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Game #72 – Hawks vs. Sabres Douchebag Du Jour: Buffalo – The Phish Fans Of Sports

By Sam Fels March 17, 2018 2247 0

Every year, when the national TV schedule comes out, you probably have the same first reaction we do. You’ll look at it and say, “Why the fuck are the Sabres on so much?” You may mock how much the Hawks and Rangers are on, but at least they come from major markets and/or tend to be popular. But the Sabres? They’ve sucked since the Bush administration. What are we doing here?

And then you see them on TV, and you see opposing arenas filled with blue and white. And you wonder where the hell they come from. Did you know you had so many Buffalo ex-pats in your region? Or do they travel? Sure, you say, you can understand the impulse to get out of Buffalo anywhere from a few days to permanently, but at the rate you see them you wonder if there’s anyone left in Buffalo itself.

The Sabres have one of the biggest followings of any team. And we don’t know why other than BUFFALO. People from there are just either proud or mourning that fact, and wear it on their sleeve. Except Sabres fans don’t have the good grace to put each other through tables for our entertainment. They’re just in the way, either in the arena in person or on TV.

Like certain bands who sell out venues far bigger than you’d think they’d have any right to. How are this many people flocking to see something that sucks so far away? And yet it keeps happening. The Sabres draw well at home and invade every building in the league and they have blown chunks forever. It’s almost as if the sucking draws more of their kind out. Like it’s some fucking badge or something. The more the outsiders are confused it seems the cult is only more attached.

So fine. We hope the Sabres suck forever. Deep down, Sabres fans want it anyway. They love that living in their city is miserable and anyone with any slice of hope and dreams of anything leaves. They love that everyone thinks their city is a winter hellscape or the truly lost and forgotten. So why should the hockey team be any different? We know the Bills will never win a Super Bowl…

Game #72 Preview

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Game #72 – Hawks vs. Sabres: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels March 17, 2018 1413 0

Game #72 Preview

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Game #72 – Hawks vs. Sabres: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels March 17, 2018 1543 0

Game #72 Preview

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Let’s Find Some Hope: Let’s Buy John Tavares

By Sam Fels March 16, 2018 4918 0

Ride the snake.

Ok, so you’re Stan Bowman. Yes, you’re quite bald. It’s ok. The world doesn’t end if everyone can see the top of your head. Trust me. Anyway, though you may have gone to the higher-ups last summer and told them you have a plan to rebuild the roster on-the-fly, and even if they totally believed you, you’re under serious pressure. No matter what you laid out to Rocky and McDonough, probably using very small hockey words, this is not what you told them would happen. Sure, you can claim Corey Crawford getting hurt is the same as Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady or Drew Brees getting hurt, such was his importance to his team. And that’s not even wrong. And hell, they may even go with you on that. But a year missing the playoffs this badly after two first-round exits still has them more in a “glower” position than “hopeful.” You need results and you need them next year.

And sure, if you do actually get analytical instead of just telling us you do because that’s what you think everyone wants you to say, you could play it safe with a move here or there, knowing that there’s every chance Crow stays healthy next year, Toews’s and Saad’s SH% pop back up simply because HOCKEY!, Top Cat and Schmaltz continue to grow, Sikura is just as good as you think he is, and Vinnie Hinostroza has a breakout year that his metrics suggest he very well could. Hell, maybe even Duncan Keith can play the hits for just one more season. Hell, that’s a playoff team there. You make one move at the deadline, and maybe it’s even more.

Still, the higher-ups want more. If all those things don’t happen, you’re out on your ass. Yes, with your resume and last name and this being HOCKEY! you probably won’t be out of a job long. But is that how you’re goin’ out? Like some punk “with a plan?” Or you firing all the guns at once, knowing if it doesn’t work it’s going to be someone else’s problem anyway? You only have max one or two seasons to do anything with this group anyway. Clock’s ticking. You say, “Fuck it. you only live once and dyin’ would be a stone groove.”

You sign John Tavares. $11 million a year. $12 million a year, who fucking cares? This is your blaze of glory. Win next year and ain’t no one gonna give a shit about a fuck.

“But Sam,” you’re saying out there, “there’s no way the Hawks could do that!” Well, actually there is.

Right now, the Hawks will have about $12 million in cap space if the cap goes up to $80 million as has been rumored. And that’s if they don’t find a way to shuffle off Hossa’s hit to some hinterland hockey landfill. Or they could do what they didn’t do last summer and just use it in the summer and white-knuckle it through the season. Again, if you’re Stan Bowman, you need results next season or you’re toast. It’s time for risk. So either moving Hossa’s contract or just using his LTIR gives the Hawks damn near $18 million to play with. Fuck and yes. It could be more if you can flog Artem Anisimov to some destination without taking too much money back.

You basically have no one to re-sign. You can punt Patrick Sharp to the bunny farm upstate where he’s longed to be for two seasons. Anthony Duclair won’t have warranted more than the 10% raise he’s due as an RFA, which is $1.5 million or so. We love Vinnie Smalls, but he’s not getting any more than $1 or $1.2 million. So you’re still just south of $16 mildo to play with. That’s plenty for the $11-12M you’d have to throw at Tavares.

“But Sam,” you’re saying, “Tavares is a pretty low-key guy. He’s not going to want to come here!” Shut up, moron. Let me disabuse you of that notion.

One, this is not a testing hockey market. You’ve seen that. It’s the NHL’s fourth biggest market, yes. But no one cares when the Hawks are bad. Look at it now. These guys facing really hard questions every practice? There’s like three full-time beat reporters for fuck’s sake. No one’s talking about them on the radio or TV. You don’t have a roundtable of concussed ex players/drunk writers with an hour to tell you why you suck. They’re talking about Kris Bryant here. There’s no Steve Simmons to get up your ass, and I’ll be bored and old next year. I ain’t gonna bother ya. You can fly under the radar here easy.

Second, even if there is “furor,” that’s Toews’s job. Or Kane’s, I suppose. Seabrook’s. You’re not first in the firing line. Tavares could play his hockey and go home. But it’s just big enough to keep him in the endorsements/advertisements world if he so desires.

So that makes it a more desirable destination for him than say, Montreal or Toronto or even Vancouver. We’ll circle back to this.

Your top six, if Stan goes Wild West:

Saad-Tavares-Hinostroza/Duclair

Top Cat-Toews-Kane

Sure, you could arrange this several ways. But Tavares has gotten Anders Lee a 35+ goal season and there’s nothing Anders Lee can do that Brandon Saad can’t. This team scores, especially with Schmaltz as a #3 center simply clocking whatever bums he finds across from him with Sikura and whichever of Hinostroza or Duclair is not on the top six. It scores a lot.

“Sam!” you’ll exclaim, “how are the Hawks going to afford all of Kane, Toews, Tavares, Seabrook, Keith, Saad, and then raises for Schmaltz or DeBrincat or more?” There’s going to be another lockout, you ninny. They can hit the reset button on one or two of these deals under a new system. And you’re probably fucked by that point anyway.

“But Sam,” you’ll interject, “this does nothing to solve an already porous blue line!” Fuck you! I can’t do everything here!

Ok yeah, your blue line would still suck and you can’t get out of the Central or West without one. The free agent class of d-men makes you vomit all the colors of the rainbow. You don’t have the pieces to acquire Erik Karlsson, unless you’re comfortable moving Schmaltz for him. Which you might be after signing Tavares, I don’t know. Maybe you find a way to pry OEL loose at the deadline. Maybe when Vegas reverts back to being an expansion team next year they loose Nate Schmidt before he’s a free agent. There are solutions to every problem.

“But Sam,” you say as I get more annoyed with your pragmatism, “everyone’s going to want Tavares and the Hawks haven’t won a bidding war since Hossa!”

Yeah ok, fine. They haven’t even really tried either. They wanted us to believe they were in on Zach Parise in ’12, though I have my doubts. But the Hawks name and market is still an awfully big draw, especially when you consider Tavares has already been on a Team Canada with Toews and Keith.

He’s not going to Montreal. Who wants to deal with that shit? Toronto doesn’t need nor can afford him. Vancouver is clueless and stupid. Tampa… ok, well that could be a problem if they can lose Callahan’s bloated checks for looking angry. But maybe they want to keep their powder dry for the entire bank chain they’re going to have to hand to Kucherov. Or maybe they’re still after Karlsson. Is Florida going to make a splash? Weather and state income tax aversion are nice, but that team isn’t that much more attractive than the Hawks in the near-term? Detroit might be more clueless and stupid than Vancouver. The Rangers are rebuilding. The Islanders won’t have a home for two or three years. The only language really here is green. Tell me you’re not starting to see it. Tell me a grin isn’t slowly spreading across your face.

C’mon Stan, let’s get nuts. You really don’t have anything to lose.

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Game #71 You Can’t Close the Door When the Walls Caved In – Hawks 2, Jets 6

By Rose Rankin March 15, 2018 2019 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

Let’s just be honest—the steaming pile of dog shit that was the first period tonight ended things just as they were getting started. Sure, they managed another goal but that did nothing other than temporarily hide how embarrassing the score actually was. To the bullets:

–So the aforementioned pile of dogshit…really the first was a comedy of errors. The first and third goals were squarely on Forsberg, who got pulled after giving up three goals on six shots, before they even reached the halfway point of the period. The second goal was a direct result of Kampf and Gustafsson just dithering over who would take the puck in the corner, and Armia stepped in and helped himself to it. Moments later, Wide Dick Arty got completely out-muscled at the blue line, which led to Roslovic’s goal (OK, so maybe that one wasn’t ALL Forsberg’s fault). Then with Berube in, a shitty change led to Little’s goal, and on and on it went.

–The saddest part is this all happened after Saad caught a break and they let his goal barely 10 seconds into the game stand, when it could have been called back for being offside. IMHO, in the parlance of our times, it deserved to be a good goal because there wasn’t indisputable evidence to overturn in (and you know we’ve dealt with this shit before), but I was truly surprised the dumbass war room didn’t overturn it in their infinite lack of wisdom. The fact that they couldn’t muster a camera angle that showed the entire blue line and thus had to give us the shruggy emoji as their explanation of the call is really a perfect metaphor for the league as a whole right now. But that excitement and stroke of luck was authoritatively crushed by the Hawks’ incompetence within minutes.

–That’s not to say that Winnipeg played badly; they didn’t. They led in possession all night, which kinda makes sense when you’re scoring a shitload but they kept it up in the second as well, ending that period with a 52 CF%. In the third both teams were even with 50, but again, by then the outcome was a foregone conclusion. And jeebus is Patrik Laine a beast. He only made the score sheet once with an assist, but he was rolling right past guys like they were standing still (well, in a lot of cases they pretty much were, but you know what I mean). He ended the night with four shots and a 66.7 CF%, and if you went by the eye test alone, he played even better than those numbers.

–Speaking of numbers, the top line actually tried to play, and they managed to be above water in possession and get six shots. Saad had flashes of what we’d been hoping to see this season, but Toews missed the net a bunch as usual and Kane’s give-a-shit meter was down around a 2.5. They were not the truly embarrassing part of the game, even though they weren’t that great.

–The defense was pretty embarrassing, as you might expect in a game where they give up a half dozen goals. Murphy and Keith were caught in that shitty change, Gustafsson’s turnover led to the third goal, and Oesterle and Rutta were mostly invisible. But those re-signings, THAT’S what they needed to do to improve the blue line.

–OK, one bright spot: Despite being thrown in unexpectedly and seemingly struggling at first, Berube looked mostly solid. Yes, he gave up two goals, but let’s pretend he started the game and had given up a total of two…that would be a decent performance for a back-up. By the second he had settled in, and he made some impressive stops in both the second and third periods. Unfortunately by then it was too late, but he handled 30 of the 32 shots he faced and finished with a .938 SV%. Although neither he nor Forsberg has really seized this opportunity to become a top-tier goaltender, he’s definitely made the stronger case for himself as a serviceable backup.

In a way I wished they had given up one more goal just so I could have posted the monkey-peeing-in-his-mouth video, because really that sums up the night quite vividly. Maybe next time. We only 10 more to go, guys!

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Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – March 15th

By Sam Fels March 15, 2018 1163 0

First Screen Viewing

Blue Jackets vs. Flyers – 6pm

I can’t tell you either of these teams are good. In fact, I would argue they’re barely middling. But thanks to the odious nature of the Metro and the bottom half of the Atlantic, they’re battling for the two of the last three playoff spots. The Flyers have the third spot in the Metro and the Jackets have the last wild card spot. New Jersey and Florida are the other possibilities. So ths one is pretty important. At least the Flyers are fun. The Jackets are…Torts. Anyway, should be a passionate one.

Second Screen Viewing

Bruins vs. Panthers – 6:30

The Panthers have climbed back into this, mostly because their two goalies are healthy and playing out off their minds. Sasha Barkov going a bit nuclear hasn’t hurt either. They’re four points back of Columbus for the last spot but have three games in hand, which basically means they have to take them all. The Bruins are locked in and everyone’s hurt or rested, so this could be another the Panthers could add to their hot streak and distract people from noticing that Dale Tallon is the biggest reason the Knights are embarrassing the sport.

Other Games

Maple Leafs vs. Sabres – 6pm

Capitals vs. Islanders – 6pm

Penguins vs. Canadiens – 6:30

Avalanche vs. Blues – 7pm

Predators vs. Coyotes – 9pm

Red Wings vs. Kings – 9pm

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Game #71 – Hawks vs. Jets Preview, Proof Of Concept – Fixed Frequencies

By Matt McClure March 15, 2018 1853 0

at

Game Time: 7:00PM CDT
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, WGN-AM 720
Frosty Peters: Jets Nation, Arctic Ice Hockey

After splitting a home-and-home with a decent if injury-depleted Bruins team, the Hawks take another step towards ending this miserable ass season tonight in Winnipeg, where they’ll face a Jets team that might have finally gotten its shit together, but probably hasn’t.

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Game #71 – Hawks vs. Jets Spotlight: Fear The Beard…As Gross As It May Be

By Sam Fels March 15, 2018 1925 0

As someone pointed out on Twitter, sadly we can’t find who, Patrik Laine looks like he would stand and ask you three questions before you could cross his bridge. We all do stupid things as teenagers, and growing really bad facial hair is one of them. It’s like a new toy you have to try out. Clearly, Laine is in this phase. It also doesn’t help that Finnish people are just weird to begin with, and gives him a truly creepy, this guy plays with toys at home vibe.

Something Laine is also doing that’s incredibly stupid as a teenager is the rate at which he scores.

Off the top, Laine has 77 goals before his 20th birthday. No one’s bested that in 29 years, which was Jimmy Carson. The only other better mark as a teenager since 1980 is Dale Hawerchuk’s 85, also in Winnipeg, in 1983. No one else in 38 years has scored more goals at 18 and 19 than Laine. His two-season mark is better than Crosby, Stamkos, Jagr, Kovalchuk, everyone else. And Hawerchuk and Jimmy Carson played in an era when goalies were essentially just inflatable flappy-arm guys you see at car dealerships (and the Half Acre brewery, for some reason. Trust us).

Laine also converts at an extraordinary rate. His career 18.7 shooting-percentage is second since the Great Bettman 2005 Lockout, behind only Anson Carter. And you’ll recall Carter racked most of that up playing with the Sedins, so it didn’t involve much more than standing near the crease and letting the Children of The Corn ping pucks off of him (The Nuno Gomes Policy, for you soccer fans). This is amongst players who have played 100 games. It blows the greatest scorer of the generation, or possibly any generation, Alex Ovechkin’s career mark of 12.7 out of the water.

What’s really frightening is that Laine doesn’t shoot nearly as often as some of the other premier goal scorers in the league. He ranks 27th in total shots. He ranks 71st in shots per 60 at even-strength. He ranks 33rd in attempts per 60 at even-strength. And yet he’s 5th in goals per 60 at even-strength.

Even on the power play you won’t see him dominating the shots and attempts there. He’s 16th in shots per 60 while on the advantage, 21st in attempts per 60 on the power play, but you won’t find anyone who scores more often on the PP than Laine. So the question the league should be asking is what happens if he starts firing pucks at Ovechkin-like rates for a season? Just so you have some idea, Ovechkin’s 298 shots with Laine’s 19.7% SH% this year would see Laine with 58 goals already.

Perhaps one thing holding Laine back in terms of the amount of rubber he can violently hurl at goaltenders is that he has yet to be a dominant possession player. Whereas Ovechkin and Stamkos and Crosby and Malkin have always consistently been above-water in Corsi-percentages and comfortably ahead of their team-rates, Laine has yet to do that in two seasons. Getting ahead of the team-rate in Winnipeg is tricky because they’ve actually been a very good possession team the past two years, but Laine hasn’t been above water either season. If he spent more time in the offensive zone, his goal-scoring numbers would simply be pornographic. You would think playing with Ehlers and Little would make for better possession numbers, but it just hasn’t.

Of course, some of this is going to make for quite the headache for the Jets front office. They’re looking at giving Laine, Trouba, Wheeler, and Hellebuyck new paper over the next two summers, and Toby Enstrom and Tyler Myers are the only big-ticket items coming off the books in that time. While Laine will only be an RFA, the Jets are not going to get him on a bridge-deal you wouldn’t think. While offer-sheets just don’t happen, tossing three or four first-round picks at a historical scorer like Laine might actually make sense for a team.

Laine’s release already is up there with the best of all-time, and takes no backseat to Ovie’s or Artemi Panarin’s. If Mike Bossy played in this era, this very well might be what it would have looked like.

Game #71 Preview

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Game #71 – Hawks vs. Jets Q&A: Game Time Art

By Sam Fels March 15, 2018 1638 0

Game Time Art is still our Jets weirdo. And he’s happy to be so. Which tells you everything you need to know. Follow him @GameTimeArt.

So the Jets have lost to the Preds twice in the past couple weeks. Does that put any fear into your playoff hopes or does the fact that the Jets (barring something stupid) will win their first playoff game and quite possibly series since being resurrected be enough for everyone?

In a strange way it doesn’t really put fear into most Jets fans because those last two meetings have been with a Jets team with four or more regulars out of the lineup including their top center and top defenseman and really save for a stretch of ten minutes at the end of one game and ten minutes at the start of the other, a depleted Jets lineup hung in ok against the Preds, so I think there is still hope that if the Jets can get healthy, they should give Nashville a good fight. That said, I think everyone expects good things from the first round and then we’ll worry about a potential second round blood bath against the Predators.

Blake Wheeler has 77 points. He shifted to center when Scheifele was hurt. And yet he doesn’t seem to be getting any Hart Trophy love. While it would be hard to make a case for him over say MacKinnon or Hall or Malkin or Kucherov, shouldn’t he at least be discussed?

Maybe a little… If there was an award for most inspiring leader who leads inspiringly – is that the Messier award? – then Blake should get that hands down. As far as most valuable player, I’d say he deserves a brief mention but I don’t even know if he’s the MVP on the Jets as I’d argue Connor Hellebuyck has been far more important to the Jets win totals than anything Blake has done. Then again, maybe I’m just not used to seeing actual good goaltending for my team so I could be biased.

Flying under the radar a bit is Kyle Connor, thanks to Wheeler and Laine and Barzal in the Calder race. What’s most impressive about his game as a rookie?

I love Connor’s ability to weave in and out of traffic when he has the puck, especially when it comes to skating into the offensive zone. He seems to have this ability to find just enough room on the ice to make a move past a defender or at the very least give himself an extra second to move the puck forward or pass it off to a teammate.

How much has Trouba been missed?

A lot and really it’s only because with Trouba out, it has meant Tyler Myers I’d argue has gotten more minutes per game than he can handle and Myers’ game – especially in the defensive zone – has suffered because of it. Byfuglien has done well in stepping up as he does and Josh Morrissey is quietly good as always, but Trouba is kind of the lynchpin that holds the Jets defense together. To put it in a much dumber context, Trouba to the Jets defense is like syrup to waffles. Sure, the waffles are ok without it, maybe even good depending on the quality of the other ingredients you have, but syrup just makes the entire dish so much better. Jacob Trouba is syrup.

With only 12 games to go…what do you foresee for the Jets come the spring?

Increased health going into the playoffs for one thing, a first round series where the Jets have home ice and which should be a win because I think they match up well against Minnesota, Dallas or Colorado and then a second round where the limits of my heart being able to function properly will be severely tested.

Game #71 Preview