Faxes from Uncle Dale

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  • Atop The Sugar Pile – 1/20: Top Top, Top Of The Pops

    Atop The Sugar Pile – 1/20: Top Top, Top Of The Pops

    The Dizzying Highs

    The Top Line: We don’t usually split this but what’re you gonna do? It’s hard to talk about Jonathan Toews without Domink Kubalik, considering they piled up 15 points and eight goals in just four games together. Toews especially has been delirious, with 42 points in 39 games. That doesn’t mean his possession-dominance has returned, but when he’s piling up the points that seems a bit nitpick-y. And he definitely domed whatever the Leafs threw at him on Saturday, which is always nice. Reports of his demise, some of which were authored by me in October, were obviously greatly exaggerated.

    Kubalik is yet another showcase of the Hawks’ European scouting, and hopefully this time they don’t cash him in for a plodding, third-pairing d-man. Kubalik’s success of course makes the offseason even trickier, as if he does get to 30 goals then you can’t just hand him $2.5M and tell him to take it as they were probably hoping, even as a restricted free agent. But we’ll save that for May and June and whatever. No, he’s not going to shoot 30% for the rest of the year as he has this week, but it’s clear he is something of a ruthless finisher and also has a sense of how to get open.

    The Terrifying Lows

    No One? – It’s hard to pick someone out when you go 4-0 during the week and do it to the tune of 18-7 in the aggregate. So yeah, Drake Caggiula’s four penalties last night weren’t ideal, but who cares? Kirby Dach could be scoring more, but then he goes and does that last night and you see what might be possible down the road very quickly. The power play still hasn’t really chimed in yet, and the hope was Boqvist would goose it a bit more. But when you’re killing every penalty and finishing at evens at the rate the Hawks are, it’s not a big deal. That’s why Quenneville never really cared about the power play.

    So maybe we’ll set it at the hype for tomorrow night’s game, which we’ll cover in-depth tomorrow. You know it’s going to get a little out of hand, but the video package is probably going to bring a tear to everyone’s eye. And frankly, I’m crying too much these days (though usually out of joy thanks to Gini Wijnaldum).

    The Creamy Middles

    Corey Crawford – While the headline has been how good the Hawks goaltending has been, the truth is that most of that has been Robin Lehner. Corey, who I will always defend and root for and am basically going to be the leading voice stating he should be the one kept and not Lehner next season, has only been all right at best. He flashed the form we know and love earlier in the season, but that went away. And even with these two great performances in Montreal and Toronto he’s only at .910 for the year, which is not the standard he’s set. And maybe he can’t get there again, but I don’t necessarily believe that.

    I had thought he was still adjusting to splitting starts. But he got a row of them when Lehner had a bit of a knee-knack, and his performance against Detroit and Nashville were…iffy. Earlier in the year when he got a stretch of starts for the only other time, he was much better in Vegas and in Pittsburgh. Maybe he still hasn’t quite come to terms with the gaps between appearances. Now he’ll likely go two or more weeks.

    Still, the Hawks will need him. And they’ll need him to be really good. It’s still there. I know it. And it’s more satisfying when we see it from him.

  • High On The Hog: Midterms

    High On The Hog: Midterms

    The Rockford IceHogs have seen the midpoint of the 2019-20 season come and go. It has been an up and down campaign for the piglets. A young bunch of Hawks prospects gelled early in the season and was playing well in the first three months.

    Then Hogs began being called up. And injured. And injured some more.

    The IceHogs have struggled as the calendar turned, going 3-4-1-1 in January after dropping their final four games in December. In the nine games this month, Rockford has managed just 1.56 goals per contest.

    With no fortification from above on the immediate horizon, the IceHogs signed a slew of players to tryout agreements. Three of the ECHL’s top point-producers, Spencer Watson (January 5), Peter Quenneville (January 11) and Gabriel Gagne (January 18), all inked PTOs with Rockford. The Hogs signed Joshua Winquist to a PTO on January 6, releasing him from the deal after three games of action.

    Watson skated five games for Rockford before an injury. Gagne made an immediate impact with a goal and an assist in Sunday’s 2-0 win over the Chicago Wolves. Quenneville has appeared in four games since coming aboard.

    The list of injured players is lengthy. Rockford has had to skate with just 11 forwards on numerous occasions over the last few weeks. With John Quenneville, Dylan Sikura and now Brandon Hagel returning to the Hogs after stints in Chicago, perhaps better times are coming.

    Rockford is still in the hunt for a playoff berth 41 games into the season. They are fifth in the Central Division with a .512 points percentage.  After Milwaukee and Iowa, any of the six remaining Central teams could surge into the third and fourth-place positions.

    Here’s a look at how things stand in Winnebago County, starting with the infirmary…I mean, the forwards.

     

    Forward

    Tyler Sikura has been the constant in the IceHogs lineup. The captain is Rockford’s top scorer, with 24 points (11 G, 13 A). He also leads the team with a plus-eight skater rating.

    Both John Quenneville (8 G, 7 A) and Dylan Sikura (9 G, 8 A) were a big part of the Hogs early season success. Jacob Nilsson (6 G, 12 A) has also been a steady presence in the lineup. Like Sikura the Elder, Nilsson has been on the ice for all 41 of Rockford’s games.

    Brandon Hagel (13 G, 8 A) was easily the club’s top-performing rookie over the first half. He was recalled by the Blackhawks this past week but has been reassigned without taking part in a game. MacKenzie Entwistle (7 G, 10 A) has been one of the Hogs bright spots this month, showing game at both ends of the ice.

    Just as Phillipp Kurashev was beginning to heat up in his rookie season, he suffered a concussion in Manitoba on December 29. He hasn’t played since. Rookie Tim Soderlund has been out of the lineup since January 3. Mikael Hakkarainen missed most of the first three months with an injury. He played seven games for Rockford before a January 5 injury shelved him again.

    Anton Wedin, another solid two-way player for the IceHogs, last played on December 31. Matthew Thompson, who was recalled from Indy to help fill out the roster, promptly was injured January 3. Alexandre Fortin has been on the shelf a couple of times this season but has been back in the lineup this past week.

    Joseph Cramarossa, who has three goals and six helpers in 26 games since arriving via trade in November, has provided experience and stability on the Hogs bottom six. His shootout tally gave Rockford a big win in Grand Rapids on Thursday night. AHL contract Nick Moutrey (4 G, 3 A) has also played well in a fourth-line role.

    Defense

    Philip Holm, Rockford’s best defenseman of the first three months, opted out of his contract to play in Europe. This has left a void on the back end.

    Nicolas Beaudin (2 G, 8 A) hasn’t been spectacular in his first 38 games as a pro. I haven’t been enamored by his hockey sense like others have been. He’s had his share of rookie gaffes and his passing hasn’t been as sharp as you’d like to see. That said, he is showing some improvement and should get lots of opportunity to refine his game in the next few months.

    Lucas Carlsson has been the Hogs most noticeable performer aside from Holm. With four goals and a dozen assists, Carlsson has also shown some quality puck-handling skills. His plus-six rating is tops among the defense.

    I thought Chad Krys (1 G, 4 A) would have a bit more impact on the scoreboard than he has. Krys did pick up his first AHL goal in Thursday’s win over Grand Rapids. Joni Tuulola (2 G, 3 A) has probably been as steady from a defensive standpoint as anyone the fist half.

    Ian McCoshen joined the team after the Hawks traded Alexi Saarela to Florida back in October. He has contributed some snarl to the blueline, along with some dumb penalties and six helpers since his arrival in Rockford.

    Ben Youds is in Rockford on a PTO. He’s been a regular in the lineup since signing on December 9, even skating as a forward for coach Derek King when things got too thin up front. Dmitri Osipov was recalled from Indy December 7 and has provided solid minutes.

    On Sunday, the Blackhawks reassigned Dennis Gilbert to Rockford. This move gives the Hogs another player who can help their cause. Gilbert played 20 games in Chicago with a goal and two assists. The big defenseman has just 11 games with the IceHogs this season.

    Goalie

    IceHogs net-minders have a combined goals against average of 2.87 and a .908 save percentage. By and large, this has been the strength of the team. The three goalies have faced a lot of high-percentage shots and kept Rockford in a lot of games.

    Matt Tomkins has made a case for an NHL entry deal, posting a 5-3 record with a team-low 2.62 GAA. He also helped Team Canada win the Spengler Cup.

    After struggling mightily in the first two months, Collin Delia found himself out of the mix for a couple weeks in November. Since December 3, the Cucamonga Kid has been stellar, going 6-3 with a 1.59 GAA and a .949 save percentage.

    Kevin Lankinen is Rockford’s lone All-Star selection, though his has had some struggles over the last few weeks. Currently, Lankinen sports a 3.03 GAA to go with a .908 save percentage.

    Collectively, this three-way in goal has been pretty good for Rockford. Again, they have fended off pressure from opponents on a nightly basis and is a big reason the Hogs have been competitive.

     

    Tidbits Good And Bad

    • The power play is the worst in the AHL’s Western Conference, connecting on just 10.7 percent of Rockford’s opportunities.
    • The penalty kill is 28th in the league, at 78.2 efficiency.
    • The IceHogs are 12-8 at home and 8-11-1-1 away from the BMO this season. Unlike previous seasons, the remaining schedule is pretty balanced between home and road games.
    • Cramarossa’s six fighting majors places him tied for second in the AHL in the catagory. With 15 FMs on the season, Rockford is tied for tenth in the league. The Hogs have been a bit feistier than in recent seasons.
    • The piglets are 4-1 in overtime games and are 3-1 in shootouts.
    • On Sunday, the IceHogs recalled G Chase Marchand from the Indy Fuel. Marchand hasn’t manned the net for the Fuel in over a month. He did make ten starts for Indy this season, most coming in November. He was 4-6 with a 2.56 goals against average and a .905 save percentage.

     

    First Semester Grade: B

    …and a solid one at that. This team is primarily comprised of greenhorns. Healthy or not, the Hogs have played hard. When healthy, Rockford has shown that they can play with the best teams in the Central Division. Even as crushing as the injury situation has been, the 20-19-1-1 record is very respectable and has the IceHogs in playoff contention.

    The key, of course, is how the roster evolves in the next couple of months. Getting players like Wedin, Kurashev and Soderlund upgrades the Hogs nearly as much as getting Quenneville and Sikura back.

    Maybe some veteran depth is provided for Rockford in a trade down the line. Perhaps not. The IceHogs sure could use some experienced scoring types in the final months of the season. However, a healthy batch of piglets could make things interesting down the stretch.

     

    Back To The Grind

    The Hogs split four games last week, losing 4-1 to Milwaukee Tuesday night before spitting two games in Grand Rapids Wednesday and Friday. Sunday, Rockford blanked the Wolves in Rosemont.

    This week is another busy stretch for the IceHogs. Monday afternoon sees them playing Belleville at the BMO Harris Bank Center. On Wednesday, they host Texas. A home-and-home with the division-leading Admirals is on the docket for the weekend. Friday’s tilt is in Milwaukee; the teams are in Rockford Saturday night.

    Follow me @JonFromi on twitter for thoughts and updates on the IceHogs throughout the season.

     

     

  • Game #50 – Jets 2, Hawks 5:

    Game #50 – Jets 2, Hawks 5:

    Box Score

    Natural Stat Trick

    Funny, on a night when the Hawks finally defeated a direct competitor for the playoffs, it won’t even grab the headlines. And maybe that’s the way they want it. They’ll have to do it more than a few more times between here and April, but every journey begins with one step. On the second of a back-to-back, where the Hawks have been strangely dominant, against a Jets team that should give them problems (though they have far more of their own), the Hawks not only got the win but eased to it.

    I’m not saying you should get excited, but if you want to start at least inching that way, go right ahead. Maybe the bye comes at the wrong time for them.

    Of course, none of this is why it’s a historic night. Let’s get to it.

    The Two Obs

    -The headline will be Patrick Kane reaching 1,000 points, and it should be. I have more than a few tangled thoughts about it, which I’ll get to tomorrow. But we should probably start labeling him, rightly, as the best the organization has ever had. Again, more tomorrow.

    -I mentioned in the preview that a big reason that the Hawks have ripped this off is that they’ve settled the bottom of the roster a bit better. Koekkoek and Maatta have gelled on the third pairing, and while neither are world-beaters or even definite NHL players, they’re better options than both Dennis Gilbert or Brent Seabrook right now (sorry, it hurts to say, but it’s true). Both were once again above water in possession tonight, and it’s a bigger deal than you might think to not have to run for the bomb shelter for 12-15 minutes a night when you toss out your third pairing.

    To boot tonight, the fourth line came up with two goals, and you’re going to win most times that happens.

    -Not a night Keith and Boqvist will want to hang on the wall, as they’re going to struggle with the size the Jets boast. Whatever, they got through it.

    -Flip side, Kirby Dach’s line had a great night, capped by Kampf’s goal. Kampf still is wildly a fish out of water playing as a wing on a scoring line but let’s leave that aside for tonight as his goal was the result of what Kirby Dach can be. A 150-foot rush where he looked pretty springy and got to the net and at least caused a rebound. The Hawks have shown the proper patience with Dach even though he hasn’t scored in ages, and you hope tonight’s performance is something he can build on. Certainly fatigue has to be playing a role and the bye will do him good. Wouldn’t mind seeing Caggiula on his line in the future as he’s a puck-retriever who isn’t lost on a scoring line, but that’s another discussion for another time.

    -Didn’t notice Patrik Laine until the goalie was pulled. It seems the Jets have done and are doing just about everything they can to bend the team around him, and he’s still giving second-line production. The dude might just be a passenger. Wouldn’t be shocked to hear trade rumors this summer.

    -Also their defense blows, and if you miss Tucker Poolman or an aged and swelling Byfuglien that much I can’t help you.

    -It would be easy to go pessimistic about this streak–pointing out that the Leafs were about to be on their bye, or that the Ducks, Habs, and Sens suck out loud, or that the Jets are a mess–but these were five games the Hawks had to have. And they got them. They’re still three points out, but now have no other teams to leap. They probably have to play at this pace for a long while to stay in it. But you have to believe there will be a Top Cat binge somewhere around here. And probably the power play will have a good few weeks just because. The goalies will always provide a high floor. And while I’d still bet the Knights and likely the Preds to eventually  zoom up the standings, i wouldn’t count on any of the Yotes or Oilers or Canucks to get too far away from the Hawks either.

    Basically it’s not going to take acts of God to keep the Hawks at least in it until the end of the season. And hey, it’s more fun and interesting when there’s something riding on the games. So let’s have some fun.

  • Game #50 – Jets vs. Hawks: Gamenight Tower

    Game #50 – Jets vs. Hawks: Gamenight Tower

    Everything you need for tonight’s soiree on the Westside…

    Preview

    Spotlight: Connor Hellebuyck

    Hedley Lamarr’s Muggers, Buggerers, and Bushwhackers

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineup & How They Were Built

  • Game #50 – Jets vs Hawks Preview – Relative Surplus Value

    Game #50 – Jets vs Hawks Preview – Relative Surplus Value

    vs

    Game Time: 6:00PM CST
    TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, SportsNet, NHL Network, WGN-AM 720
    Winnipeg Nights: Arctic Ice Hockey, Jets Nation

    Similar to The Gambler’s Fallacy (of being “due”), when a team is mediocre-to-bad, nearly every game represents the potential for turning things around. The periphery of the playoff picture in the NHL is the very definition of the bare minimum of competence as far as sports are concerned, and the Hawks have once again put together a handful of wins against a cornucopia of teams somehow even worse than they are, and one win last night against a supposed contender, albeit one whose number they seem to have and has a blue line beset by injuries. So naturally that sets them up for a divisional matchup against the visiting Jets tonight where they could creep even closer to a wild card spot in the proverbial four-point game, the type of game they have found stunningly impressive ways to shit themselves in under Coach Cool Youth Pastor in the past season and a half.

    (more…)

  • Game #50 – Jets vs. Hawks Spotlight: Atlas Hellebuyck

    We will also accept the name “Suspenders” Hellebuyck, as he’s the only thing keeping the Jets from getting pantsed most nights.

    You wouldn’t think a team would miss Dustin Byfuglien defensively, if at all. Generally not having to commit 20 minutes a night to a player who kind of wandered around the ice like he was looking for a pair of shoes he lost long ago would be a good thing. If you could replace him by focused players on either end of the ice. The Jets have not done that, as they also punted Jacob Trouba and Ben Chiarot, which was basically strip mining their blue line.

    And the results have been awful. The Jets are bottom-five in shots against per 60 minutes at evens, and they’re just a shred ahead of the Hawks in expected goals against, which is third-worst in the league. Up and down the lineup, you’ll see that most of their roster is drowning when it comes to xG%. They give up far too many chances.

    But they’re still in the playoff hunt thanks to Hellebuyck. He’s got the biggest difference between his actual save-percentage at evens and his expected-one, at least among starters. He’s ahead of Robin Lehner and Tuukka Rask. He’s the only thing keeping the Jets in it most nights, because they could easily be giving up five a night.

    Of course, the Jets hopes might rest on whether they can get him a rest at any point. Backup Laurent Brossoit has been terrible when he’s been healthy, which has meant that Hellebuyck leads the league in games played at 40. And considering the Jets are still outside the playoff picture, they can’t trust Brossoit with too many more starts from here on out either.

    Hellebuyck might be built for it. He’s played over 60 games the past two years, and two seasons ago led the league in appearances with 67. He backed that up with a .922 in the playoffs, so fatigue wasn’t a problem then. Last year he played 63 times, and had a .924 in March followed by an acceptable .913 in the playoffs. Still, you might wonder how many times the Jets want to keep pushing this button.

    If there’s been a bugaboo, it’s that he’s had his issues on the kill. He ranks 24th among goalies on the kill that have played 25 games, and the Jets have one of the worst kills in the league. He’s behind his expected save-percentage down a man, but again, the Jets give up amongst the most chances on the kill in the league. He’s not getting a lot of help.

    Hellebuyck holds more than just the Jets playoff chances in his hands. If he can’t boost them into the postseason, there would have to be major changes in The Peg. This is a team built to compete, not barely scratch in or out of the playoffs. There’s not a lot of cap room, and their coach probably needed to be fired a year ago. The defense could be overhauled, as only Morrissey and Pionk are signed for next year. One wonders if Laine would be moved along with only one year on his contract and not exactly proving himself to be the world class sniper he once flashed and before he demands to be paid like one. Would Chevyldayoff survive a playoff-less season?

    The Jets have put an awful lot on Hellebuyck. He’s been up to the challenge so far with no support. But how much more can they ask?

  • Game #50 – Jets vs. Hawks: Hedley Lamarr’s Muggers, Buggerers, And Bushwhackers

    Game #50 – Jets vs. Hawks: Hedley Lamarr’s Muggers, Buggerers, And Bushwhackers

    Paul Maurice – The only thing keeping him in a job right now is Connor Hellebuyck. This is a woeful defensive team, has been for over a year, and clearly despises whatever it is Maurice is telling them. They could find themselves tied with the Hawks after tonight, which is a good indication that you suck. Consistently presides over one of the dumbest teams in the league, though the Jets don’t seem to care enough to get close enough to take penalties right now. They’ll just wait around for Hellebuyck to make the save and then get open to score. A true lesson in falling upwards.

    Andrew Copp and Kyle Connor – Because they convinced us once that Tyler Motte could be a thing at U. of Michigan. Guess which of the three wasn’t actually an NHL player? Guess which one was a Hawk?

    Winnipeg Airport – Because it doesn’t exist.

  • Game #50 – Jets vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Game #50 – Jets vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

  • Game #50 – Jets vs. Hawks: Lineup & How They Were Built

    Game #50 – Jets vs. Hawks: Lineup & How They Were Built

    Jets

    Notes: The Jets couldn’t really afford some injuries on defense, it wasn’t good to begin with. But they’ve got that, which is why Niku is up and Kulikov is on the top pairing. There’s gold in them thar hills…Connor is on a bit of a heater, with six points in his last five and he absolutely murders the Hawks with five goals in 11 career games…Hellebuyck got torched by the Bolts, but everyone is these days, but in his four starts before that he’d given up six goals, including against Nashville and Toronto…

    Hawks

    Notes: If there’s any changes it’ll be to get Brandon Hagel into the lineup, probably ahead of Nylander but maybe Highmore…A big reason the Hawks have leveled out is they’ve sorted out the bottom of the roster, especially the third pairing. Slater Koekkoek has been a huge improvement over Dennis Gilbert, so the Hawks are no longer getting buried for a quarter to a third of the game…Caggiula also has a hand in that, who is what they thought Andrew Shaw would be…

  • Game #49: Hawks 6, Leafs 2 – Don’t Tease Me If You’re Not Gonna Please Me

    Game #49: Hawks 6, Leafs 2 – Don’t Tease Me If You’re Not Gonna Please Me

    Box Score

    Natural Stat Trick

    These kinds of wins from the Hawks are always simultaneously thrilling and frustrating. Obviously, skullfucking any opponent that is so much better than the Hawks on paper like the Leafs appear to be feels incredible, but then you check some of the metrics on the game and they seem to tell something of a different story. On top of that, it makes you wonder where performances like these are the rest of the season. But I also don’t want to complain about awesome wins like this. Let’s do it:

    THE BULLETS

    – His surge of late has been so sudden and seemingly out of nowhere, that I am still consistently in shock about Dominik Kubalik coming on so strong recently. Before the season I felt like he would be a solid middle-six contributor, but recently he really seems to be hitting a stride and showing that he might be a bit more than that. His second goal tonight, batting the puck of thin air and into the net, was some incredible shit and personally I would like to see if he can play right field on the South Side with contact skills like that. Hopefully this isn’t just a scoring surge that will peter out and really is the result of a strong coming-out campaign.

    – On top of that, Jonathan Toews is continuing his Fuck You Tour from last year, adding another four points tonight that give him 43 total in 49 games this year. His first goal was literally just him telling the entire Leafs roster to eat his dust, going full on Fuck It mode and undressing Freddy Andersen, and his second was him doing that *again* for good measure. Don’t let any dumb motherfuckers tell you that he is not good at hockey, and if people do tell you that, call them a dumb motherfucker.

    – Patrick Kane added himself a point to get within one of 1000 on his career, but overall he had something of a rough night. It felt to me like he was pressing really hard to get that 1000th point once he got 999, but through that pressing he was making a lot of bad plays in the offensive zone. I hope he gets that point ASAP – preferably though a goal – so we don’t have to deal with that kinda stuff much more going forward.

    – William Nylander was far and away the best player for the Leafs tonight while Alex was basically unnoticeable, which is further reminder that the Blackhawks trading Henri Jokiharju for the wrong Nylander.

    – Andersen had such a bad night, and the Leafs have had such a strange up-and-down goaltending season, that Geek Boy Dubas should not let Robin Lehner leave town if he knows what is good for his roster. Just give the Hawks your first round pick and move on with the season.

    – Hawks go again tomorrow, hosting the Jets. Until then.