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Game #69 and #70 – Hawks vs. Bruins Spotlight: The Alleged

By Sam Fels 1743 0

Twice in his career, Rick Nash has been the most sought after trade piece in a given market. This year it was at the deadline. When he was moved from Columbus to Broadway, it was over the summer. The Rangers were left to wonder if they really got all that much in his six years in blue. The Bruins may wonder the same come the spring.

Maybe it’ll be different for Nash on Causeway instead of Broadway, because the Bruins aren’t asking him to be a top line winger. And thank god for that, because that’s now what you get with Nash in the playoffs. And the Bruins got Nash or the playoffs, which seems a bit like getting cherry bombs to fix the clog in your drains. It will work, there’s just probably better utensils to go about it.

There’s really no getting around that Nash was a playoff bust as a Ranger. 73 games, 14 goals. You could say he was unlucky, as the 3.3 shots per game he averaged in the playoffs isn’t much different than the 3.6 he’s averaged over his career. But over five different playoff campaigns and almost a regular season’s worth of games?

Looking deeper into Nash’s playoff performances, his metrics do dip a tad. But that is to be expected given the higher competition. His Corsi went from 51.7 in the regular season to 50.4 in the playoffs. xGF% from 50.1 to 49.8. His individual expected goals per game dips from 0.99 to 0.79. Again, you’re not seeing the amount of bums in the playoffs and teams were almost certainly throwing their best pair out against Nash every shift. But…14 goals in 77 games. There’s no getting around it. At some point, when you’re Rick Nash, you have to put the fucking thing in the fucking thing.

He won’t have the excuse of teammates this year. While his Ranger days never included a true #1 center, no matter how hard they tried to sell us on Derek Stepan or Derrick Brassard or Mika Zibanejad, Nash will take the ice in Boston with either the best two-way center in the game in Bergeron or a center who has led the playoffs in scoring twice in David Krejci. Quite simply, Nash can’t ask for more. If he’s paired with Krejci, as he has been since arriving, he won’t even have to face the hardest pairings and checking lines as they will be sent out against Bergeron and Marchand.

And yet you’ll still probably feel something wonting with Nash. Nash has  only scored 40 goals or more in a season three times in 15 seasons. Given his size, speed, and hands, that almost feels criminal. When he was a Blue Jacket, Hawks fans would see shifts where he was simply unplayable. And then you’d see four or five shifts where you didn’t even know he was out there. If he had Ovechkin’s drive he’d have Ovechkin’s numbers. Nash will get to 500 goals in a few seasons or so, and some will tell you that rubber stamps his Hall of Fame case. It’ll be one of the most underwhelming 500-goal collections in recent memory.

If you don’t believe us, remember what Nash looked like when playing with Jonathan Toews on Team Canada. He single-handedly caused the entire Russian team to piss down their leg in Vancouver. There was a true beast in there. There was Eric Lindros in there. There was a multi-MVP in there. He never bothered to find it.

And should he once again prefer the periphery in the playoffs, there will be no hiding. The Boston media isn’t going to go light on him, and he can tuck his tail (tee hee) and head back to a rebuilding Rangers team to serve out the rest of his career in the anonymity that he seemingly has always sought. This was a guy who could sneeze 30 goals per season. Whatever he finishes with, it’s going to feel like something of a waste.

 

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Game #69 and #70 – Hawks vs. Bruins Q&A: One Of The Extras From The Town

By Sam Fels 1717 0

@DOYMarshall is part of a true collection of rabble at DaysOfYorr.com. But no, he’s not the one who got to make out with Blake Lively. 

Let’s start with Patrice Bergeron. Before he got hurt, he was around a point-per-game, which he hadn’t been since 2007. What’s been the difference? Just the addition of Pastrnak? A loosening of his assignments? Something else?

Not to take anything away from the man himself, but a huge factor in Patrice Bergeron’s offensive resurgence of late has been a fundamental shift in the way this team plays hockey. When you have the world’s best defensive forward, of course you expect him to lock down your side of the ice at all times, particularly when the guys behind him couldn’t stop a heroin addict from stealing all the sugar packets from a Revere Dunkin’ Donuts. Bergeron’s deployment this year, however, is almost unrecognizable. Thanks in no small part to the dependability of the 3rd line of Riley Nash, Danton Heinen, and David Backes, Bergeron, a player with a career offensive zone start percentage of 47.6%, has started nearly 60% of his shifts this season in enemy territory. The decision to ease the defensive burden and recognize that a trio of Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and David Pastrnak should turn the inside of most defensemen’s underwear brown has paid off handsomely. Somehow, on the cusp of turning 33, not only is Bergeron shooting more, he’s also posting a career-best shooting percentage of 13.6. Most first-line forwards start to see their production drop off a cliff around age 28, but a revamped role has more than delayed that death spiral for the Bruins’ future captain.
Is Charlie McAvoy really so good that he’s been able to exhume the corpse of Zdeno Chara?
The list of defensemen that have failed to lighten Zdeno Chara’s load since his Norris Trophy season nearly a decade ago reads longer than a Tolkien novel. Each year as a Matt Hunwick or Joe Morrow or Ohmygodwhyisadammcquaidstillonthisteam faltered the preseason promise of cutting down Big Z’s minutes would fall by the wayside. With the notable exception of one massive fuck-up on the part of management, the problem has been with talent. That problem is gone with the addition of Charlie McAvoy. In his first season, he’s already in the upper echelon of puck possession (currently 5th in Corsi% among defensemen >1000 minutes played). He’s also tops in the league for goals for percentage at 5v5. He’s still early in his development and doesn’t see the kind of penalty kill time you want from a #1 defenseman but he has the potential to be for the Bruins what Duncan Keith has been for you guys.
There are other kids on this team like Jake DeBrusk and Danton Heinen. What should we watch for with them?
As a Bruins’ fan, it’s been amazing this year seeing a coach that understands that young players learn from *gasp* playing hockey instead of watching the likes of Gregory Campbell from the press box. Jake Debrusk and Danton Heinen have given the Bruins some depth scoring that they haven’t seen in a few years. They, along with Pastrnak, McAvoy and guys like Anders Bjork and Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson make up a young, homegrown core similar to the wave we saw ten years ago. As well-positioned as the Bruins are for a run right now, they have finally started planning for the future under Don Sweeney. That kind of foresight was sorely lacking under the Chiarelli-Julien regime.
We’ve had this debate for years in the lab. Is Brad Marchand really that good or is he a product of playing every single shift of his career (until recently) with Bergeron?
Brad Marchand is currently the best player on this team. Full stop. It’s undeniable that playing beside Patrice Bergeron molded him in his early career, but he has emerged out of that shadow over the last 3 seasons. He will lead the Bruins in scoring for the second straight season while continuing to be arguably the second best defensive forward in the league. Yes, he is garbage and we accept this. However, for the first time since the lockout-shortened season, he’s actually drawing more penalties than he’s committing. He’s riding an unbelievably hot streak right now, and with a strong end of season push he could be looking at a 40/50/90 season in just 69 nice games. Bottom line, Brad is elite as fuck.
Did you like the Rick Nash pick up?
Ok, so Rick Nash comes with a ton of baggage with “I don’t give a fuck” embroidered on it. Having said that, I like the trade for a number of reasons. First, he gives David Krejci the best pure scorer he’s had on his wing since Nathan Horton, giving the Bruins a legitimate 2nd line for the first time in years. It’s a signal from management that they believe in this team’s ability to make a deep run right now. Most importantly, Sweeney didn’t mortgage the future for a rental. Had he moved any of the aforementioned young players like Debrusk, who was rumored as a bargaining chip, I’d be a lot more sour on the move.
Is this team Cup-worthy?
Of course the caveat to the optimism surrounding Nash is that this team is still playing for a silver medal in the East. I think the deadline moves made the Bruins a better team, but I don’t know if they pushed them to the front of the race. Barring a major injury to Tampa’s murderers’ row, the Bolts should dance straight to the Cup Finals. On the other hand, there is a special feeling surrounding this Bruins team. Maybe it’s just the fact that they’re actually fun to watch again, but the Garden is buzzing. The tragedy of the current playoff format is that if Boston and Tampa meet up, it won’t be in the Eastern Conference Finals. Should the Bruins survive a matchup with Yzerman’s death squad, though, I would bet my children on the Bruins lifting the Cup.

 

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Game #69 and #70 – Hawks vs. Bruins Douchebag Du Jour: Hey Marchand Is Something Of A Dog, Too

By Sam Fels 1428 0

In a minute, you’ll see that we highly question Boston’s acquisition of Rick Nash for their playoff run. Because Rick Nash has been a playoff dog his entire career. Well you know something? Brad Marchand is kind of one as well.

Since his rookie year, where he was dynamite to help the Bruins win their lone Cup in this era, Marchand has played in 47 playoff games. He has six goals in those and 24 points. You may remember he did exactly jack and shit in the Final against the Hawks in ’13, nary registering a point and pretty much being a ghost once Patrice Bergeron’s organs all broke. He didn’t manage a goal in 12 games the following season when the Bruins went back to their usual role of coughing up sputum whenever they see the Canadiens in the playoffs and fucking up a truly powerful regular season. He had one goal in their first-round capitulation to the simply-awful Senators last year.

We’re giving up on our theory that Marchand would suck if he didn’t play with Bergeron every single shift of his career (and he pretty much has). It certainly helped his cause, but his level hasn’t dropped much since Bergeron got hurt. But if the Bruins are going to make good on this surprising campaign and at least throw a scare into the Lightning in the second round, they’ll need their rat-faced shitgibbon to actually show up in the postseason. Which he hasn’t in seven years now. And if he does show, it’ll probably be for low-bridging someone away from the puck or trying to taunt Vancouver fans again.

Boy, him and Nash together. The Boston media is going to feast.

 

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Friday Thoughts: Gustafsson, Rutta, And Last Night’s Pummeling

By Sam Fels 2210 0

It’s been a couple days so we should get to it. Whatever your list is of grievances that you’d like to air by firing Stan Bowman, if you have one, you can add two more.

I’m sure the Hawks thought it would slip under the radar, and it kind of did because everything they do these days slips under the radar because almost all of the city doesn’t give a flying fuck about them anymore. Either way, the Hawks re-signed both Eric Gustafsson and Jan Rutta to extensions, and combined they will cost $3.5 million combined next year.

I’m going to try and be reasonable about this….

WHAT IN THE HOLY FUCK IS THIS???!!!!

Now that that’s out, let’s get to it. There’s really no other way to dress this. Both Eric Gustafsson and Jan Rutta suck. They might not be the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked, but they’re not far from the team photo. Neither one of these guys will ever rise to the level of anything more than a third-pairing d-man.

For literally no reason, Stan Bowman doubled Gustafsson’s salary. All he had to offer him was about 700K. Now, you might think the difference of about $500K really isn’t worth worrying about, but as we’ve seen, every dollar counts in a cap era, even if the cap goes up. And Gustafsson has shown nothing to warrant being offered much more than a pointed finger to the door. If he were going to provide offensive spark, we would have seen it by now. He’s 25 and basically never really flashed in the NHL. How much longer are you going to wait? And who was Stan bidding against? Who was coming to save Gustafsson from Chicago?

The Rutta one is even more baffling. He can’t regularly crack the lineup even after the trade of Michal Kempny, and yet you just hand him $2.3 million? What is it he does? Is Stan so fixated by the fact he’s been able to spasm six goals into the net and no one else on the blue line can find the right zip code with their shots? Again, what was Rutta going to get on the open market?

Here’s a list of UFA d-men you could probably get for $2.3 million this summer: Calvin de Haan, Cody Ceci, Luca Sbisa, John Moore, maybe Thomas Hickey, Dalton Prout, the aforementioned Kempny. Most of these guys suck, and yet all of them are better than Rutta.

It’s not like Stan hasn’t been able to admit a mistake. Fuck, he just traded Ryan Hartman and he wasn’t a mistake (and I’m fairly sure that trade is going to work out as having “sucked”). I have no idea why he’s doubling down on these two, but if it costs the Hawks a higher quality free agent this summer or a trade, it honestly probably should be the final nail in his coffin.

-I don’t think we can state long enough and hard enough just how pathetic the Hawks top players were last night. And you can toss out all the caveats you want–Canes are more desperate, they’ve always been a good possession team, blah blah blah–to have Corsi marks under 20% you actually have to try to do so.

I try and reserve myself about games where the Hawks haven’t looked like they care. Losing teams always look “flat,” or at least do most of the time. But the Hawks are a good possession team, or at least they have been. And for their top line and top pairing to simply get skulled by a team that doesn’t actually have a top line is simply unacceptable. You can’t say they were all there, or fully focused, to be that bad.

I can’t ask this team much more than to actually just show up and finish out the season professionally. Last night was anything but. That falls squarely on the leadership. They’re not going to fire Toews and Keith and Seabrook as captains, at least I doubt it. So you know where that goes. But I’m guessing Rocky and McD are too chickenshit to let that happen, nor do they have the scruples to replace Stan competently (which would involve probably firing Q anyway). So if the Hawks don’t care now, why am I going to assume they will next year at this time after another seven months of listening to a coach’s voice it’s becoming more and more apparent they’ve tired of?

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Game #68 Strong Men Also Cry – Hawks 2, Hurricanes 3

By Rose Rankin 2131 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

My all-time favorite movie turned 20 years old this week, and seeing as Our Special Boy was the one to score the game-winning goal tonight, it seemed appropriate to recall this piece of wisdom from the other Jeffrey Lebowski, the millionaire. To the bullets:

–The Hawks got killed in possession and shots tonight, so even those who played well (more to come on that) seemed like they had a dismal night if you just look at those stats (so don’t bother). We’re used to the Hawks dominating in those numbers while still managing to lose, but tonight they had a 37.5, 22.2, and 36.7 CF% in each period. Added to that, for most of the game the Canes had double or more than the number of shots that the Hawks did. The Hawks barely got to over half the amount of Canes’ shots, finishing with 24 to 40. Now, given the Canes’ consistency in giving up so few chances, I can’t say I’m exactly shocked by this. The fact that the Hawks only managed 24 shots but scored twice really drives home the point that Scott Darling has been quite bad.

–On that note, J-F Berube stole the show, and except for the one number that matters most, he led in every metric both qualitative and quantitative. I should point out that the first respective goals for each team couldn’t really be pinned on either goalie. Jurco tipped in a monstrous, classic Seabrook shot from the point, and a few minutes later Lindholm did exactly the same off Slavin’s own very Seabrookian shot. Redirects are tough to deal with. However, the second Hawks goal demonstrated what second-rate goaltending will get you. Sharp’s goal was all thanks to Duclair wresting the puck from under Darling’s pads, who then proceeded to completely lose his positioning which allowed a clumsily falling Sharp to put it in the open net.

Berube, on the other hand, finished the night with a .925 SV% after facing 40 shots. Williams just beat him one-on-one in the second, when today’s spotlight Justin Faulk sprung him the perfect pass as he left the box, and there also wasn’t much Berube could do on Aho’s power play goal off Finnish Jesus’ shot. All of this is to say that Berube’s positioning was far superior to Darling’s all night, and he had pretty saves throughout the game, with both the pads and the glove, which kept this from being an embarrassment. Notable among those were his stops in the third on Staal at point-blank range, and Skinner who, every time they said his name I just heard “Skinner, Skinner, faster than liiiiiightning…”

–Anthony Duclair had a strong performance, and I honestly was confused whether having Foley and Eddie say complimentary things about him during the broadcast was some kind of reverse-motherfuck, or if they were genuinely praising him and not following a script. This is how many strands are in old Duder’s head. But the point is, Duclair’s persistence in the crease led to the second goal, and he and Sharp had moments of chemistry. Granted, Duclair fumbled a pass at his feet when he had Darling one-on-one, and he botched a pass to Kampf in the same sequence. But, for being on the fourth line he was on the puck consistently, had a few shots and an assist. If you’re trying to work your way back up after a demotion, making Patrick Sharp look serviceable is a pretty nice feat.

–Of course Teuvo’s shot was the one that won the game. I know Aho is credited with the goal but it was yet another redirect. And it seemed destined to happen, but it still hurts.

The Hurricanes are fighting for a playoff spot, and with the exception of TVR, I can’t really root against any of the Parade of Former Hawks. So good for them, good for Our Special Boy, and good for Berube who still comes out looking decent from all this. Onward and upward.

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Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – March 8th

By Sam Fels 1286 0

First Screen Viewing

Flyers vs. Bruins – 6pm

After getting their dick knocked in the dirt by the Penguins, in probably a pretty sobering preview of what might away in April or May, the Flyers head up I-95 to Boston to take on one of the other best teams in the league in the Bruins. The Bs are without their #1 center and #1 d-man in Patrice Bergeron and Charlie McAvoy, and yet they keep on rolling. Both Khudobin and Rask have hit something of a cold streak though so that might be the breaking point. The Flyers still need all the points they can get to avoid dropping out of the automatic spots or even out altogether. It’s that tight in the Metro. Also getting brained by two Cup contenders two nights in a row wouldn’t do much for morale. Then again neither does living in Philadelphia.

Second Screen Viewing

Jets vs. Devils – 6pm

The Devils find themselves swimming against the current as well in the Metro, as a Taylor Hall binge hasn’t been able to save them from dropping a few. They’re five points up on the Panthers but the Cats have three games in hand on them so it could get hairy in a hurry. Hairy in a hurry, he said. That’s funny. But the hockey world wants Taylor Hall in the playoffs. We need it. The Jets seem pretty entrenched in second in the Central, six points back of the Preds and six points ahead of the Wild. Geographical oddity that, six points from everywhere! Anyway, these are two of the faster teams in the league, so should be a good one for the 388 people in Newark who bother to show up instead of complaining about the snow, a New York metro area tradition.

Other Games

Avalanche vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm

Sabres vs. Senators – 6:30

Knights vs. Red Wings – 6:30

Rangers vs. Lightning – 6:30

Canadiens vs. Panthers – 6:30

Ducks vs. Predators – 7pm

Islanders vs. Oilers – 8pm

Capitals vs. Kings – 9:30

Blues vs. Sharks – 9:30

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Game #68 – Hurricanes vs. Hawks Spotlight: Is This All There Is, Justin Faulk?

By Sam Fels 1826 0

Four years ago, Justin Faulk was something of a surprise inclusion on Team USA in Sochi. We got it, of course. He had been a young, dynamic puck-mover simply plying his trade in anonymity in Carolina, which as far as hockey coverage is concerned might as well be Narnia. While the Hurricanes have always been a metric-lovers delight under Bill Peters, for the most part Faulk had stayed above the team-rate and pushed the play the other way. It’s why you heard rumors of him being the name exchanged for Taylor Hall once upon a time, and he would have been a great improvement on Adam Larsson. Then again, so would dozens of players, but we’ve done the Chiarelli post before.

Now we sort of wonder if Faulk missed the point where he was supposed to take THE LEAP. And if it’s going to come around again for him to jump off.

On this Canes team, and last year’s, Faulk has essentially been skating second-pairing shifts. Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin take the hardest shifts in terms of both zone-starts and competition. They do the mine-sweeping. Faulk and rookie Haydn Fleury (and his missing “e”) or Noah Hanafin are next up. Everything is basically set-up for Faulk to mimic what Brent Burns does in San Jose, to at least be the poor man’s version of that (or the Carolina version, if you will. And you won’t). Simply slaughter the competition below the top lines of the opponent.

And yet, Faulk comes into this one with just 26 points. That’s not horrible, of course, but given Faulk’s skillset you can’t help but wonder if he shouldn’t be pushing 50 or 60 points when the season is over. And he’s never really come close to that. His career-year was three seasons ago already when he managed 49 points.

Faulk still pushes the play at a clip of 54% Corsi and that’s above the team-rate. But his scoring-chance percentage is below the team rate, and while some of that can be attributed to the growing pains of Fleury when they’ve been paired, considering they’re getting second and third lines you have to figure that should be better.

Faulk has also been undone by a 3.6% shooting-percentage, almost half his career-rate. And he’s firing more attempts than he ever has, and getting more scoring-chances per game than he ever has. Clearly bad luck is playing a huge role in this.

Which makes one wonder if a team couldn’t get Faulk this summer at a possibly lower rate than they should if they’re looking at those numbers. After this season, even if they’ll both be RFAs, both Pesce and Slavin are going to be due big raises. After next year so will Fleury. Elias Lindholm up front is due one after this season, and Teuvo is up after next. While the Canes have plenty of cap space, they’re something of a budget team, at least for right now, though that could change with their new nutcase owner. And they have to make room to find a #1 center, and probably a goalie if Scott Darling can’t find reverse on a Russian tank anytime soon.

So you know what we’re thinking. Justin Faulk would solve a lot of problems around this town, though what the Hawks have to offer is unclear. The Canes would certainly ask for Schmaltz or DeBrincat, and for the Hawks that might just be running in place. You can be sure the Leafs, Oilers, Canadiens, Sabres, and a host of others will be bothering Ron Francis at the draft if he puts Faulk on the market. Faulk has two years left on his deal that pays him a mere $4.8 per, so his value is through the roof. The Canes won’t get any more for him than they will this summer.

But is he the unlucky player who will start finding the net and assists with regularity next season given what his chances are? Or is he the one who just quite can’t break through? It’s probably worth finding out for someone.

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