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Game Time: 9:00PM CST
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, SN affiliates, WGN-AM 720
Indecent Proposal: Sin Bin, Knights on Ice
Because getting territorially dominated by a Randy Carlyle coached team without two of its best ice flipping defenseman wasn’t insulting enough, the Hawks now have no time to even sit in the corner and feel shame for it with a tilt tonight in Vegas against a Knights team that completely clowned them on national TV and in their own building two weeks ago.
There’s a school of thought that hockey players, especially forwards, peak at the age 0f 27. Some punch through that, such as Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, perhaps Patrick Kane, Joe Pavelski, and this could go on. But for the most part, it’s true. Max Pacioretty was thought to be a player who wouldn’t fall victim to that. Maybe we all should have been paying more attention.
Since he came into the league full-time in 2011, Patches is 9th in the league in goals. He trails Ovechkin, Stamkos, Tavares, Pavelski, Seguin, Benn, Malkin, and Kane. Those are obviously some names. When one of the top-10 scorers in the league goes on the market, teams pay attention.
More impressively, Pacioretty got there playing without any prime centers in Montreal. Some names that Patches had to run with are David Desharnais, an aging Thomas Plekanec, Alex Galchenyuk, Phillip Danault, and Andrew Shaw (boy that guy really needs to write a book on how to fall upwards). And yet Pacioretty produced.
But dig a little deeper, and the warning signs are there. This is the fourth-straight season that Pacioretty’s attempts per game have dropped. Same story with his shots-on-goal per game. And it’s the same with his individual expected goals per 60 minutes of even-strength time.
Patches has been able to overcome that so far this season by rocking a much higher shooting-percentage than he has in a few years, of 11.3 at evens, which is his highest since 2013-2014, and overall 15.2% which would be a career-high. But he’s doing that with worse shots. That’s not a sustainable model. Then again, Cody Eakin isn’t exactly a huge improvement over the mishmash of whatits he had in Montreal.
Which really makes one worry about the four next years when he’ll be making $7 million. That takes him to 34 years old, or seven years past his prime. It could get icky.
As we said with the contract that Marc-Andre Fleury got when the Knights were in Chicago, just because GM George McPhee had all the cap space in the world to throw around didn’t mean he had to. Patches still qualifies as one of the best scorers in the game, but that has a shelf-life. Perhaps Tavares was never going to listen to him, though he presents the same problem as Pacioretty in that he plays a slower game. Doesn’t seem to be affecting him in Toronto, though. What about Erik Karlsson? Or waiting for Panarin?
McPhee had such a cushion that he’ll get out of it. Only the raise to William Karlsson is on the horizon, and everyone else is pretty much set. The Knights will have $11 million in space in the summer as of now, minus whatever raise Wild Bill gets. Two years from now Cody Eakin and Ryan Reaves are off the books. But there might not be too many more contracts for him to hand out before it’s trouble.
None of this means that Pacioretty is going to be a detriment. He’ll probably get a team 20-25 goals for another few years simply because he can be a bad-shot maker. Hell, get him a prime center some day and it might juice him a little. He’s just not going to be, or likely isn’t, what the Knights had hoped they had traded for.
Game #30 Preview Suite
Ken Boehlke is one-half of sinbin.vegas. This was the Q&A we did with them when the Knights were in town just a couple weeks ago. Follow them @SinBinVegas.
We know the Knights benefitted last year from insane goaltending along with their more than solid even-strength play. But having among the worst save-percentage and shooting-percentage this season seems a violent market correction. Is there something systemic here more than just rotten luck?
What it really comes down to is Grade-A scoring chances and the subsequent execution of them. Early in the season the Golden Knights were having a hard time creating anything in the dangerous areas (in the house, if you know that term) but what was worse than their inability to create the chances was a consistency in not finishing those chances when they did arise. Luckily, as tends to be the case in hockey, that has turned recently, especially since they’ve begun to play more
Pacific division teams.
How big is the injury to Paul Stastny?
To be completely honest, it hasn’t had a major impact to this point. It’s the loss of Haula that seems to be more of a detriment to the team. Stastny certainly would have been, and hopefully will eventually be, a nice center for the 2nd line, but Eakin has stepped in incredibly well and appears to be thriving with goal-scorers on his line again. The loss of Haula however has definitely taken an level of speed away from the team and at times they don’t look like the quick, ferocious, probably considered annoying team that won the Western Conference. They’ve been searching for anyone to make the 3rd line go since Haula’s gruesome injury, but it hasn’t really happened yet. Would they be better with Stastny back? Of course, but if you gave me one or the other right now, I’d rather have Haula.
And the suspension to Nate Schmidt? While he’s unquestionably a good player is he really a top pairing d-man that a team would miss so heavily?
I’ll be completely honest in saying I heavily underestimated the impact Schmidt would have in the lineup upon his return. When a guy is out for the first 20 games of the season and the last memories of him are the Cup Final when not a single defenseman was any good, there certainly has to be a level of skepticism about how good the player really is, especially a player who has only a one year track record of being a top pair defenseman. But this guy is everything and more on the ice that made the hockey world realize that he’a a top 20 defenseman in the league and maybe even better. He’s kind of been this a stabilizing force to the defense in that they aren’t allowing an odd-man rush a period anymore, but it’s added an element of transition back into Vegas’ game and most importantly, it’s meant the return of Colin Miller and Shea Theodore to more familiar, less defensively responsible, roles. All of that was a long way to say, YES, Nate Schmidt is that good.
Max Pacioretty started slow, there was concern, and now he’s bagged six goals in four games. Was this just a product of all scorers going through hot and cold streaks?
I don’t think it was simply a cold streak that a scorer tends to go through. We’ve all seen those cold streaks and they tend to mean lots of great saves against, post hits, miraculous backchecking, and the likes. That’s not what this was for Pacioretty. He was just not good. He wasn’t creating much by means of scoring chances and he was uncharacteristically a liability defensively. When I say he was bad, I mean, he was legitimately one of the worst forwards on the team. However, he’s definitely not that anymore, and it’s not because he’s scored a bunch of goals recently. It seems to have much more to do with
his linemates. Playing with Alex Tuch isn’t as simple as it would seem. He’s so much faster than he looks and he plays with a power that’s not horribly common in the NHL. Pacioretty seemed to always been a half second behind Tuch, likely because he didn’t expect Alex to be able to pull off some of the stuff that he does. Now, Pacioretty expects Tuch to win every puck, to undress guys at the blue line, and to fire passes through people every shift. Pacioretty is starting to find himself in much better positions when Tuch and Eakin create turnovers, and the three of them are starting to look dangerous every single time out as a unit rather than individually. Pacioretty told me about two weeks ago that he thought he was thinking too much and it was slowing him down. That’s a huge problem when you play with Tuch. That appears to be over
and the flood gates might just be open.
Game #30 Preview Suite
Sure, at times it can be a little bombastic. The more you see it, the sillier it can seem. Here’s the thing about all the shenanigans and pageantry of the pregame routine at T-Mobile Arena…
…it’s fucking Las Vegas!
The whole town just screams tits and money 24 hours a day. You can get a $2 buffet. They put a roller coaster in the fucking Eiffel Tower. There’s a light you can see from space on top of a goddamn pyramid made of glass. Need we go on? Caesar’s Palace is roughly the size of Utah. The whole thing is bombast.
In a day when every arena looks the same, when every pregame thing is the same montage with different colors–fuck, the UC has been playing Foo Fighters at the beginning of the 2nd period and “Ridin’ The Storm Out” before the 3rd for 10 motherfucking years–we should all rejoice that someone out there is trying to make for a unique experience. Something tailored to the city they play in. Something to make the fans feel there’s something special and different about the place they live and the team they support.
Part of being a hockey fan is hating everything. We know. We hate everything to. But hey, we miss the Hawks skating through a frozen Chicago and fending off ninja hockey players or whatever they were. Not just the same on-ice projection and lasers that everyone else has. Put like a giant Italian beef or an Old Style on there or something! Make the United Center a different experience in some small way than TD BankNorth Garden or BB&T or wherever else.
And stop bitching about Vegas. If you didn’t like ridiculousness, over-the-top theatrics, and sheer lunacy you wouldn’t go there once every couple of years to try and find your youth again. It’s supposed to be stupid. It’s a playground in the middle fo the goddamn desert for Christ’s sake. Or did you forget about the floor show in the middle of the slot machines? Or the dancers among the blackjack tables?
If anything, the T-Mobile pregame brewhaha doesn’t go far enough. Use actual showgirls or flying tigers or giant ships or whatever. We could use more of it.
Game #30 Preview Suite
Notes: Last night was truly sobering. DeBrincat and Jokiharju barely got 10 minutes of even-strength time. Why? What are you holding onto here? Forsling played with Keith just as much as anyone, and we know how that goes. This is the last game you’ll have to watch Manning regularly though, so that’s nice. Maybe. Also, Corey Crawford basically sucks right now. And the season hinged on him. Which isn’t fair to him considering what he’s been through, but that’s the reality.
Notes: Marchessault hasn’t scored in his last eight…Wild Bill has scored in four of his last five…Eakin has six points in his last four games, including three against the Hawks last time even though that line has struggled with him at center…The real strength of late has been their bottom-six, which no one seems to be able to match. Especially the Hawks.
Game #30 Preview Suite
Call the Blackhawks what you want, but you have to admit they’re consistent. They once again found themselves down early, spasmed an effort in the second (which ironically saw them post a 35+ CF% against the second-worst possession team in the league), and got buried in the third. Swiss watches don’t keep better time than this script at this point. Watching the Hawks now has all the feel of finding a mole in your taint and deciding “Yes, I’m going to pick this out with my fingernails.” It’s gross and awful, and we’re not sure how we really got to this point, but we’re an inch and a half deep, so there’s no turning back. Let’s try to clean up the blood.
– We’ll start with some good, because there’s so little to be found. Erik Gustafsson’s goal was the beautiful result of vintage Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith. If you only just started watching Blackhawks hockey and saw that play, you’d wonder how this team’s record is such piss. Kane’s preternatural ice awareness let him swing a no-look pass through the slot to a wide-open Keith, and Keith’s shot fake led to a month-long ban on all jock strap sales to John Gibson at sporting goods stores nationwide.
– Gustafsson’s goal and later post are what make him such a nightmare to watch. You can see that there’s offensive potential, but you have to dig through an awfully deep pile of shit to get there. If the Hawks ever decide to admit that this isn’t a playoff team (which they should have done after firing Q), don’t be surprised to see Gus on the move. He can certainly find a spot on someone’s (read: Toronto’s) third pairing and bum slay. As much as I hate to admit it, he—like many of the Hawks’s peripheral players—is a toy.
– Don’t look now, but Brandon Manning has spasmed a Jordan Oesterle over the last few games. If you ignore the fact that he had a 27+ CF% (and you should, because I sure as shit am), you can probably argue that he was at least fine last night. Or at least in the first period. He created the mad scramble in front of the ice that led to Brandon Saad’s crossbar, then managed to follow up with a shot off Pontus Aberg after Aberg cleared the paint. He then drew a roughing penalty late in the first. These are the straws we are grasping at here, but if Manning can look at least competent for a stretch, some throbbing sack of toxic masculinity will trade a pick for him.
– Alex DeBrincat’s goal was a clinic in puck handling. After Jonathan Toews settled a turnover down, he delivered a pass almost directly into DeBrincat’s chest. DeBrincat not only settled that down but also flicked a shot past Gibson to tie the game. As is the refrain: Thank God he’s 5’7”.
– I have two fun facts for you. First, here’s a sampling of forwards who played more 5v5 time than DeBrincat last night: John Hayden, Dominik Kahun, Dylan Strome, David Kampf, Brendan Perlini, and Artem Anisimov. Second, and this fact is really fun, NONE OF THOSE FORWARDS SHOULD BE PLAYING MORE 5V5 TIME THAN ALEX DEBRINCAT. You can talk to me about how DeBrincat played four minutes on the PP and I will tell you to run headfirst up my asshole. There is simply no excuse for this no matter how you slice it.
If you are a massive brain genious who thinks that this team is still playoff hopeful, then you have to have your best pure shooter on the ice as much as possible, especially since the Hawks have scored exactly two goals per game over the last three games. If you think that it’s time to Lose for Hughes, then you want to see what your young crop can do, and wouldn’t you fucking know it, Alex DeBrincat still isn’t old enough to legally buy a drink.
I don’t know whether this is a Colliton decision (when approached by, I think it was Lazarus, about the fact that DeBrincat played only 46 seconds at 5v5 in the first, Colliton said “that’s not right,” as in he was refuting a fact) or Barry Smith and the front office telling Colliton what they want, but neither gives me the warm and fuzzies. And when you add the rumbling about bringing Artemi Panarin back to this weirdness, it gets even more frustrating, because DeBrincat does more than Panarin does, is younger, and doesn’t cost $10 million.
If you want to make a case for Top Cat playing with Strome, fine. But make those two, plus whichever unpainted sad clown you want to shove with them, your second line and be done with it. Alex DeBrincat is not and has never been a third fucking liner, and when even Coach Mr. Turner is treating him as such, you have to wonder if this is a decision being made by the HOCKEY MEN in the front office.
– And what the fuck is this new “drop pass behind center ice off the boards” horseshit? It happened two or three times last night, which indicates that this is no accident. I don’t know whether this is Colliton drawing it up or THE CORE just doing shit they’re comfortable with, but it’s got to stop. I never thought I’d yearn to see a drop pass at the opponent’s blue line, but here we fucking are.
– Be happy Duncan Keith had that incredible shot fake, because outside of that, he got horsed all night. On the ice for six high-danger chances for the Ducks at 5v5. Several turnovers in his own zone leading to sustained pressure. An interference penalty in the second because he couldn’t keep up. He will go down as the best Hawks D-man in history, but with each passing day it gets harder and harder to remember that.
– We all said that if Corey Crawford came back and was Corey Crawford, we might have a fringe playoff team. Last night was another instance of forcing ourselves to ask “What if this is what we’re getting now?” Crow probably should have had both the second and third goals Anaheim scored. On the second, Seabrook forced Daniel Sprong to almost below the goal line, and Sprong still managed to shelf it over Crow’s glove-side shoulder. In the third, Ondrej Kase did much of the same, albeit with a slightly better angle. This isn’t to put the blame for the loss on Crawford—given how many incredible saves he made on the night—but if you’re waiting for a Crawford miracle, it might be too late for you.
– Even if you count the four posts as shots on goal, the Hawks still got outshot by the Ducks. Even for the Hawks in their current state, that’s simply unacceptable.
Jeremy Colliton is in a really tough spot, with young guys who mostly suck and a Core that either can’t or won’t do the things it’s expected to do. You and I both know what this team is, and all we can hope is that Coach Mr. Turner starts focusing on getting Strome and DeBrincat more time on the ice. Because what else is there, other than another late game tonight?
Just cut my head off and kick it into the lake.
Booze du Jour: Four Roses and High Life
Line of the Night: After the inane Hayden fight, the national broadcast made a comment about how “He probably didn’t have to do that at Yale,” then proceeded to namedrop Yale a few more times. It was a great moment in Mute Lounge History.
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RECORDS: Hawks 9-14-5 Ducks 14-10-5
PUCK DROP: 9:30
TV: NBCSN
HERE WE GO AGAIN IT’S NEVER GONNA END: Anaheim Calling
God, writing that record out just hurts.
The Hawks quickly jaunt out west this week for a back-to-back against Anaheim and Vegas, and I’m sure landing in Vegas really late curtails any urge to enjoy the splendors and luxuries of Sin City–what I’m saying is that the Hawks will look like particular shit tomorrow night. But we’re not there yet. Let’s deal with a slog with the Ducks first.
Starting with the local Westside Hockey Club. There wouldn’t appear to many changes. Having failed to launch Chris Kunitz headfirst into a landfill at great speed, our best hope is that his “veteran leadership” that cost the Hawks any chance of a point on Sunday lands him in the pressbox for the foreseeable future. Erik Gustafsson should draw back in after a one-game ball-tap, which should send Jan Rutta back into the darkness of the Honda Center on his way to Rockford. Connor Murphy is on the trip but is not likely to play either game, but Sunday against Les Habitants would seem to be likely.
As for the rest of it, there isn’t much left to say. The forwards will get jumbled. Patrick Kane will play everywhere. We hope to notice Brendan Perlini at all. We hope that Dylan Strome builds on what was a decent game on Sunday. But if there’s ever a time to claim some new ground, it’s tonight.
Because don’t be fooled by the Ducks record or placing in a Pacific Division that has all the momentum of a pig in shit. This team BUH-LOWS. They’re on pace to give up a record number of shots per game. They give up the second-most attempts per game, and have the fourth-worst xGA/60 (care to guess who has the first?). They basically get shelled every night, and only heroic work by both John Gibson and Ryan Miller have kept this team from loitering around the entrance to the drugstore with the Hawks, Blues, and Kings.
Gibby, I can call him that, has cooled off a touch since his unholy October, but still came up with a .921 in November and had put up a 34- and 44-save effort in his two starts before getting clocked by the Capitals. Perhaps because of that, and blatant lack of respect for what the Hawks are, they’ll get to see Ryan Miller tonight, who’s only been at .954 at evens this year. So that’s nice.
Up front, the Ducks have a clear delineation from their top-six to the bottom-six. The top line of Pontus Aberg– Ryan Getzlaf–Rickard Rakell has been a weapon of late, with Aberg benefitting the most. I’m not telling you Getzlaf found his long-lost fuck to give, but he’s more than talented enough to set up plays while floating around the outside and reading…well I don’t think he can read but whatever dumbass fucks like him read. The second line is being carried by Adam Henrique, and both of these units start exclusively in the offensive zone. The next lines start exclusively in their own end, and because Ryan Kesler has maggots crawling out of every orifice now, they can’t escape.
The defense had been missing Hampus! Hampus! for a while, and will be without Cam Fowler for longer still. And while they want to believe that Brandon Montour and Josh Manson are that good to justify giving up on Shea Theodore as he excels in Vegas, they’ve been having their brains turned into potato soup most of the year. Maybe a fully-healthy Fowler and Lindholm help that, but this is a Randy Carlyle team and Randy Carlyle teams are terrible metrically while he finds reasons to justify his “Helmets Cause Concussions Because They Make Brains Hot” theory (this is a real thing).
Look, we all know the Hawks are going to get stuffed tomorrow night because they have in every meeting with the Knights. So if they actually still care, and I’m not convinced they do, and want to get a win just to see if they can still feel anymore, this would be the time. The Ducks are bad. The Hawks already deservedly beat them once this season.
Just get a win. Because it might be a nice change of pace.
Game #29 Preview Suite
We’re not writing this through cramp-causing giggling. Honestly, we’re not (we so are).
Ryan Kesler has been, or had been, perhaps the main Hawks foil for years. Starting in 2009, when Andrew Ladd broke his jaw, and continuing for another six seasons, no one drew the ire of Hawks players and fans more than Kesler. He was Lex Luthor. He was The Joker. He was the boogeyman. His clashes with Jonathan Toews verged on Shakespearian. And he did it with two teams, taking his King Asshat Act down the coast from Vancouver to Anaheim.
He kicked off fights, brawls, sparring in the media. frothing in the crowd. Kesler harkened back to an age in the sport where there were true heels that made you think if there wasn’t glass separating the crowd from the players, he very well may have been attacked by a baying throng all carrying Old Styles.
And Kesler couldn’t have produced that kind of emotion if he couldn’t play. There was a time when he was a dominant player. He scored over 70 points twice, if you forgot. He potted over 20 goals in nine of ten seasons, and the one he didn’t he was hurt. There was no better checking center, and it was Kesler who really did the heavy lifting for both Henrik Sedin and Ryan Getzlaf as they decided to be wallflowers in the destructive dance of the playoffs.
But it was clear that Kesler’s style couldn’t last. It was far too physical, far too in the muck, and when his body started breaking down, it wouldn’t stop. And so it has proven.
That didn’t stop Bob Murray in his infinite wisdom from handing Kesler a six-year extension that didn’t kick in until last year when he was already 33. And now you wonder if it isn’t the absolute worst value there is.
Kesler’s cap-hit is $6.8M, which is the 48th-highest in the league (tied with Brent Seabrook for a chilling bit of symmetry). Kesler put up .31 points per game last year, and is at .23 this year. Looking at the names above him on the cap-hit list, the only names that jump out that you could argue are Seabrook, Dion Phaneuf, and Bobby Ryan. But Ryan is younger, and at least averaged 0.5 points per game last year, though both he and Kesler missed big chunks of time with injury. Neither is anywhere near a guarantee to suit up for most of the games on the slate now.
Phaneuf is trash, but his deal was signed five years ago. It was a bad deal then, mind, but that’s the neighborhood Kesler lives in (along with Seabrook). Somehow, Kesler only makes a shade less than Patrice Bergeron, whom Kesler’s agent assuredly used as a comparison and Murray somehow bought it.
There wouldn’t seem to be any way out of it. Kesler isn’t going to retire and leave $20M on the table. He has a full no-trade until the last year of the deal, but there aren’t going to be any suitors who come sprinting when the Ducks hang a “Must Go” sign on him. His actual salary remains rigid throughout, so there’s no out for the Ducks that way.
His injury history might give the Ducks an out, where they can LTIR him into the abyss if his physical condition doesn’t allow him to play in the next three years. But Kesler would have to agree to that, and he doesn’t seem like the type.
The Ducks have some problems on the horizon, as Jakob Silfverberg goes UFA after this season and Brandon Montour RFA the summer after that. They should just about be able to keep everyone, but that’s keeping everyone on a team on pace to give up a record number of shots and chances against this season and only being bailed out by their goalie. Where’s the addition?
If you need something to cling to in this winter of discontent for the Hawks, know that Kesler lost all the fights. He didn’t get a Cup. His words always ended up on a plate for his dinner. Save 2011, the Hawks always got the better of his team. He became an anchor to his team for now and the future. And it won’t get any better. That should do it.
Game #29 Preview Suite
Usually, we try and give our Q&A correspondents a few days for these things. But because we try and block out Anaheim’s existence out of our minds, both team and place, we forgot to send these to our dear friend Jen Neale. Because she’s an angle, she helped us out anyway on short-notice, because she apparently loves a charity case. Follow her on Twitter @MsJenNeale.
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Is the Ducks bewildering placing near the top of the Pacific solely because of John Gibson keeping Randy Carlyle in a job? Do you still hate Gibson?
The Pacific Division is an absolute dumpster fire this season. That’s the only reason the Ducks look somewhat ok. I will admit the Gibson is helping their cause but he’s not the sole reason. The Ducks came back to beat Washington in their last game after Gibson was pulled in the first. They’ve been straight up lucky lately. And I don’t hate Gibson. I just strongly disagree with the Ducks keeping him over Freddie Andersen. I also don’t think Carlyle will lose his job while Bob Murray is still GM. He doesn’t want to fire his BFF twice. I’ve been actively campaigning for the Ducks to hire Q but he’s priced himself out of the Samuelis budget.
How does a team with Hampus! Hampus!, Fowler, Montour, and Manson giving up this many shots and chances?
Silly Blackhawk, Hampus recently returned from injury and Fowler has been out for a while with a fractured orbital bone that required surgery. The high shots against totals is becoming rote for the Ducks. It’s a signature of a Carlyle defense. I’ve given up looking at shot totals because I know I’ll be disappointed. How does Pontus Aberg have nine goals?
Because he has the best name on the team … and he’s playing on a line with Rickard Rakell and Ryan Getzlaf. This is Murray’s one wire pickup (or trade) a season that works out and keeps him employed. This isn’t going to last, right?
Everything is going as it usually does. They start off like
Bold Prediction: First round playoff exit.
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Game #29 Preview Suite
