@Section328 are the hardcore in PNC Arena in Raleigh. They took off their facepaint long enough to answer our questions.
Game #68 Preview
@Section328 are the hardcore in PNC Arena in Raleigh. They took off their facepaint long enough to answer our questions.
Game #68 Preview
One of the things the NHL probably wasn’t missing that other sports have is a self-involved, I’m-gonna-do-everything shitbag owner. Well, the Hurricanes have one now, and last night we saw the first moves in what will assuredly torpedo this team for the foreseeable future. And Tom Dundon was a shitheel before he ever step foot in the PNC Arena as well.
You may have missed it, because you probably don’t care about the inner workings of the Canes. And fair play to you. Dundon kicked GM Ron Francis upstairs, and now he’s going to sink his hands into the day-to-day hockey operations, no matter who he hires to replace Francis in the GM chair. You can be sure Bill Peters is going to eat it when the season ends, unless he somehow miracles a playoff appearance and might even have to make some noise when and if they get there.
Francis certainly made his mistakes. He’s invested too heavily in Cam Ward for too many years. He got burned by investing in career backups at the time Eddie Lack and Scott Darling, who simply weren’t up to the challenge of being starters (or in Darling’s case, just not yet). Francis has failed to find the Canes a #1 center. But he also put together this fabulous blue line they have, as well as draft nifty forwards like Skinner, Rask, Aho, Lindholm, and stealing Our Special Boy from the Hawks. He’s not a complete idiot.
And really, when has an owner making himself the GM ever worked? Jones hasn’t won a Super Bowl since he started constructing his own rosters. The one he got without Jimmy Johnson was still one with Johnson’s roster. Mark Cuban, shockingly a close friend of Dundon, didn’t get a title until he stepped back from personnel decisions. It’s hard to think of another. And it’s not like the Canes are so stable they can deal with an owner lighting the entire team on fire.
Beyond that, Dundon got his money by simply ripping off the most vulnerable in our society. He started out financing used cars to those who were likely not up for the loans, and cashing in on their late fees and foreclosures as they feared losing their jobs over losing their cars as they could no longer get to said jobs. All you need to know is right here.
Look, most sports owners get their money or protect it in sadistic ways. Just the nature of the thing. But Dundon seems the extreme in his wealth acquiring, and also thinks he’s a goddamn genius for doing so. And Canes fans are going to pay for it.
Game #68 Preview
Come for the thoughts on whatever the hell is still going on with what’s left of this Hawks season, stay to find out why Rose, Sam, and Slak wanted to name this episode “Sex Gunzo’s” in spite of a very clear and well established naming convention. Audio after the jump, and always free because we love you dearly.
I don’t mean to do this every day, and seeing as how we’re now just a month away from likely player reviews, we’ll go back over this. But I was perusing around the stats pages the other day because my life is an empty desert of the real and I stumbled across something highly interesting.
We here at the lab like Vinnie Hinostroza. He’s quick, seems to be in the right place at all times, and if nothing else is an entertaining watch. We’ve opined that if he were to max out he could be a third-line winger, and grab your checking assignments and not let you down. He could be a Michael Frolik if you need to compare him to someone, as the Hawks are seemingly wont to do. Maybe even slightly more finish, as strange as that sounds given Frolik’s pedigree and billing.
Maybe that was a touch unfair to Vinnie.
As I pointed out on Twitter last night, Vinnie Hinostroza is 19th in the league in attempts per 60 minutes at even strength. The names right behind him? Taylor Hall, Patrick Kane, Kevin Fiala, Josh Anderson, Alex DeBrincat. The names directly ahead of him are: Timo Meier, Jonathan Marchessault, Arturi Lehkonen, Craig Smith, James van Riemsdyk. If you want to finish out the rest of the top 20 from there, it’s Atkinson, Ehlers, Bergeron, MacKinnon, Nash, Arvidsson, Ovechkin, Toffoli, Skinner, Gallagher, Tarasenko, Burns.
Other than a name here or there, those are all top six forwards, except for the unicorn that is Brent Burns. It doesn’t immediately equate that simply firing off a lot of shots makes for a scoring winger, but in reality it kind of does. It means you’re on the right side of the ice more than you’re not, it means you’re finding the space to at least get off a shot, and it means you’re not afraid to fire away. This is perhaps one of the reasons the Hawks thought Ryan Hartman was expendable, because we know going forward three of the top six wingers going forward are Saad, DeBrincat, and Kane. Sikura is certainly going to put his name in the discussion, and maybe they thought Vinnie had a better case than Hartman and thus decided to cash in where they could.
Also, it doesn’t just stop with attempts. Vinnie is ranks just as high when it comes to individual scoring chances per 60 as well. He ranks 20th. The names right behind him are Craig Smith again, Josh Anderson, and Brayden Point. The names ahead of him are Top Cat, Taylor Hall, Arturi Lehkonen, and Patric Hornqvist. Again, all the names in the top 20 are at worst top six forwards (Brandon Saad is 8th, leading more credence to the theory that Saad has been more unlucky this year than unproductive).
We should probably go over the caveats. One, it’s still not much of a sample size. At the moment, Vinnie has only racked up just over a season’s worth of NHL games. So we can’t say this is the norm yet, because all of these numbers are up from last season significantly. You’d like to think that it’s just a continuation of growth as well as getting to play up the lineup a little more this season. And his possession stats are spiking up from his 36 games last season as well. And the “better players” argument can go both ways, as you can say he’s benefitting from that but also that not every player watches his game and numbers balloon simply because he’s installed on the top six.
Still, looking at the names he’s around in these categories, you don’t see a lot of one-year wonders there. Almost every name you see there has been a consistent top six scorer for a few years, or are promising kids projected to be that anyway like Lehkonen or DeBrincat or Point.
While I don’t want to compare them fully, when I think of speedy forwards who shoot a lot it’s hard not to think of Patrick Sharp in his younger days. And you forget what a defensive dynamo Sharp was both at wing and center back when he first arrived in Chicago. Vinnie’s 13.6 attempts per 60 this year is right in line with Sharp’s 14.0 in 07-08, which was his breakout season. And Vinnie is dusting him when it comes to scoring chances per 60 from that season. What Vinnie doesn’t have is the shooting percentage (8.1 to 12.5 for Sharp then) or the power play goals.
Maybe Vinnie won’t ever have that shooting percentage, because we know what a rocket Sharp’s shot was then. Maybe Vinnie won’t get the goal totals because of that. But given the chances and attempts he’s generating now, thinking he can be a 20-goal guy on your second line or third line doesn’t seem as far-fetched as it did.
This game adequately proved why the NHL will always be a Riot Fest porta-potty to the rest of the sports-watching world. On the 20th anniversary of The Big Lebowski, it’s appropriate to say that we’re all nihilists. We believe in nothing. To the bullets of this garbage display from the worst sports league on Earth.
– Let’s get to it. At first, the Saad no goal looked like the right call. He made a kicking motion. It was obvious. But our Fearless Leader made a good point over on Twitter dot com, saying that unless the NHL had conclusive evidence that the puck DIDN’T touch Saad’s stick, the goal ought to have stayed good. And that IS the rule. The call on the ice ought to stand unless there’s conclusive evidence otherwise.
All the original angles didn’t really give any indication. But living in Colorado, I had front row seats for the Colorado feed, which had an overhead angle of the goal. If you watch the video, it’s pretty clear that the puck touches Saad’s stick on its way over. So once again, the NHL can’t zip a pair of fucking sweatpants without getting its dick caught in a zipper that only they would have on a pair of fucking sweatpants.
But the most unbelievable thing about all of this is that THE NHL WAR ROOM DIDN’T HAVE THAT ANGLE. How the FUCK DOES THE WAR ROOM NOT HAVE THAT ANGLE? As a multi-billion dollar league. As a league that says over and over again that it wants to be taken seriously. As a league that waters down each and every team for the sake of faux parity to get casual fans to watch their Burger-King-toilet-after-a-cocaine-and-soft-cheese binge of a product because anyone who’s anyone knows what a burning orphanage the NHL is. How do you not have that angle?
This is a game with playoff implications for the Avalanche. Granted, the call ended up going for them, but isn’t the whole premise of the NHL that “our playoffs are the best”? And you want to overturn calls that shouldn’t be overturned because the people who make the decisions on that call don’t have the one fucking angle they need, an angle that the broadcasters for the Avalanche—who work out of the backroom of one of the 69,000 dispensaries we have on each and every fucking corner of this state—did? On what fucking planet is that acceptable?
The NHL’s integrity on things off the ice has always been a used condom dangling over a chicken-processing-plant’s open-top dumpster after a long, hard summer rain, so it’s fitting that its on-ice product, which when done right is as fulfilling as cunnilingus on top of an ice cream cake, has begun to reflect that. I hope the next strike never ends.
Fuck the NHL. Eat Arby’s.
– OK, now that that’s done, let’s talk about the Blackhawks. Connor Murphy had an exemplary game, and has supplanted Duncan Keith as the Hawks’s #1 D-Man in my view. His only boner was the penalty he took in the second that led to MacKinnon’s goal, and it was a bad penalty. But aside from that, he shut the MacKinnon line down, which is no small feat. He was also the calming presence on the ice, as Keith consistently found himself turning the puck over in his own zone. It’s neat and bittersweet to watch a changing of the guard on one pairing.
– We give Erik Gustafsson an awful lot of shit for sucking at defense, but I see offensive upside when he’s on the ice with Garbage Dick. On his goal, he was trying to make a saucer pass to Kane, who was wide open on the far side for a tip. It happened to go off Nemeth’s skate, but it also looked on target for Kane. Then in the second, he made another quality pass that Kane tipped and Varlamov managed to stick away. If you look at Gustafsson as an offensive defenseman, the extension might make a bit more sense.
– Brandon Saad was an unstoppable force tonight. Despite getting his dick punched on that shitty, inexcusable overturned goal, he was everywhere tonight. He drove the net with power several times, most noticeably in the first and second. He ended the night with a 58+ CF%, and the last time I checked in the second—because I was too goddamn furious to watch the third—he was hovering in the 70s or 80s.
– My Cousin Vinnie does just about everything except score these days. He was on the plus-side of the CF% ledger, and had two particularly good plays. The first was about midway through the first period. He took the puck through the neutral zone, then lost it. Instead of panicking, he skillfully lifted the defender’s stick, took the puck, and continued on like nothing happened.
In the third, he completed a gorgeous Spin-o-Rama to get the puck to a streaking DeBrincat, who caught some bad luck in Varlamov and couldn’t put it away. Still, you have to like what you’re seeing out of a confident Vinnie.
– J-F Berube was outstanding tonight. There’s not much he can do about MacKinnon’s goal, with MacKinnon being a Hart candidate standing alone on Seabrook’s side on the PK and Seabrook being Seabrook. He ended up with 33 saves on 34 shots against a team desperate for points on a playoff drive. He’s only had three games—two great and one statistical stinker—but hell if he’s not making a case to be the backup.
The NHL is a toilet. The officials are horseshit. The war room is an affront. But the Hawks won, and The Big Lebowski is on somewhere, so we’ll call it a win.
Beer du Jour: Tommyknocker Blood Orange, followed by straight pulls from the Jefferson’s bottle.
Line of the Night: “They had no overhead. At both ends . . . or one of the ends . . . so they can’t use it.” –Peter McNab, describing why Saad’s goal got overturned.
Stars vs. Predators – 7pm
Much to my chagrin, the Stars have solidified themselves as a playoff team as the Blues continue to tumble down the ladder. They’re juking and jiving with the Wild for the automatic spot, which is actually a bit backwards because a first round meeting with Vegas seems a hell of a lot more pleasant than dealing with the jet engine like noise in Winnipeg along with their forwards for a seven-game series. Either way, they Stars are one of the best defensive teams in the league, and stopping the Predators on their own patch is surely a true test. The Preds have separated themselves from the Jets and Knights atop the conference, where you figured they’d be all along. Which will make their fist or second round trip-up even more hilarious.
Second Screen Viewing
Hurricanes vs. Wild – 7pm
Two teams scrapping for playoff spots, though the Wild have a five-point cushion from dropping out altogether. What the Wild will provide when they get there is of course not up for much debate, i.e. nothing but a handy victory to a Winnipeg fanbase that hasn’t seen a playoff victory since In Utero came out. Or be the team lucky enough to relieve us of Vegas’s presence and then claim they had a really successful season. The Canes are battling against their own goaltending and lack of true top line scoring to try and rescue the last playoff spot in the East. But you know, Finnish Jesus and all that.
Other Games
Red Wings vs. Bruins – 6pm
Canadiens vs. Devils – 6pm
Jets vs. Rangers – 6pm
Knights vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm
Panthers vs. Lightning – 6:30
Capitals vs. Ducks – 9pm
vs. 
RECORDS: Avalanche 35-24-6 Hawks 28-30-8
PUCK DROP: 7:30
TV: WGN
DISPENSARIES AND BREWERIES: Mile High Hockey
As they will spend the rest of the season pretty much, the Hawks will gaze across to the other bench and see a team they used to barely give a thought now playing for the things they want, i.e. a playoff spot and a future. While the Avs always gave the Hawks fits even when the Hawks were dominant, at least we could laugh those losses off as something to be washed away in the irrelevance of regular seasons. Not so much anymore. as the Avs are right in the thick of a wild card chase, with an MVP candidate in their midst, a couple other kids worth watching, while the Hawks can only try to mind-meld with the sand in the hour glass, forcing it into the bottom chamber faster.
How the Avs have got here is basically saddling up on Nathan MacKinnon and running him until he stops. Mac K has the best point-per-game mark in the league, and if he hadn’t missed seven games he’d be running away with the Hart Trophy discussion. Writers are going to bend themselves in all sorts of directions and binds to keep it from him should the Avs miss out, and Taylor Hall winning it sure would have Brooks-ian levels of comedy to it. But no one has played better than MacKinnon, and he’s caused a Gabriel Three-Yaks-And-A-Dog revival as well as kick-started the career of Mikko Ratanen.
Beyond that though, if you’re getting a hint or whiff of 2014, when the Avs were good because they shot the lights out and got Varlamov’s Vezina year and actually weren’t all that good and were quickly exposed in the playoffs, you’re not entirely wrong. Because it’s not exactly easy to point to what this team does well other than “have Nathan MacKinnon and his career-doubling SH%.” They’re not a good possession team, or a terribly good defensive one, They give up a ton of attempts but are better at limiting the quality of those, as their expected goals-against per game is 11th in the league.
The one thing they do well is kill penalties, third in the league, and you’d think with all that speed that would go hand in hand. So if you don’t give up many power play goals and can just win things at even-strength, you’ll be ok. The Avs have done that, mostly thanks to their top line.
There’s a touch more to them than that. Tyson Jost and Alex Kerfoot on the second line portend to a pretty nice future if they continue to evolve. Nikita Zadarov on the blue line has been effective in his first season as a top-pairing guy. Tyson Barrie has the points but not the possession numbers he’s put up in the past.
And they stop the puck. At even-strength, this team has the fifth-best save percentage as both Varlamov and Jonathan Bernier have been excellent this season. Their overall numbers of .913 and .914 aren’t exactly inspiring, but they’ve combined for a ,925 adjusted at evens for the Avs. You’ll win a lot of games that way.
For the Hawks… I mean I don’t know that it matters anymore but it will be interesting to watch Keith and Murphy have the last change and get thrown out there against MacKinnon every shift so we can see how Murphy deals with that. He’s certainly looked ok in the role in the two games in Southern California. Other than that, I don’t really know what to tell you. More of Eddie O telling us how much they like Matthew Highmore and Pat Foley slowly turning into Caray and Piersall circa ’79? I’m not sure any of you hate this team more than Foley does right now.
Could be an ugly week for the Hawks. Then again they pretty much all have been since January. They face two teams scrapping for wild card spots in Colorado and Carolina, and then a home-and-home with somehow the second best team in the league in the Bruins. So that’s a good time for everyone.
Eat Arby’s.
Game #67 Preview
This is where you get into the whole what does “valuable” mean debate when deciding who should win the Hart Trophy. Is it simply the best player in the league? The one who has the most “value,” if hockey actually had a dependable WAR stat? Or is it the one player who meant the most to his team, the one that would be the worst off if you removed said player from them? This question has never been answered, which is why all of these should just be “Player Of The Year” awards, but that’s not why you called.
Nathan MacKinnon certainly has a claim to the latter.
MacKinnon missed eight games at the beginning of February. The Avs went 4-4-0, with wins coming over the Sabres, Habs, Oilers and Sharks. Only one of those teams doesn’t have a separate lunch period from the rest of the school. With MacKinnon, the Avs are 31-20-6, or a 97-point pace. Without him, though obviously a small sample size, they’re at a 82-point pace.
MacKinnon leads the league in points-per-game, with 77 points in the 57 games he’s played. That’s better than Kucherov, Stamkos, and Malkin. And though MacKinnon has the burgeoning Ratanen on his line, all of those other players have better players on their lines. MacKinnon has simply be an unholy force this season.
Of course, it’s hard to look past a shooting-percentage that has doubled from last season and is over 40% better than his career-rate. But MacKinnon’s underlying numbers are the best of his career as well. For the first time he’s above water when it comes to Corsi-percentage. His expected goal- percentage is also the best of his career, though not when it come relative to his team. Mac has benefitted from the rising water level of the Avs as a whole, as they finally have competent coaching for the first time in years.
MacKinnon is average the most individual attempts of his career at even-strength, which certainly helps. But the chances he’s getting aren’t. What has ballooned is his even-strength shooting percentage, to 15.7% when he’d never cracked more than 8% before.
What would help in the NHL, which we’ll never get, is whether MacKinnon’s shot is now harder or more accurate. Well, it is more accurate but is that luck or something he’s worked on? We’ll never know until we get player-tracking, which we may never get.
Either way, the Avs are sitting pretty right now, as MacKinnon is only due $6.3 million per season for the next five seasons, until he’s 27. Given what Stamkos and Crosby and Malkin and Toews and Kopitar are making, and what Tavares is about to get, a true #1 center at that rate is one of the biggest bargains around. The Avs have tons of cap space, though they’re an internal budget team so it’s not clear how close to the cap they can get. Kerfoot and Ratanen are due raises after next year, but only RFA ones. Zadorov on the blue line will be due one as well, and he’ll get more than the other two. But the Avs will have the space, and to add. That’s why you heard their name mentioned as a possible Erik Karlsson destination.
And we really liked when the Avs were an afterthought.
Game #67 Preview