firepower of the Toronto forwards that they amassed as many points as they did with this blue line. It’s still not very good, even if they figured out that Travis Dermott was a neat toy to have every night. It’s not that Jake Gardiner or The Mike Rielly Assassination or Rod Hainsey are bad… it’s just that you’d struggle to think of them as top pairing guys. They’ve been fascinated with Nikita Zaitsev for a couple seasons and yet no one’s quite explained what it is he does. Roman Polak is a circus bear. Even with the Bruins banged up whoever they throw out against Bergeron and Marchand and Pastrnak you’d have to give the B’s the advantage. And if you don’t keep a top line from scoring in a series, you’re kind of fucked.

The Bs will be without Brandon Carlo, as his ankle went Gumby, but they did get the moon-faced mouth-breather Charlie McAvoy back which is more important. He’s reinvigorated Zdeno Chara to a new contract, and he’s one of the bigger reasons that the Bruins were so good this year. Torey Krug as a bum-slayer is what you’d want, and Kevan Miller is better than I think even though his first name is stupid. Adam McQuaid has a big, dumb face and a big, dumb game but thanks to McAvoy the Bs have a top pairing where the Leafs don’t.

Forwards: Whatever arguments you might have with their defense, the only team that can even claim to have the Leafs’ top nine right now is Winnipeg. When JVR and Tyler Bozak are on your third line, you are the envy of pretty much the whole league. Which means the Leafs can get at Krug in his own end and McQuaid anywhere through Kadri and Marleau and Marner and even Plekanec on the 4th line. The depth is scary and the Leafs’ best hope. It’s also a ton of speed the Bs are going to ask Chara to deal with, and he don’t got none no more.

The Bruins will start this series without both Nashes, Riley and Rick. Though missing Rick in the playoffs really isn’t a big deal. Without them though, this starts to look a little one line-ish. It’s a hell of a line, with Pastrnak-Bergeron-Marchand, but they’ll need more. Krejci and Backes on the second isn’t the worst you could do, but comparing it to the Leafs and you see the problem. Donato and Heinen are kids farther down the lineup that could be weapons, especially against the iffy Leafs defense. But the Bs will need some people to return before too long. And Babcock is going to play Komarov 25 minutes anyway. The other thing to note is that since 2011, Brad Marchand has been a playoff dog, and if that continues this definitely tips to the Leafs.

Prediction: I want to pick the Leafs, I really do. Their forward depth is going to be hard to deal with. But I don’t trust their blue line or Andersen to keep the Bs top line off the scoresheet, and the important players on the Bs have all done this before. Unless Marchand pulls his Copperfield act in the spring again, the Bs seem too much. It’s going to take a while, though. Bruins in 7.