Faxes from Uncle Dale

Category: Baseball

  • Those With Glass Ceilings Should Not Throw Baseballs Too Much Or They Will Inevitably Get Hurt: Ranking The White Sox Top Prospects

    Those With Glass Ceilings Should Not Throw Baseballs Too Much Or They Will Inevitably Get Hurt: Ranking The White Sox Top Prospects

    Now that we have arrived at the MLB All-Star Break, it’s about as good a time as ever to review the list of the White Sox’ top prospects, because outside of the obvious candidates at the major league level, it’s not like there is too much more to get excited about with this team. So AJ and I took a stab at ranking our own personal top-15 prospects, drawing our line at 15 because getting there is hard enough and trying to get beyond it is splitting hairs, especially given all the long-term injuries in the Sox’ system.

    Our lists matched up in some places but varied a lot in others, so we will divide this up into tiers and just have our individual rankings and justifications attached, along with MLB Pipeline’s ranking for the players for a bit more context. Please remember that neither of us are scouts but also might be the smartest Sox Writers you know. Also the Pipeline rankings are gonna change a lot soon but we are doing this now. Thanks.

    The Cream of the Crop

    Luis Robert, OF

    Ranks: Adam – 1; AJ – 1; Pipleine – 1 (5 in MLB)

    Adam: I have thought for a while that Robert, along with Yoan Moncada, has the highest ceiling in the entire system, even higher than Eloy’s. Robert basically grades with 60’s across the board and probably has 70 grade speed. He’s gonna be a great hitter and an excellent defensive center fielder that might find his way into MVP conversations in the future if it all goes according to plan.

    AJ: This one pretty much sets itself as Robert continues to own every level he’s sent to now that he’s healthy. The only things holding him back from making the September callups is his health and Service Time Manipulations.

    The Elite Arms

    Michael Kopech, RHP

    Ranks: Adam – 2; AJ – 3; Pipeline – 2 (16 in MLB)

    Adam: Kopech is probably close to as good as any pitching prospect in baseball on pure talent, and the only real questions about him are how he will bounce back from Tommy John surgery and, to a lesser extent, how much his control issues will hold him back. If he gets back on his trajectory from before the surgery, this is a future ace.

    AJ: Elbow or now, we’ve seen what he can do. The only question is which category he falls in: Successful Tommy John or Not.

    Dylan Cease, RHP

    Ranks: Adam – 3; AJ – 2; Pipeline – 3 (18 in MLB)

    Adam: Everything I said about Kopech might just apply to Cease, minus the TJ and with a bit more concern about the control. If his change flashes as good moving forward as it did last week, the control will matter less.

    AJ: We saw Wednesday what that nasty curveball can do when it’s thrown at the bottom of the zone. Once he starts locating his fastball, his off speed stuff will make him something else.

    The Future Big Leaguers Who Could Be More

    Nick Madrigal, 2B

    Ranks: Adam – 5; AJ – 4; Pipeline – 4 (39 in MLB)

    Adam: I liked the Madrigal pick in 2018, but in some ways it lacked imagination. There’s little doubt about his bat and glove, and he’s practically a lock to be a big league regular, but if he can’t hit for power there are legitimate questions about this ceiling. If he does hit for power, he could be a star.

    AJ: The kid can flat out hit (though not for much power), and his eye for pitches is Joey Votto-esque. Seems like he plays plus defense at 2B, which pretty much sets the Sox infield in stone for the foreseeable future. I’d expect him to compete for a job next year.

    Andrew Vaughn, 1B

    Ranks: Adam – 4; AJ – 7; Pipeline – N/A

    Adam: Pipeline hasn’t ranked him on the Sox top 30 yet because they haven’t added the 2019 draftees to the league and team rankings. But Vaughn can mash, and might be something of an Eloy clone in the bigs. If he can play plus defense, this guy is another potential star. At the very least he should be a good or very good player.

    AJ: I wasn’t super excited about Vaughn being picked up in the first round by the Sox, but by any measure he was the best player available at the time and that’s my strategy for every draft ever. Vaughn can hit for power, has a good feel for the zone and plays average D at 1B. He profiles out to a Konerko type player, and I’m OK with that. Worst case scenario is he’s moved in a Reverse Quintana for controllable pitching assets later (Hello Marcus Stroman!)

    Dane Dunning, RHP

    Ranks: Adam – 7; AJ – 6; Pipeline – 5

    Adam: Doesn’t have the lively stuff of Cease and Kopech, but every pitch is solid or plus and his plus command should make him a lock as a starter in the bigs, with the only real question being how high his ceiling is. Shares the TJ recovery concerns, though.

    AJ: Another elbow casualty. Dunning was mowing people down in 2018 before the elbow strain, and was looking like he’d be in Charlotte by the end of the year with a possible September call up. Now we’ll have to wait till Spring Training next year to see if he’s still got it. The tools are all there, however.

    Zack Collins, C/1B/DH

    Ranks: Adam – 8; AJ – 5; Pipeline – 11

    Adam: I have a lot of concerns about Collins, mostly about his defense and K-Rate, which are pretty big concerns for me. But the elite plate approach feel for the strike zone, along with his power, will keep him an MLB lineup for years, I think.

    AJ: Another player with an excellent eye for the strike zone. Pity Renteria would rather play Palka than give him time in the field. There’s still questions as to where he plays in the field, but we will never know until he gets consistent playing time.

    Steele Walker, OF

    Ranks: Adam – 6; AJ – 9; Pipeline – 10

    Adam: Walker strikes me as an MLB regular all day. He can almost definitely play center field but hopefully won’t have to, and a a move to left will benefit him well. He has a plus hit tool with average power and has performed well against Low-A and High-A pitching this year. He’s the non-top-tier guy I’m most excited about, as my ranking makes obvious.

    AJ: Walker has been destroying the ball lately, and plays a solid corner OF spot. Walker should be in AA by the end of the year, and start the season in AAA if he keeps hitting at this pace.

    Other Guys That Made Both Lists

    Micker Adolfo, OF

    Ranks: Adam – 11; AJ – 8; Pipeline – 7

    Adam: If Adolfo could’ve stayed healthy these past few years, he could’ve been a top prospect in baseball and in the bigs already. He has huge pop and a cannon of an arm to match, which will play in right field if his fielding stays solid. He just needs to stay healthy and his ceiling could be sky high, but with the health issues there are too many questions here raised by so much missed time.

    AJ: Man I like this guy, but his elbow is made of paper mache and elmer’s glue. We haven’t really seen him at full strength, but I feel like when we do it’ll be Robert-like.

    Luis Gonzalez

    Ranks: Adam – 9; AJ – 12;  Pipeline – 9

    Adam: While he’s struggled a ton in AA this year, that’s a hard league to hit in, especially with Regents Park in Birmingham as your home field. He’s only a year removed from murdering both levels of A-ball, though, so there is still reason for optimism here. I imagine he will make his MLB debut for a team other than the White Sox, though.

    AJ: Another Sox prospect having difficulty putting the ball in play down in Birmingham. I like what little Ive seen of him so far, especially the 4 triples this year. I feel like this time next year he will be hovering around #5.

    Luis Alexander Basabe, OF

    Ranks: Adam – 10; AJ – 11; Pipeline – 6

    Adam: Another guy with a high ceiling being dragged down by injuries. Similar to Adolfo, if he’d stayed healthy he might be in the bigs. Instead he’s been hurt, and then struggled at AA this year. Still could project as a solid RF in the future though, especially with a solid profile at the plate as a switch-hitter.

    AJ: Is constantly hurt, and hit so shitty to start he got demoted to A ball from Birmingham. All the shiny tools are there to be a solid CF for the Sox but he needs to hit. The trip to Kannapolis woke him up, but he promptly got hurt again.

    Konnor Pilkington, LHP

    Ranks: Adam – 12; AJ – 14; Pipeline – 19

    Adam: Similar profile to Dunning but the stuff is not as good. The control is not a concern, meaning if the stuff can play up he is back-end starter. At worst, he’s a fine bullpen buy or decent trade chip.

    AJ: Every time I see his name I think of one half of The Ascension tag team in WWE. He’s moved pretty quickly through the lower levels, but probably tops out at “5th Starter, 7th inning” kinda guy.

    Blake Rutherford, OF

    Ranks: Adam – 13; AJ – 10; Pipeline – 8

    Adam: I have a feeling that Pipeline ranking is going to keep with the trend and plummet again at the next update. He’s come on a bit more recently, but the power that some projected in the past hasn’t been there, and he can’t play center field. An outfielder who can’t play center and can’t hit for power is something of a bad outfielder. Another guy I think debuts for another MLB club.

    AJ: Rutherford has rebounded from a disatrous start to the season and gotten himself to a respectable .262/.298/.371. That being said, the Sox have seemingly hundreds of OF who can OBPS their way to a sub .700 so the power is going to need to show up soon.

    Made One List But Not The Other

    Gavin Sheets, 1B

    Ranks: Adam – 14; AJ – N/A; Pipeline – 17

    Adam: I did not like this draft pick at all, and for a few years it just kept looking awful. He’s a 1B-only guy who hadn’t mashed when the one thing 1B-only guys need to do is mash. The bat is finally catching up, though, and he actually has finally been mashing the past few months. He’s another guy I think gets traded, specially now that he’s blocked by Vaughn. Getting him to AAA with the golf balls soon to boost his trade value could be wise.

    AJ: Another 1B only Sox prospect, Sheets has decent pop but hadn’t shown it until this season.  Solid D at first, but hasn’t done anything to dissuade the Sox from taking Vaughn this year.

    Alec Hansen, RHP

    Ranks: Adam – 15; AJ – N/A; Pipeline – 14

    Adam: Hansen went from potential top pick, to plummeting down the draft boards, to pitching like a top prospect, to getting hurt and then struggling (something of a theme, no?). I still have some hopes he can be effective in the bigs, maybe as a bullpen guy at the very least. And maybe some other team still likes the ceiling enough to take him in return for a piece the Sox will eventually need.

    AJ: I didn’t choose Hansen for my top 15 as his control seemed to dive off a cliff.  If he can gain some semblance of it back, the stuff he possesses would max him out as a high leverage reliever in the Josh Hader vein.

    Zack Burdi, RHP

    Ranks: Adam – N/A; AJ – 13; Pipeline – 15

    Adam: He was a first rounder because the Sox thought he’d be quick to the majors as a reliever, but then he got hurt and wasn’t quick to the majors. I can’t keep him in my top 15 due to injuries, but he could still be a future closer.

    AJ: Plus fastball with control issues and Tommy John surgery. It’s like they’re all following a script. The initial reports of Burdi’s velocity demise may be unfounded, but his control issues persist.

    Jake Burger, 3B/1B

    Ranks: Adam – N/A; AJ – 15; Pipeline – 12

    Adam: Too many injuries. At this point I just think of him as the guy the Sox got after missing on Jo Adell by ONE PICK!!! AJ says it better than I could, anyway.

    AJ: Missing and presumed dead.

    Guys Not On Our Lists That You Should Watch For

    Danny Mendick is an intriguing guy to me. He’s something of a non-prospect and doesn’t show up on many lists, but all he’s done since being a 22nd round pick in 2015 is hit at every level he’s been to and consistently rise through the system. He also can play all over the infield. If the Sox non-tender Yolmer this winter, which I can see happening, Mendick is an intriguing potential replacement.

    Bryce Bush is a 3B/OF who made noise after being picked in the 33rd round last year and then dominating rookie ball. He has struggled in Low-A this year and also battled injuries, but has had flashes of brilliance as well and is still just 19 playing at a full season affiliate, so there is hope yet. RHP’s Matthew Thompson and Andrew Dalquist were taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds this year and have high ceilings, though they won’t pitch for affiliates this year. James Beard is an OF they grabbed the 4th round this year who can flat out fly and has a progressing bat, and has drawn Andrew McCutchen comparisons because his swing is similar and he has the hair to match. Bush is currently on Pipeline’s top 30 list for the Sox, and the other three should all be on the list once they update it in the coming weeks.

    Getting real deep (and way off any top prospect lists), in the Arizona Rookie League, SS Jose Rodriguez has a .283/.306/.633 slash line, OF DJ Gladney has a .324/.366/.620 line, and 3B Bryan Ramos has a .375/.463/.625 of his own. Gladney is a former Sox ACE guy drafted out of Illiana Christian in the 16th round this year, while Rodriguez and Ramos are both former international signings. They’re all far away from the bigs but all could potentially be on this list in the future.

    Our Lists, TL;DR’d

    [table id=3 /]

  • Series Wrap – Cubs And Sox Split: Everybody Go Away

    Series Wrap – Cubs And Sox Split: Everybody Go Away

    Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 6, Sox 3

    Game 2 Box Score: White Sox 3, Cubs 1

    I could use this to ram home the constant narratives about the Cubs, though that would seem excessive after they had scored 17 runs in the previous two games. This afternoon’s loss was frustrating, and had a mini bus-is-running feel to it, but the themes are constant for them.

    For the Sox, it was basically the series at Wrigley over again, with Giolito rediscovering his control problems to get paddled around, but this time Ivan Nova’s blanking of the Cubs came after and still with an Eloy home run. Nothing we didn’t know, really.

    Let’s do the bullets and get out of here.

    The Two Obs

    -Hendricks was missing his spots by a large margin today, which cost him against Jimenez. He wanted to go inside, he didn’t get it there, and you saw the result. It was probably to be expected, as he had only thrown three innings since his injury, which makes his next start over a week away feel a little antsy too.

    -On the flip side, Lester was effective enough, though one thing Maddon might want to change is still considering Lester his ace and not the 3-5th starter he really is now. 99 pitches after six innings, he should have been pulled last night. Maddon sends him back out there, two runners on, and they score. Lester isn’t giving you complete games anymore, and if you get six innings out of him with one run that’s the max you can hope for.

    -Giolito just couldn’t locate on Saturday night, and for once the Cubs were happy to not try and overdo things. He’s hit something of an oil patch of late, failing to get a quality start in three of his last four. It’s not always going to be easy, of course, and that’s what the rest of this season is about.

    -I’m sure the homers against the Cubs by Eloy are extra enjoyable for the black-clad, but the OBP under .300 needs to be noted.

    -Most frustrating for the Cubs today was Anthony Rizzo. During one of the two innings the Cubs led off with a double, Rizzo struck out on a pitch that nearly hit him in the dick. After Bryant walked on four pitches in the 8th, Rizzo swung at the first pitch that was on his knuckles. That’s just a shit approach.

    This isn’t to  pin everything on Rizzo, but the team is built on the idea he’ll be great, which he usually is. Since July 1st, he’s been below average. He won’t stay there, but it’s a problem now. I would be utterly shocked if Rizzo was just going through the motions and is one of any players who have chucked it on Maddon. So the Occam’s Razor is that he’s pressing, which those ABs would certainly prove. But he’s the bellwether on this team. If he takes the patient ABs in big spots the Cubs are crying out for, they keep saying it’ll be contagious. I have no problem with him or Contreras opting to try and do more than just move a runner over. They’re paid to drive in runs, after all. But there has to be a better approach to do that.

    -And that’s the biggest disconnect for the Cubs right now, and probably why Theo has been so vocal and threatening of late. We keep hearing Maddon say the Cubs have gotten away from their successful approach and they need to get back to patience, opposite field, that sort of thing with runners on. Fine, but you’re the manager, so you’re supposed to be the one saying it. Either Maddon isn’t, or they’re not listening, and that’s the disconnect. And what has to change, but I tend to put this on the players more than Joe.

    -Despite the homer to Robel, Bummer might have the best stuff out of the Sox pen and might fetch more than a lottery ticket by the end of the month. They can come from nowhere.

    Note: I’m gonna take the All-star break as well. So it might be a bit sparse around here for the next couple days. The minions will handle any Hawks news or whatever else tickles their fancy, and I’ll be back on Friday. Just feel like I could use it. Hope you don’t mind, and we’ll talk soon. 

  • Series Preview – Cubs vs. White Sox: Senioritis

    Series Preview – Cubs vs. White Sox: Senioritis

    vs.

    RECORDS: Cubs 46-42   White Sox 41-43

    GAMETIMES: 6:15 Saturday, 1:10 Sunday

    TV: Fox Saturday, WGN and NBCSN Sunday

    HEY WAIT, ALL THE BASEBALL WRITING YOU NEED IS RIGHT HERE!

    PITCHING MATCHUPS

    Jon Lester  vs. Lucas Giolito

    Kyle Hendricks vs. Ivan Nova

    PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

    Kyle Schwarber – LF

    Kris Bryant – 3B

    Anthony Rizzo – 1B

    Javier Baez – SS

    Jason Heyward – RF

    Willson Contreras – C

    Robel Garcia – DH

    Albert Almora – CF

    Addison Russell – 2B

    PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

    Leury Garcia – SS

    Yoan Moncada – 3B

    Jose Abreu – 1B

    James McCann – C

    Eloy Jimenez – LF

    Jon Jay – RF

    Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

    Ryan Cordell – CF

    Zack Collins – DH

     

    After what can only be described as an obscene scheduling choice to have both teams off on a Friday, the Cubs and Sox will head into the All-Star Break by finishing up their interleague duel, this time on the Southside. Needless to say both teams couldn’t be feeling much different before they get away from each other for four days.

    The Cubs are something of a mess, even with their Independence Day thumping of the Pirates. Everyone seems just about miserable, they may have decided to chuck it on their manager who might be trying to his last throes to keep his job. Everyone is being threatened by the front office. And yet despite all that they’re in first place, and are really only a Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo binge from opening up some space in the Central.

    The Sox on the other hand, though still under .500, have something of a bounce in their step after series wins over the Twins and Tigers, and the call-up of Dylan Cease, and the team starting to resemble what it very well might look like when the games matter more than this in a year or two. You can feel it starting to bubble at The Rate/Cell/Comiskey. Taking two from the Cubs and confirm or heighten their death spiral will certainly feel like the dawn of something on 35th.

    They’ll send out their best in Giolito, whom strangely the Cubs paddled at Wrigley last month, and then Ivan Nova, who throttled the Cubs strangely before that. Nova has had decent career numbers against the Cubs going back to his Pirates days. At least for the Cubs, they’ll send out their best which is Hendricks, and can hope Lester can muscle through another start. And of course even if that happens, any appearance by Craig Kimbrel is going to raise the pulses on all sides after his entrance and then last Wednesday’s hiccup. Maybe Aaron Bummer can impress the Cubs’ brass enough this weekend too to avoid paying Alex Colome prices.

    Going into Sunday, Hendricks has had particular problems with Abreu and Yolmer, bothin hitting over .400 against him. And Abreu just happens to be having his best season.

    So all set then. Figures to be one of the livelier occasions between these two in a while, added to by Eloy’s heroics last time we did all this. There actually feels something at stake on this one, more than bullshit bragging rights between two teams in different leagues. The Cubs have a season to save, the Sox have steps to take. All laid out before us.

     

  • Series Wrap – Cubs Lose Three Of Four To Pirates: One Man’s Fighting, We’re Just Not Sure Whom

    Series Wrap – Cubs Lose Three Of Four To Pirates: One Man’s Fighting, We’re Just Not Sure Whom

    Game 1 Box Score: Pirates 18, Cubs 5

    Game 2 Box Score: Pirates 5, Cubs 1

    Game 3 Box Score: Pirates 6, Cubs 5

    Game 4 Box Score: Cubs 11, Pirates 3

    It always seems to be in Pittsburgh around the All-Star break. It was in ’16 where the Cubs took a month off basically and got swept there and sent everyone into a highly comedic and highly unnecessary panic. It was there last year where the Cubs managed a solo home run in four straight games to prove their offense had issues. And hopefully, the first three games of this series will be remembered as something of a nadir where the Cubs faced the abyss and decided to finally step in the other direction. Maybe they can even do that without some major roster shakeup. But it feels like they might have crossed that threshold already.

    Let’s do it:

    The Two Obs

    -Most of what can be concluded from this series can be found here. But there’s two points to go over, so here’s the first. Maddon’s blowup yesterday at the Pirates dugout seemed more performative than these usually do, but you can understand it. Maddon has watched this team go to the zoo on him for most of this season, especially of late. They may be quitting on him, but he has to show he hasn’t quit on them, like Pinella-style. So he’s going to show he’s still backing them. Hopefully they take the cue, because as I said in that piece, this doesn’t feel like it’s on Maddon again. And if it is, then Theo probably should go ahead and pull the trigger now. We’ll see how they respond over the weekend.

    -Obviously, Wednesday’s loss is going to be replayed a lot, and was the worst of the season. I suppose there’s a ton to be written about Addison Russell’s stubbornness and inability to see the wrongs, but frankly I’m too tired to do it now. He fucked up. Kimbrel fucked up by walking Diaz. Contreras fucked up by not catching the ball, but with Heyward and Bryant hurt there wasn’t much choice. All of that happens. Still, there is something to wonder about:

    With Kimbrel’s velocity down a touch, though at a more than passable 95 MPH, he’s going to have to use the top of the zone more if he wants to keep missing bats. None of this happens without guys able to make contact off him, and there are times when you need a whiff. He didn’t get them, and anything can happen when the ball is in play, especially against a team that seems intent on blowing its toes off.

    -That’s two straight quality starts from Quintana. There were less change-ups, but he kicked up the amount of fastballs instead of sinkers.

    -We’re going to deal with Robel Mania, aren’t we? He’s going to strike out a ton and that might gobble up whatever usefulness his bat has, but for now let’s bask in a great debut.

    -Kris Bryant has a big game, the Cubs score 11 times. This isn’t hard.

    -Mike Montgomery is dead. Tuesday’s game was in reach, until he got involved.

    -So those calls for David Bote are going to have to be quieter after seven straight strikeouts, huh?

  • Series Recap – Sox Take 2 of 3 From Tigers: STONE COLD! STONE COLD!

    Series Recap – Sox Take 2 of 3 From Tigers: STONE COLD! STONE COLD!

    BOX SCORES:

    Game 1: Rain Out

    Game 2: White Sox 7 – Tigers 5

    Game 3: White Sox 9 – Tigers 6 (12 Innings)

    Game 4: White Sox 5 – Tigers 11

     

    Wow.  Lots to talk about here, from Dylan Cease’s first ever MLB start and win, to Jose Abreu and Yoan Moncada refusing to let the Sox lose in game 2 of the doubleheader, to Reynaldo Lopez’ continued struggles in game 3 today.  There’s a lot to be excited about, and the double comeback win in game 2 is the kind of rally that fans of the team will remember for a long time.  It was FifthFeather in fact who tweeted that the game forcibly reminded him of the Christmas Blackhawks game in 2007 against the Oilers which was the birth of the Hawks tremendous run throughout the 2010s.  Let’s hope this is in that vein, as the core group of guys seems to have a little something special going on.  The quest for .500 continues, and the Sox edge ever closer.  To the bullets!

     

    NUMBERS DON’T LIE

     

    -I used the title above in reference to my favorite WWF moment ever, when Mick Foley won his first World Title on Monday Night Raw, January of 1999.  Foley (then in his Mankind persona) was facing off against The Rock (then the Corporate Champion of Vince McMahon) in a no DQ match.  Just when it looks like Foley is going to lose, the glass shattering beginning of Stone Cold Steve Austin’s music hits and the place goes apeshit.  Austin tees off on the Rock’s head with a chair and rolls Foley over for the 1-2-3.  It’s the loudest I’ve ever heard a crowd before, and Moncada and Abreu’s home runs in extra innings reminded me of this moment.  You could almost hear the glass break as Abreu somehow turned a low and away changeup from Nick Ramierez and pulled it into the Sox bullpen.  Just like on Raw, the Comiskey crowd goes ballistic and it gives me chills.  It’s probably the most exciting moment this team has had since Thome’s bomb in the blackout game against the Twins.  In a way, those 2 home runs may end up serving as bookends for the rebuild.  Let’s hope.

    -Yoan Moncada also homered from both sides of the plate that night, the one from the left side being the most impressive (not just because it tied the game), as he absolutely murdered a cutter off Tigers closer Shane Green and put it 462 feet away from home plate.  I know the ball is juiced, but goddam that was a sight to behold.

    -Lest we forget, Dylan Cease had his first ever major league start AND win.  He worked 5 innings, 4 of which were more than acceptable.  He came in the first, clearly bothered by nerves walking 2 and plunking one.  This resulted in the only two runs he gave up until he hung a curveball to Jeimer Candelario in the 5th.  He didn’t let that faze him, however, as he then mowed down Harold Castro with a nasty curveball after that.  He was still overthrowing his fastball, but I feel now with the first start out of the way that should abate.  His curveball is plus stuff, and his change has some sick movement on it.  I’m eager to see what he can do from here on out.

    -It wasn’t all roses and dingers however.  Reynaldo Lopez had another shit outing, giving up 6 and only going 5.1 innings.  His off speed stuff just wasn’t where it needed to be, so the Tigers just zeroed in on his fastball and crushed it.  The bullpen didn’t fare any better, as noted arsonist Juan Minaya came in and promptly gave up 2 more runs.  Renteria didn’t have a whole lot of options however, what with the double header and extra innings games the previous day.

    -Daniel Palka should never start in front of Zack Collins again.  If someone plays shitty defense at 1st base and bats below the Mendoza line, I’d rather have it be a prospect then the journeyman.  Seriously, Palka is hitting .022 right now.  What about him says “play him over our first round draft pick?”

    -Yolmer Sanchez was heating up at the plate, so naturally someone stepped on his hand today and he had to leave the game.  Hopefully he doesn’t miss much time.

    -Next up is the Cubbies and another chance to blow past .500 so I’m sure it’ll be a split.  Onwards!

  • Can You Blame Joe Maddon Twice?

    Can You Blame Joe Maddon Twice?

    On the ground, there are perfectly legitimate, nothing-you-can-do-about-it reasons for this latest Cubs swoon. A starter gets hurt before the second inning. A rookie pitcher has something of a blow-up. A rain delay forces your starter out. All of these things tend to mean you’re going to lose that game, especially when it exposed your obvious weakness, the bottom half of your pen. When they’re bunched together like they have been the past five days, it probably makes it seem worse than it is.

    But we’ve been doing this for six weeks or more now, and if it were just that you could be a little more optimistic. Still, the Cubs are playing loose games. Last night Jason Heyward, generally one of the Cubs more alert and astute players, gets picked off first. We’ve lamented the errors, the base-running mistakes (which the Cubs do lead the league in), the silly decisions, the bad ABs. All of it speaks to a team just not locked in, and generally that’s on the manager.

    If the Cubs don’t close the week out hard, the whispers of Joe Maddon losing his job might turn into full conversation. He’s only got half of a year left on his contract, the Cubs appear intent on finding any reason to let him ride off into the sunset, and his players seem to be playing like they’d be in favor of speeding up the process.

    Except the Cubs have already done this, in a way. Check out the tweet pinned to the top of The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma’s feed. They were talking about this in March. They were talking about this in November. More batting practice. Less shenanigans. We want this hitting coach gone. They listened to the players, this all came from them. They said they wanted this.

    And this is how they’re playing.

    So one has to wonder if Maddon is the problem at all. It’s impossible to imagine this group of players has the problem. Can you really see Anthony Rizzo not being tuned in and up? Or Kris Bryant? Javier Baez? Contreras? You feel like you can spot prominent players who are contributing to a broken clubhouse (they’re usually Mets), but it feels impossible that it could be any of these guys. I suppose Jon Lester contributed to one clubhouse gas cloud in Boston, but he’s considered a team leader now too. Of course, fool me once and all that…

    So the Cubs have changed their pitching coach. They’ve changed their hitting coach. They’ve changed their routines. And now they’re having the season everyone thought they had last year but didn’t really. Whatever “urgency” or “edge” the Cubs were looking for isn’t there, though it’s hard to look like that when you start every game off down five.

    I don’t know how deep the rot goes. I could argue that it’s all surface. The pitching hasn’t been good, the bottom half of the pen can’t keep the Cubs in games, Hamels and Hendricks either are or were hurt, and there are dark spots in the lineup. Bigger than anyone is mentioning is that Bryant isn’t hitting for power and knocking in runs in bunches, which is what happens when the Cubs are good. Bryant slugged .719 in May, and drove in 22. Those numbers are .489 and six in June. That’s not all on him, you have to have people to drive in of course, but it’s a major problem. Compounding that is Rizzo slugged .394 in June. Those two don’t just have to be good. They have to be great, and they haven’t been.

    All of that explains it away, doesn’t it?

    On the deepest level, perhaps the offseason malaise from ownership to the front office carried down to the clubhouse. That’s an impossible argument to prove, but you can see it, can’t you? The players didn’t feel supported, didn’t feel urgency from their bosses, and it’s spread like wildfire.

    The only thing I can definitely get on Maddon for right now is going to a six-man rotation when Hendricks was already hurt. Why voluntarily wade into all of your depth when you don’t have to? You were calling up Alzolay anyway. Perhaps that game Hamels got hurt Chatwood could have taken over. There’s no guarantee there of course, but we can basically say what Montgomery is now. Maybe you get one or two of those. Things would feel better with just two more wins than losses.

    But overall, Maddon was asked/forced to change his ways. He did, and the players are still providing underwhelming results. Can that really be on him? Who could do better? You going to turn things over to Mark Loretta?

    Something is amiss in there. It would have seemed unfathomable just two seasons ago it could be the players. But we’re here now, and I can’t find any other answers. That’s the harder change, of course. And if you fuck it up it’s irreparably broken.

    Then again, maybe it already is?

    Anyway, have a good holiday. We’ll be back on Friday. 

  • Series Preview – Tigers vs. White Sox: From The Top To The Bottom Now We’re Here

    Series Preview – Tigers vs. White Sox: From The Top To The Bottom Now We’re Here

    vs.

    RECORDS: Tigers 27-52   White Sox 39-42

    GAMETIMES: Tuesday 7:10, Wednesday 1:10/7:10, Thursday 1:10

    TV: WGN Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, NBCSN Wednesday night and Thursday

    HAVEN’T RELOCATED TO NASHVILLE YET: Bless You Boys

    PITCHING MATCHUPS

    Matthew Boyd vs. Reynaldo Lopez

    Daniel Norris vs. Dylan Cease

    TBD vs. Ross Detwiler

    TBD vs. Ivan Nova

    PROBABLE TIGERS LINEUP

    JaCoby Jones – CF

    Nicholas Castellanos – RF

    Miguel Cabrera – DH

    Christin Stewart – LF

    Jeimer Candelario – 3B

    Brandon Dixon – 1B

    Nick Goodrum – SS

    Gordon Beckham – 2B

    Bobby Wilson – C

    PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

    Leury Garcia – SS

    Yoan Moncada – 3B

    Jose Abreu – 1B

    James McCann – C

    Jon Jay – RF

    Eloy Jimenez – LF

    Jose Rondon – DH

    Yolmer Sanches – 2B

    Ryan Cordell – CF

     

    After dealing with teams at or near the top of their divisions or in the playoff chase for the past three weeks (yes, even the Cubs), the Sox get a three-day, four-game break against the Tigers, who along with the Royals are basically cleaning the septic tanks of the AL Central. For the Tigers now it’s about who is going to go between now and the trade deadline, which could be just about anyone. Too bad they picked a year when the Royals and Orioles are doing it better than they are.

    Let’s start with the White Sox, who will unveil Dylan Cease on Wednesday afternoon. You couldn’t find a softer landing for a debut than the first game of a double-header against the Tigers, which is probably why the Sox picked it. Cease is up for good, or so the Sox say, even though his numbers in Charlotte aren’t that impressive. But at this point, the Sox are just running out of guys, so why not? The reports were that Cease was still powering his way out of trouble instead of pitching, which won’t fly against most other teams in the majors, but he can learn that just as easily at this level as he can at AAA. Cease’s Ks were down and walks up this year from his previous seasons, so the fear is that will rip and explode at the top level. We know the stuff is there, it’s about learning the approach now.

    Not only are the Tigers purposely stinky, they’re beat up too. Michael Fullmer is a long-term casualty, and Josh Harrison and Daniel Norris are either out or iffy as well. Offensively, this is really about Castellanos and no one else. He’s the only one having an above-average season, as Cabrera heads for the retirement home.

    On the rotation side, one of the bright spots in Spencer Turnbull has also landed on the injured list with shoulder fatigue. Other than him, there’s Matthew Boyd and then a pile of goo. Boyd has one of the best K/BB ratios in baseball, striking out over 11 hitters per nine and walking less than two.

    The pen? It’s Shane Greene and his 22 saves and then an even bigger pile of goo.

    Four against the Tigers and then closing out the first “half” against the Cubs who can’t get unfucked for money. Could that elusive burst past .500 be waiting finally?

  • Tigers Spotlight: The Drawn Out End Of Miggy

    Tigers Spotlight: The Drawn Out End Of Miggy

    When teams are trying to come up with any other reason for draining the free agent market other than collusion or straight-up greed, we suppose they could use Miguel Cabrera’s contract as a cudgel. No one wants to locked into paying a hitter in his late 30s $25M or $30M while they slowly turn purple in the sun. Although it’s working out ok for Joey Votto. Not so much the case for Miggy.

    Cabrera will go down as one of the best right-handed hitters of his era, and if it wasn’t for Mike Trout and whatever planet exiled him here, you wouldn’t find anyone better. Since joining the Tigers in 2008, only Trout and Votto have surpassed Miggy in WAR and offensive runs. He was the heartbeat of a string of great Tigers teams that won four AL Centrals in a row (before the Dodgers made that kind of thing de rigueur). Miggy wasn’t ever able to bring home a World Series and fulfill the dream of Mike Illitch (the one other than robbing the poor citizens of Detroit blind), but that wasn’t really on him.

    What made Miggy so entertaining in dangerous is he did it all at the plate. He walked, he didn’t strike out, and he was just as likely to cut your heart out with a simple opposite-field single to score two than some bomb into the concourse. There was nowhere to go to get him out consistently, and he was more than happy to continually take whatever was on offer.

    So while Miggy’s contract is ugly now, one wonders what the Tigers were supposed to do. Surely sentimentality still has a place in sports somewhere, and Cabrera is the greatest Tiger since…well, ever? Ok, not Ty Cobb. And maybe Trammel and Whitaker have claim to the previous era. Kaline and all that. Still, it won’t be long after he retires that Miggy’s number is going up on the wall at Comerica. At the time of signing, Miggy was the most feared hitter in the game or thereabouts, so maybe his decline was also off in the distance. It was 2013, remember. Could they really have just let him walk away? The cold-hearted calculations say they should have, but that doesn’t work all the time in the real world. It was also hard to see in 2013, when Cabrera signed the extension that didn’t kick in for another three seasons. It was overexuberant for sure, and perhaps a lesson every team might have taken too much to heart.

    That said, the Tigers are still on the hook for $30M for four seasons each after this one, and this one is ugly. And that’s after Miggy missed all but 36 games last year, and it’s clear the effects are lingering. Miggy is struggling through knee problems this year after the groin injury last year, and now he can’t play in the field for the rest of the season. Not that Miggy ever really could, but the Tigers will have to bend their lineups around him once again. Good thing for the Tigers it doesn’t really matter.

    As it does with most older players in an ever-speeding world, Cabrera can’t deal with velocity as well. Cheating for it has left him swinging at pitches out of the zone far more than he ever has in his career, and that’s led to some pretty horrific numbers on curveballs. Miggy still hits the ball hard (40% hard-contact rate), and he was above 40% well before just about everyone was. Miggy is walking less than ever, striking out more than ever, and hitting for less power than ever.

    The Tigers are in just at the start of a rebuild, so he’s not costing them wins they might need. And maybe he sells a few tickets to fans who know it’s going to be a couple years at least before games in downtown Detroit matter again. But if it’s two years, what do you do then? With his physical condition, it’s highly unlikely that Cabrera can reclaim his former glory again.

    Perhaps an injury settlement. Perhaps an unspoken agreement if Miggy retires that he’ll still get the money. The money’s gone, the only hope is there isn’t some standoff between player and team if he wants to keep playing but the Tigers want to move on. No one’s going to take that contract, no matter how much of it the Tigers are willing to eat. And that’s if Miggy ever hits again, which hie might not.

    Perhaps if they got that World Series, it would be less unpleasant. Maybe it won’t be unpleasant at all, given what Cabrera meant to the Tigers. Before Miggy, the Tigers hadn’t won a division since 1987 (though they did go to a World Series as a wildcard, the only year in that stretch they’d won over 90 games).

    No one ever gets the ending they want.

  • Series Preview – Cubs vs. Pirates: Ok But This Time We Mean It

    Series Preview – Cubs vs. Pirates: Ok But This Time We Mean It

    vs.

    RECORDS: Cubs 45-39   Pirates 39-43

    GAMETIMES: Monday-Wednesday 6:05, Thursday 3:05

    TV: NBCSN Monday-Wednesday, WGN Thursday

    STUDIED UNDER GRADY TRIPP: Bucs Dugout

    PITCHING MATCHUPS

    Adbert Alzolay vs. Trevor Williams

    Kyle Hendricks vs. Joe Musgrove

    Yu Darvish vs. Chris Archer

    Jose Quintana vs. Jordan Lyles

    PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

    Kyle Schwarber – LF

    Kris Bryant – 3B

    Anthony Rizzo – 1B

    Javier Baez – SS

    Jason Heyward – RF

    Albert Almora – CF

    Victor Caratini – C

    Addison Russell – 2B

    PROBABLE PIRATES LINEUP

    Kevin Newman – SS

    Bryan Reynolds – RF

    Starling Marte – CF

    Josh Bell – 1B

    Colin Moran – 3B

    Corey Dickerson – LF

    Elias Diaz – C

    Adam Frazier – 2B

     

    Ok, this time the Cubs are going to get their road record straightened out and close out strong against an inferior opponent. We really mean it this time. For sure it’s going to happen here. Yep, definitely. Totally.

    Sigh.

    It sounds good, but much like the Reds the Pirates might not be exactly what they seem. They were 11-15 in June, worse than the .500 record than they had in April and May, but they actually had a positive run-difference in the month which they definitely did not in April and May. That’s baseball for you.

    Overall, this is a pretty middling Pirates lineup. Josh Bell has been an unholy monster of course, and he killed the Cubs when he was struggling. But other than him, the only regulars to be above average at the plate are Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman, both newcomers on he scene. If you can believe it, Gregory Polanco is hurt again and so is Francisco Cervelli, so those grounders just past short that always seem to drive in two runs from him won’t be a feature this holiday week. Marte has made a lot of contact as usual but it doesn’t really result in much. Cory Dickerson returned from the IL in June and has actually hit, so he’s been a boost and has made left field his.

    Guess what? The rotation isn’t that impressive either! That’s Pirates baseball, baby! They’ve missed Jameson Taillon, who looks unlikely to pitch again this year as they’re being awfully careful with the Tommy John survivor. Archer isn’t missing bats as much as giving up more fly balls these days, which in 2019 baseball means you’re getting crushed. Trevor Williams and Joe Musgrove have been ok, with the former barely walking anyone. They’ve had to jumble it in the back with nine different guys making starts in June, with the occasional use of an opener.

    Like most go-nowhere teams, they’ve had trouble bridging to their closer in Felipe Vasquez. Richard Rodriguez is on a heater with a scoreless June. But Francisco Liriano has been awful of late, Kyle Crick has no idea where the ball is going, and the rest of the crew is the normal gunk you find in a bullpen for a non-contending team.

    For the Cubs, Kyle Hendricks will return tomorrow night from shoulder knack that the Cubs are most certainly not rushing him back from in the wake of Cole Hamels‘s injury. Nope, not at all. Ideally, this is the only outing Hendricks will have before the break, and it’ll be a good 10 days before his next one to clear up any lingering problems, if there are any. Alzolay will get another look tonight and if all goes well he could close out the Sox series. Jason Heyward’s latest flare-up at the plate has seen him move up to fifth in the order, which has always gone well in the past of course.

    The Cubs caught a bad break with Hamels going down on Friday and leaving the pen to cover eight innings. But at some point, they either need to get going to we’ll just have to live with this being what they are. I’m not there yet, so enough bullshit. Let’s go.

  • Pirates Spotlight: Not All Archers Are Good For A Laugh

    Pirates Spotlight: Not All Archers Are Good For A Laugh

    There are few, if any, organizations that are a prime example of how you can fuck up a great team and feel no pressure like the Pittsburgh Pirates. It’s been five seasons since they won 98 games and got Arrieta’d, and not a lot has gone right since. The past couple years have been particularly astounding, and sending Pirates fans on their way in droves. But what does it matter when Bob Nutting can still pocket revenue sharing and BAM tech money and make a huge profit?

    The Pirates started last season by moving along team legend Andrew McCutchen because he was a year from free agency, and if that wasn’t bad enough (it was), they also shipped off ace Gerrit Cole because he was two years from the market. We could study how the Bucs mishandled Cole forever, trying to shoehorn him into their cutter-ground ball ways and then watching the Astros unleash a monster by letting him simply be him and chuck 97 MPH all the time.

    The Pirates, in the midst of a surprise above .500 season, tried to make up for that by shipping out perennial disappointment Austin Meadows and seemingly perennially wayward Tyler Glasnow for Chris Archer. Let’s be fair to Archer, he was never as good as Cole and to expect him to be was silly. And it’s not Archer’s fault that Meadows has gone on to be a plus-plus outfielder in Tampa while Glasnow was one of the best starters in the AL before getting hurt. That’s on the Pirates. But Archer is going to be the target.

    The warning signs were there on Archer before, of course. Even in his good days, 2014-2018, Archer was a two-pitch pitcher. He threw only a fastball and slider, though both being weapons were more than enough for then. But the thought was as soon as either slipped, he was going to have problems. And so it has proven.

    Archer’s fastball has lost a full MPH on it this season, though you wouldn’t think averaging 94 MPH instead of 95 would be a major issue. But it has been. He’s seen a 100-point rise in slugging on his fastball, to .562 this year.

    Velocity hasn’t been the problem for Archer’s slider, and he still gets over 40% whiffs on the swings on it which is very good. But it has lost some of its tilt, and has more of a sweeping action these days than it did. Which means it’s been a little easier to get in the air, and Archer has seen that increase too. And these days, if you’re giving up more fly balls, you’re asking for trouble. You’re asking for death.

    Archer’s home runs per nine innings have nearly doubled this season, though it’s hardly his fault that pitchers are using Titleists out there this season. Archer’s fly ball rate is the highest of his career, which normally wouldn’t be a big problem in PNC Park, but his home run per fly ball is miles above anything that’s been seen before.

    Archer has tried to make up for it by introducing a change-up this season. It’s had mixed results. He does get a lot of grounders off it, which is key. He’s getting 28% whiffs-per-swing, which is definitely something to build on. He’s still giving up too much slugging on it (.500), but as this is the first year he’s tried it it’s at least a start.

    Of course, the main concern for Nutting’s Pirates is affordability, and Archer is still that. He’s got a team-option of $9M next year and $11M the following, which is nothing for even a 5th starter. And with Cole hitting the open market after this season, he’ll probably pull in three times that or more. For the Bucs, that’s what matters. Shame, that.