Everything Else

High On The Hog: Texas Stars Series Preview

By Jon Fromi 1656 0

The Rockford IceHogs are in rarefied air this spring. The Flying Piglets of Winnebago County are riding a hot group of veterans, freshman goalie Collin Delia and a lethal power play into the Western Conference Final with the Texas Stars.

The Hogs are the winners of seven straight games in the postseason, sweeping both the Chicago Wolves and Manitoba Moose to reach the third round. This is the farthest a Rockford AHL squad has advanced in the Calder Cup Playoffs. Fans have flocked to the BMO Harris Bank Center to watch this exciting mix of youngsters and veterans who have put it together at the most opportune of times.

Rockford will begin the series in Cedar Park for Games 1 and 2 on Friday, May 18 and Sunday, May 20. The action returns to the BMO next Tuesday, Thursday and, if necessary, Friday.

Will that Game 5 be required, or will the IceHogs be able to dispense of their opponent as they did their Central Division adversaries? I’m holding off on the sweep talk, because the Stars present a formidable challenge.

The IceHogs are 3-1 in head-to-head action with Texas (who join the Central Division starting next season) in 2017-18. However, it’s best to look at the two April contests in Cedar Park that were split between the two teams.

Rockford took the April 6 contest in a shootout, winning 3-2 on the strength of two power-play goals and a fifth-round shootout winner from Viktor Svedberg. Two days later, the Stars put up a trio of goals in the third period, rallying from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Hogs 4-3.

Finishing second in the Pacific Division, Texas eliminated Ontario in four games before knocking off Tuscon in five. The Stars beat the Roadrunners in overtime Saturday night to win their division final.

Texas is a veteran-laden team that likes to push the pace of the game and has a red-hot goalie in net. In other words, the Stars are a lot like Rockford in make up heading into the Western Conference Final.

Since the play in net could well dictate which team moves on to the Calder Cup Final, we’ll start with a look in the respective cages to begin this look at the two teams.

Anchoring the Texas run and playing out of his mind of late is 35-year-old Mike McKenna. The Stars brought him in to be the starter this season after helping take Syracuse to the Calder Cup Final the previous spring. McKenna lost that job to Landon Bow with some spotty play in the regular season but has been stellar for Texas in the playoffs.

McKenna has a pair of shutouts in the postseason. He also relieved Bow in the second period of Game 3 of the Stars first-round series with Ontario and held the Reign scoreless for 68:19 as Texas prevailed 5-4 in double overtime.

The veteran of 13 AHL seasons (and 24 NHL games in that span) is sporting a 1.65 GAA and a .952 save percentage on nearly 35 shots per contest.

For Rockford, Delia has been equally impressive, with a 1.64 GAA and a .948 save percentage. He’s faced a couple of fewer shots per game (just under 32 shots), but he has been first star in four of the IceHogs seven playoff wins.

This Western Conference Final could very well wind up a case of which goalie is better on a given night. Delia has been as cool as a Rancho Cucamonga cucumber for the Hogs. The edge in experience obviously goes to McKenna, who has 54 AHL playoff games under his belt. What matters now is the games that loom ahead of these two net-minders.

 

Skaters

Experience is all over the Texas lineup. The Stars top line, Travis Morin (10 G, 51 A), Justin Dowling (13 G, 28 A) and Curtis McKenzie (25 G, 23 A) are all holdovers from the 2014 Calder Cup Champs. Defensemen Dillon Heatherington (Lake Erie in 2016) and Andrew Bodnerchuk (Manchester in 2015) have also hoisted Calder Cups in their long AHL careers.

Nine-year vet Brent Regner, who Hogs fans may remember from his time with the Wolves and the Peoria Rivermen, had himself a career year with 10 goals and 21 assists in the regular season. Another veteran, Mark Mangene (7 G, 19 A) has spent time as a forward and a defensemen in the playoffs.

Former Sabres and Canadiens forward Brian Flynn spent 2017-18 with Texas and was quite productive (18 G, 29 A). He leads the Stars with six playoff goals.

Add in solid rookies like Roope Hintz (20 G, 15 A) and Sheldon Dries (19 G, 11 A) to a potent offensive group. First-year defenseman Gavin Bayreuther (7 G, 25 A) is picking up his game in the playoffs.

On the IceHogs side of the ledger, the move that brought Chris DiDomenico to Rockford keeps looking better and better. The veteran forward brings an edge to the Hogs that is evident in the playoffs. With four goals and seven helpers in the postseason, DiDomenico leads the team in scoring and is a catalyst on the power play along with Cody Franson (4 G, 4 A) and Adam Clendening (1 G, 8 A).

A real x-factor in the playoffs for Rockford has been Victor Ejdsell, who brings extra offensive skill to the table. Ejdsell had four points against Manitoba in the Central Division Final and leads the IceHogs with five goals.

Carl Dahlstrom and Viktor Svedberg have paired with Clendening and Franson, respectively, to form two tough defensive pairings. Gustav Forsling, who skated in 41 games for the Blackhawks this season, is on the third pairing with Darren Raddysh. This should give you an idea of the depth the Hogs boast on the blueline.

What has served as Rockford’s fourth forward line has also been led by a player with NHL experience. Tanner Kero has lent his defensive prowess with fast-skating William Pelletier and Anthony Louis. Again, to have players like Kero and Louis, who led the IceHogs in points in the regular season, skating in a fourth-line role speaks volumes about Rockford’s playoff depth.

Andreas Martinsen (2 G, 2 A in the playoffs), John Hayden and Lance Bouma have provided muscle for Rockford. The latter two have not made a big impact on the scoreboard in the postseason. Like players such as Kero and Luke Johnson, however, Hayden and Bouma could be players that step up against the Stars in the box score.

 

Special Teams

Rockford’s power play has been nothing short of awesome in the postseason, converting on 37.5 percent of its chances. The first unit of Franson, Clendening, DiDomenico, Johnson and Tyler Sikura have scored 10 of the Hogs 15 goals with opponents in the box.

The three veterans move the puck around the offensive zone until Franson gets open at the left dot for the one-timer. If the shot doesn’t find twine, Johnson and Sikura are there to clean up. If that look doesn’t pan out, it’s Clendening from the point or DiDomenico skating into the slot. That formula has been hard to stop.

Texas, however, held a pretty good Tuscon man advantage to just two goals in 17 opportunities in their Pacific Division Final. The penalty kill unit, which was less than average in the regular season, has stiffened up a bit. The Stars figure to be a more disciplined team than the Moose were; keeping the Hogs top power play unit off the ice will be a prime directive for Texas.

The IceHogs have been shorthanded 28 times in the playoffs and have surrendered just two goals. Neither of those were by Manitoba. Special teams have been a huge difference-maker. At some point, the Hogs may have to pick up the scoring at even strength. It will be fun to see how long this bunch can keep up the power play dominance, though.

For Rockford, the key will be the opening weekend of action and taking advantage of the 2-3-2 AHL playoff format. Getting one game in Cedar Park will give the IceHogs the chance to close out the series at home.

To say the Hogs are rolling at this point of the Calder Cup Playoffs would be an understatement. This group has the kind of chemistry that wins championships. Rockford is deep on both ends of the ice. They have dictated the style of play against two solid division opponents. It is safe to say that they have worn the opposition down with superior depth.

Texas is a veteran team that, on paper, has the horses to keep pace with the IceHogs. Like Rockford, the Stars seem to be hitting their peak right now. It should result in an exciting series.

Follow me on twitter @JonFromi for thoughts and updates on the IceHogs all through the playoffs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Everything Else

Watching The Party – FFUD’s Conference Final Preview: Knights vs. Jets or High Speed Dirt

By Sam Fels 1864 0

 vs. 

 

Now that we’ve officially buried the Predators, it’s time to look forward to the West Final. I feel like we’ve gotten to the point, or maybe I just have personally, where it’s time to stop fighting against the Knights. Because if nothing else, this series is going to be in 5th gear or however long it lasts. We didn’t quite get the Fury Road remake we wanted in the previous round, as the Preds could only win when they pumped the brakes on everything. The Knights aren’t capable, and don’t know, any other way than what got them here.

Goalies: That’s the strange thing about this series, is that no matter the speeds it attains, the vapor trails it leaves, or however many chances are created, it could still end up 2-1 for every game. That’s how well these two goalies are playing.

There’s really nothing to say about Marc-Andre Fleury at this point. He’s clearly gotten hold of some eye of newt or something. You can’t even say his defense helped him out, because he made over 30 saves in the first four games of the San Jose series. Granted, two of those were OT games but that’s still work. A .951 is a .951, much like a football in the groin is a football in the groin. He’s .965 at evens.

The one thing you can say is that Fleury hasn’t really seen a team of assassins in the first two rounds. The Kings plan of attack was hoping the Knights would pass out from boredom. The Sharks had two lines or so going, but without Thornton they were certainly limited. There are no such limits to the Jets, and you feel like Fleury is going to have to come up with a handful of 35-40 save performances just to keep the Knights in this.

It’s kind of weird that Connor Hellebuyck has a .940 at evens and he’s not even close to the other goalie in this series. Hellebuyck was marvelous in Game 7 after being pretty wonky in Game 6. He buckled under the pressure of the Predators at times when they were still trying to drag race with the Jets, and the Knights won’t shrink from that at any point. So he’s going to need more of his 36-save performance form from Game 7 than how he was early in the series.

Defense: You’d say this is the Jets’ biggest advantage, but much like the Penguins before them the Knights do the best they can to take their defense out of the equation. They don’t really care how many chances they give up, especially with Fleury playing like this, as long as they can turn the puck up the other way quickly. Still, that feels like death against this Jets team, who simply have more talented scorers and offensive players and I don’t care if William Karlsson shoots 76% this series. This defense is not keeping this Winnipeg hit squad from creating a ton of chances, and that seems like it’s going to be the end of it. McNabb, Engelland, and Theodore are going to smell distinctly of burnt wood by Game 3.

The Jets might have the same problems. With Byfuglien wandering all over the ice and not showing much interested in either being where he’s supposed to be or ignoring players who don’t matter, there’s going to be plenty of space for the Knights, too. Tyler Myers has some of the same issues and Ben Chiarot looks a lot like the Bears’ free safeties of this decade in trying to cover for him. Trouba and Morrison are going to get a lot of work in this series, and Maurice should be playing them the most instead of DAT BIG BUCK GUY. But he won’t, and he’ll pay at some point. Still, the Jets defense contributes more than the Knights’, and is a little more mobile.

Forwards: This is the fun part. The Knights top two lines have been excellent, but their bottom two weren’t as effective in the second round. Still, it’s packed with speed that’s going to have a lot of space to exploit.

The problem for the Knights is that the Jets have the same thing, except every line they have is better than the one Vegas has. Their top line is better, their second line is better, and so on. The Knights have seen this before, but not over seven games and not this big of a difference. If the Jets can go toe-to-toe with the Preds and beat them to a pulp in that style, they can do the same to the Knights. Like we said in the last round, the Jets only have to match or thereabouts the amount of chances their opponents get, because their talent says they’ll bury more of them. Same holds true here.

Prediction: Obviously, the Knights have something unquantifiable going on here. And if they maintain silly shooting-percentages along with Fleury being a an absurdist exhibition, they can win this. But the Knights need the unexplainable. The Jets don’t. They can skate all day with Vegas, and they have the better players to do it. Something strange definitely can happen here, but you don’t bank on that. Fleury himself probably assures this is a long series. I was tempted to say the Jets in five simply because of the disparity in scoring talent up and down the lineup, but beating Fleury four out of five times, without a return to his previous playoff form, is unlikely. So we’ll call it Jets in 6. 

Everything Else

You Get What Anyone Gets: Saying Goodbye To The Nashville Predators

By Sam Fels 3311 0

You can’t run from who you are.

That’s the lesson for the Predators this spring. They told themselves a lot of things. They did a lot of things above their head the past two seasons. But eventually, the truth always comes back. And the Predators go home before any baubles are handed out, other than the Presidents’ Trophy which will hang around their neck like a boulder. And these days we know that trinket gets won by basic randomness of four or five points over the regular season. But it’ll make a fine banner for the yellow-clad, riddlin’, diddlin’, country fiddlin’ mob to make yet another chant about that involves the word “suck” eight times.

Pekka Rinne came into last spring as a Playoff Fleury – Finnish Model. He miracled three rounds, before turning into pop-rocks-in-soda in the Final. Patric Hornqvist is probably still laughing about that clinching goal he scored from the urinal. That was a warning shot. The Predators did not heed it. He put on a Vezina campaign, which was espionage-worthy cover for what was to come. But deep down you knew this was always there. Has any Vezina winner ever been pulled three times in a series? One has now! Don’t worry, at this time next year Preds fans will be convinced that Rinne will have something new figured out at 36.

But it goes deeper than Rinne of course. Let me present two season stat-lines for you:

79 games, 15 goals, 39 assists, 54 points, +1.24 CF% rel, -0.21 xGF% rel

74 games, 20 goals, 32 assists, 52 points, +4.79 CF% rel, +4.19 xGF% rel

One of those lines is Ryan Johansen’s, who I’m told is part of the new crop of young centers taking over the league and is signed for the next eight years. One is Jonathan Toews’s, who I’m told is clinically dead and his bloated carcass should be served to the lion house at Lincoln Park Zoo as food. By the way, Toews is the second one, the better one. Johansen did manage eight points in this series, which is nice. Mark Scheifele managed seven goals on Nashville ice alone. In case you were curious, Preds fans, that’s what a #1 center looks like. But you aren’t curious. Most people wanna know stuff, Predators fans, but you ain’t even suspicious.

It keeps going. Peter Laviolette basically coached this in the same fashion as an air raid siren. Kevin Fiala went from scoring an OT winner to getting scratched for the fat dude from Bloodsport. Lavvy’s team couldn’t do anything when they weren’t parking a bus in the neutral zone, and now you can look forward to this team quitting on him in November and being out of a job by 2019. You can set your watch to it. Oh and I think the Preds just took another dumb, offensive zone penalty. PK Subban at even-strength showed that “slower” and “roasted” isn’t just on the sign at Jack’s across the street. Hey PK, you were supposed to replace Shea Weber, not emulate him! Kyle Turris apparently played in this series. Much like his entire career, did you know he did? No, no you did not. Turris’s favorite food is a saltine in water. Good thing he’s signed forever to be a myth when it counts.

Will it save us from the holier-than-thou attitude Preds fans and hockey media bestow upon this franchise, only discovering it existed last year? No, probably not. We get it all the time here in Chicago about how the Preds are run “the right way.”

Here’s a phrase for you: Re-signed Mike Ribeiro. Shove your own fist down your throat until you can pop your own belly button out.

This was a team that celebrated welcoming back Mike Fisher, who then went on to be just about the worst forward in the league. He can go away forever now to plan his conversion therapy camp, a lifelong dream I’m sure. Maybe while they’re at it they can figure out what it is Carrie Underwood does for a living. “Carrie Underwood” is just another phrase for “Juliana Zobrist.” Nashville: Give us your talentless, your blonde, your utterly desperate to be relevant. I’m sure Underwood pushed to have one of her songs played whenever Fisher scored. Ha, just kidding, Mike Fisher never scored a goal.

They try to tell you Nashville is the cool place to be now, though how you do that by playing Black Keys after your goals is a real wonder. Just because Jack White chose to live there over Detroit is not something you fly a flag for. “We’re Not Detroit” was the tag line of a spoof video promoting Cleveland, remember. This is still Shit-Kicker-Burgh. They had the CMA awards not long ago. Or was it the NRA convention? Can you tell the difference? I couldn’t!

So now Cellblock and The Yellow Pickup go back home from the summer, rehearsing all those chants that have the same five words. Congratulations Preds fans, your lifted chants make you a run-of-the-mill MLS atmosphere. You must be so proud. Come to think of, Mike Fisher would be a the definition of a big MLS signing, given he’s 93 years old.

The Preds are pretty much jammed into bringing the exact same team back next year, when Rinne will be a year older and mentally broken, Lavvy will be fired, and David Poile can still make a deal to ruin it all. Maybe he can bring Paul Gaustad back. The Jets aren’t going anywhere, either. The Avs, who came a lot closer to pantsing the Preds in the first round than they had any right to, will be better. Corey Crawford likely won’t be hurt. The Stars might actually listen to a coach (yeah, right). It’s not getting any easier for them, and it certainly won’t if Johansen and Subban keep their Chips Ahoy! eating contest going before every game.

So long, Predators. Keep on keepin’ the red out. Maybe you can do a chant about that. We know you won’t have one about winning anything anyone remembers.

 

 

Everything Else

High On The Hog: Excitement Building

By Jon Fromi 1774 0

For fans of the Chicago Blackhawks, the only postseason game in town is out of town. West on I-90, to be exact.

The Rockford IceHogs are a single victory from advancing to the next round of the Calder Cup Playoffs following a 4-1 win over the Manitoba Moose in Game 3 of their Central Division Final. The piglets are flying and Hogs Nation is starting to get excited about treading into unknown territory.

For a franchise that has not made it out of the second round in the eleven years Rockford has been the Blackhawks AHL affiliate, these are heady times. There’s a good chance the Hogs secure a spot in the Western Conference Final Friday night at the BMO Harris Bank Center. If Wednesday’s tilt was any indication, there could be a lot of folks watching Rockford go for the series sweep.

I said that I would be stunned if the Hogs got more than 3,000 fans for Wednesday’s Game 3. Summarily, 3,184 watched Rockford fall behind for the third straight game before scoring the next four goals. Among those fans were Blackhawks chairman Rocky Wirtz, president John McDonough and a bus load of team personnel. They had to have enjoyed what they saw. I know I did.

The blueprint for Wednesday’s rally was similar to the first two games of the series. Rockford tied the game with a power play goal, kept up the pressure on the fore check and wore down the Moose the last two periods.

For a team buoyed by veteran presence, it was the rookies that came up big in Game 3. Tyler Sikura notched his third goal of the series after gaining possession of a rebound of an Adam Clendening shot. The power play goal tied the game at 1-1 6:26 into the second period.

Just over a minute later, Victor Ejdsell found himself in the slot with an open look and fired past Manitoba goalie Eric Comrie for what would be the game-winner. Collin Delia kept the puck out of his net the rest of the way, stopping 36 shots on the evening. His skaters did an excellent job preventing prime scoring opportunities and clearing away pucks around the net.

Rockford picked up an insurance goal 13:52 into the third period. Anthony Louis found himself with the puck behind the Manitoba net and made a nifty pass to William Pelletier. Pelletier knocked the offering into the cage from the left post. Matthew Highmore added an empty-netter to complete the all-rookie goal parade.

The Hogs have had an answer for everything Manitoba has thrown at them this series. At the mid-point of Game 3, a Tanner Kero high stick had Manitoba up a man and with a faceoff in the Rockford zone. Lance Bouma spent the time before the draw chirping with Moose defenseman Mike Sgarbossa.

Once the puck dropped, Bouma skated over to Sgarbossa, a veteran AHL player,  and immediately drew a slashing penalty, ending the power play. Safe to say that Rockford is firmly ensconced in the heads of its opposition.

It appears that fans are beginning to recognize what I’ve been preaching all season; the IceHogs are an exciting young team that play fast paced hockey for 60 minutes a night. Bolstered by some key veterans and anchored by a hot goalie, Rockford’s journey in the playoffs may just be getting started.

Could I be back on Monday with a look at this weekend’s action? All signs point to yes.

 

 

Everything Else

Watching The Party – FFUD’s Conference Final Previews: Capitals vs. Lightning or You Come All This Way For Nothin’

By Sam Fels 1754 0

 vs. 

SCHEDULE: Game 1 Friday, Game 2 Sunday, Game 3 Tuesday, Game 4 Thursday

They’ve broken through. After more than a decade in the Ovechkin Era, and repeated attempts to run head-first (sometimes literally) through the forcefield between the second round and the conference final, the Caps finally found the weak point and got into the back half of the journey toward the Cup. Good for them, Ovie certainly deserves it. Seems a shame it doesn’t look like it’s going to be a very long stay, because they’re going to find an unholy machine waiting for them.

Goalies: Before this whole thing started, we said it might be better for Braden Holtby, who’s not ever really been a playoff dog except for last season, to come in and be the white knight to bail out Barry Trotz and the Caps after trying Phillip Grubauer in the first two games against the Jackets. That didn’t work, this did work, and now Holtby is playing awfully well. He only gave up 13 goals in the six games against the Pens, but then again he wasn’t asked to do all that much. The Caps only gave up more than 25 shots twice in six games, and that’s just about the best they can do. Holtby isn’t going to have a full-out meltdown with that kind of workload, but sadly that workload is probably going to get a whole lot heavier in this round.

You could say Vasilevskiy has had even less to do. He only had to face one player in the first round in Taylor Hall. He only had to face one line in the second round against the Bruins, and after Game 1 he gave up only seven goals in their four wins. He only saw over 30 shots once in those four wins, but the Lightning can probably hold the Caps to the same kind of output which certainly isn’t the case vice versa. Neither Holtby or Vasilevskiy have been here before so we have no idea how they’ll react. When this is all over, I doubt it’ll be because of either goalie primarily.

Defense: The Caps defense in the second round was basically what it was all season. John Carlson scores a ton on the power play, some at evens, and then they kind of turtle well enough to keep the other side from tearing the walls down. Orlov and Niskanen have been more than just useful, and basically nullified Crosby and Guentzel when the last series got decided. They’ll get the Stamkos and Kucherov assignment you’d think as often as possible, and based on how the last series ended the Caps are probably going to send their stall out to help them as much as possible with a trapping style that’s going to make you really understand Ibsen and welcome the void into your life.

I’m still not totally convinced by the Lightning’s defense, but because it hasn’t been seriously tested, and the Caps are likely to play this very conservatively, I don’t know that I have to be. Hedman might be enough, and will see plenty of Ovechkin with McDonagh you would think. Or if they wanted to play a funny joke they could throw McDonagh and Girardi at Ovie’s line just like the Rangers did and it always seemed to work even though everything tells you it shouldn’t. Also, Dan Girardi sucks. Anton Stralman isn’t much better these days as he gets older, but he’s enough. What the Bolts do have that the Caps don’t is a young, third-pairing bum-slayer in Mikhail Sergachev who has run wild most of these playoffs. That is when he’s played which really has been barely at all. Cooper needs to let this guy off the hook because the Caps will not have an answer and they’re probably going to need all the neutral zone busters they can find as the Caps dig trenches and set up barbed wire there.

Forwards: Even if the Caps were fully healthy, this is where the Lightning have the biggest advantage. And Backstrom and Burakovsky are not healthy. If they could not make the bell for an elimination game against the Penguins, only Washington’s Sisyphusian boulder they finally got up the hill, you have to imagine they’re really hurt. They’ll suit up at some point in this series, though Backstrom’s status for Game 1 is up in the air. Without him, this team is really just one line, and we saw what the Bolts did to a one-line team the last round. Lars Eller is great and all but he’s not enough. Especially when Tom Wilson is assuredly going to give away a couple dumbass power plays to the Lightning by trying to eat someone’s face in a bid to one-up Marchand or something.

We derided Swingin’ Jon Cooper’s choice to send Brayden Point and Palat and Johnson out against Boston’s main threat after Game 1. They spent the rest of the series giving that line a swirly. That goes with Stamkos and Kucherov and Miller (who’s been great) on the top line. Killorn and Gourde are a very decent third line. Basically, the Lightning are two to three times deeper than the Caps, and there just isn’t much they can do about it.

Prediction: The Caps have to gum this up as much as possible. They cannot run with the Lightning in any fashion. They don’t have the depth at forward. They’ll get outscored. So they’ll have to make everything 2-1 and hope Holtby goes nuclear or Vasilevskiy goes blind. They’re counting on Ovechkin or Oshie getting really hot, but if neither do they just don’t have the goals. The Lightning have the guns and they have the numbers. Crash before my eyes…Lightning in 5. 

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My…-FFUD’s Player Reviews: Vinnie Smalls Or The Secret Weapon?

By Sam Fels 1668 0

I haven’t made much of a secret about what I think Vinnie Hinostroza is and what he could be. There’s more here than we’ve seen, and I fear there’s more than even the team thinks. Let’s tease it out here.

Vinnie Hinostroza

50 games, 7 goals, 18 assists, 25 points, 10 PIM, +5

53.7 CF%, -1.53 CF% rel, 53.7 xGF%, +5.39 xGF% rel

Yeah, so on the surface, 25 points in 50 games is certainly a decent contribution. Even you can do the math to see that works out to 41 points over 82 games, which you’d take from a bottom-sixer in a goddamn heartbeat. And maybe that’s all he is. And that’s ok. You need contributing third and fourth liners to be good, and Vinnie can give you that.

Except…

There was a point this season, when Hinostroza was getting to run with Schmaltz and Kane or on the top six in general, that he was top-20 in the league in terms of attempts he took and chances he got himself. Vinnie Hinostroza was one of the best individual chance creators in the league. His problem is that he didn’t bury enough of them, as his 8.1 SH% and only seven goals kind of make clear. And that might be it for him, because he wasn’t a big goal-scorer at Notre Dame and his best year in the AHL saw 18 goals in 66 games.

Still, looking at his WOWYs, when Hinostroza skated with Saad and Toews they ran up a 60+ CF%, and a 57% scoring-chance percentage. That’s the best mark any winger managed with those two. He and Schmaltz ran a 52% mark in both as well.

This doesn’t mean that Vinnie Hinostroza should be on Toews’s line all next year and never moved. What I think it does say is that he’s a winger you can play anywhere in the lineup and get something from him. He can certainly get you out of a game or five in the top six. And there might be more there. His speed alone causes problems. He can get in on a forecheck, not by hitting people or being all that strong on the wall, but by simply making d-men play faster than they want to. He causes turnovers. He opens space by just zipping around. This is how things work in the NHL now.

Again, like other players, how the Hawks view Hinostroza going forward will say a lot about how they’re going to build this team going forward.

Outlook: I’m not going to claim that Hinostroza can be Jake Guenztel. The Hawks don’t have a Crosby to make him one anyway. But he’s got tools to be on the top six and if you have the rest of it set, he can be a real weapon. It depends what the Hawks want to be.

I’m afraid they see how small he is and think he can only be a penalty-killing gnat on the fourth line who they just let loose for 10-12 minutes per game. And keeping him on the bottom six is fine, especially if you have four wingers that are clearly better which the Hawks probably should. It would be even more pleasing if he’s on a third line on a team that’s decided it’s just going to pack as much speed as possible into the lineup and play as if their balls are being lightly singed for 60 minutes. Not as a checking forward, but just as a third line that’s trying to skate by you until you puke. This is what the Hawks should be doing, it’s what more and more teams are going to do, and Hinostroza is a piece that can do that.

I’d be a touch surprised if Vinnie Smalls ever got to 20 goals. He’d need to improve his shooting markedly, but that’s been done before. What he doesn’t have to improve is getting into the right spots, because he already does. The fear is that he can get buried in his own zone, which we saw at times with him and Schmaltz when they played together. But as the league gets smaller and faster, and it will, that’s less and less of a problem. And with his speed the other way he certainly keeps d-men from pinching too low.

There’s more here. I hope the Hawks and Vinnie see it.

Everything Else

You Get What Anyone Gets: Saying Goodbye To The Pittsburgh Penguins

By Sam Fels 1882 0

All good things…

…or whatever this Pittsburgh Penguins thing was the past three seasons.

I don’t know what the final epitaph for this era of Penguins hockey should or will read. When you repeat as Cup champs you automatically walk amongst the giants of the past. It’s only been done nine times, to repeat as champs, since the ’67 expansion. And only the Penguins themselves and the Red Wings had done it in the past 30 years. So your favorite Roethlisberger-defender in your office decked out in his James Harrison jersey in July (they’ll still wear it, don’t let them fool you) is going to point to that no matter what you say.

And yet the entire time you couldn’t help but ask yourself…was this Penguins team that good?

While Florida is mostly to blame, the Penguins have their hand in this Vegas nonsense as well. Though really, it’s the fault of the rest of the league being categorically stupid. Because if two standard-thinkers like George “Right Cross” McPhee and Gerard “Shawn Burr Had More Skill Than I Did” Gallant could see the Penguins merely getting up the ice as fast as possible to get away from shot-blockers and think, “Hey we can do that and most of this league will be too stupid/drunk when we play them to do anything about it!,” why didn’t everyone else?

Perhaps mostly it’s just an indictment on Dan Bylsma, who had the same talent and just kept balloon-handing his way into first and second round exits. When you have two of the best five centers in the league, the 2nd round is basically your floor.

Either way, the Penguins were able to catch the rest of the league flat-footed when the cap flattened out, and merely played with a “Get The Fuck Up There” mentality that worked against teams that were still focused on getting defensemen who farted a lot. Seriously, they saw Roman Polak in a Final. On a team that TRADED for Roman Polak. I guess it’s something when you can look at your limited team, see a more limited league, and think, “Play faster?” And it works.

It was always a delicate balance. At some point a team was going to get a good goalie performance against them and Matt Murray wasn’t going to be able to channel the lovechild of Achilles and Aragorn. Especially when you go charging up the ice with Olli Maatta’s vacant gape out there. Hey Justin Schultz, you know your partner blows, right? Might want to dial it in a touch. And while you’re at it, get Letang a map.

But it seemed to be that way all series. Penguins fans will tell you Kris Letang is one of the best in the league, and one of these days he just might play like it! And no, trying to disembowel various Flyers, as enjoyable as that might be, doesn’t count. I look forward next year to the continuation of the competition between Phil Kessel and PK Subban as to who can swell more while still being productive. We’re about two years away from Kessel reenacting the post-credits scene to Dodgeball. “Fatty Made A Funny!” And he’ll still pour in 25 goals. Let’s just start calling him “Bartolo” now.

This is probably better than the Pens deserved, after all. They reacted to their consecutive Cups built on speed and more speed by trading a first round pick for Purina Factory resident/superintendent Ryan Reaves. Whom they discarded months later. Jim Rutherford has two rings. The NHL is just one accident after another. It’s like if you made a sports league out of that ball hitting Canseco in the head and going for a homer 10 times a night for eight months.

That’s the takeaway from these Pens teams, basically and indictment of the league. When people ask you about them years from now your reaction is basically going to be, “They were fine, I think?” They’re hockey’s answer to the San Francisco Giants. Multiple championship won by a team mostly made up of “guys” thanks to a league/playoff system that spits out silly results as a function. They were there, they stood upright long enough for everyone else to fall down around them, and then they’re the only ones left to hand a trophy to. Except in the NHL, pretty much everyone is Mike Matheny.

Much like other teams that reigned for a while, the Pens will be brought down by teams doing what they did. The architecture of your destruction is always within the architecture of your success. More and more teams, you hope, are going to play faster and in space and try and get thing done before a team can set up defensively. And attacking Maatta, Schultz, Oleksiak, and Ruhwedel with speed more consistently is going to lead to a lot of Iron City being spilled and thrown. Which is exactly what you should do with that swill. Though in all honesty, it’s no worse or better than Yeungling which we all spent our 20s spraying our shorts over and then you grow up and realize it’s not even Coors Banquet.

I suppose we should thank the Penguins. It’ll be a more entertaining league as more teams take their cues from them. But fuck that. 1992 scars still haven’t healed, and Lemieux is a fuckstick. No woman will ever mean as much to me as the night Darius Kasparitis punched him in the face.

So take your baubles and go, Pens.

 

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews – Brandon Saad or Sometimes the Bear Eats You

By John Pullega 2409 0

Brandon Saad’s year was an extended cut of Lisa explaining why the electric violinist was better than she seemed. You had to look at the stats Saad WASN’T underwhelming at to appreciate his year. But when the whole point of bringing the guy back was to give Toews more support and even shoot for a 30-goal season, it makes the My Chemical Romance-ian angst over losing Panarin for him more understandable (even though it’s misplaced).

Brandon Saad

82 GP, 18 Goals, 17 Assists, 35 Points, -10, 14 PIM

56.7 CF% (Evens), 5.7 CF% Rel (Evens), 54.93 SCF% (5v5), 52.15 xGF% (5v5), 3.63 xGF% Rel (5v5)

 60.2% oZ Start (Evens)

What We Said: While I can see a 30-30-60 year from him, expecting 70–80 points might be asking a bit much . . . Having him out with Toews could bring about a renaissance for The Captain . . . His all-around game is a welcome aspect for a team that lost one of the greatest back-checkers of all time, and should help re-establish the Hawks as a strong possession team.

What We Got: Saad had a year of unexpected firsts. It was the first time that he finished with a negative goal differential. It was the first time he finished with a shooting percentage under 10%. It was the first time he finished the year with fewer points than the last. By their powers combined, these aspects turned what was supposed to be the rekindling of our love affair with Hossa Jr. into a season of grumbling and disappointment. And as painful as it is to admit, by the metrics that matter most—namely, goals and points—this was a massively disappointing year for Saad.

We can go on about how Saad had his best possession year since 2013–14 (in which he had a 58.5 CF% in 78 games). We can talk about how Saad’s CF% Rel this year was his best ever in a Hawks sweater (trailing only last year’s 6.4 in Columbus). And you know I want to tell you how all of his problems were anomalous, the result of a precipitous and unforeseen drop in his shooting percentage. (If he had shot at his 11.8 S% average he had prior to this year, he would have had 28 goals this year.)

But with Saad coming off three consecutive 50+ point seasons, that all looks like a bunch of excuses for a poor performance or a stubborn justification for trading Panarin, even though it isn’t. All those numbers bolster the “Saad is still a great player” argument, but they don’t explain why his shooting percentage was down so much.

If you go back and watch some of Saad’s scoring opportunities, you’ll notice that there seems to be about a half-second delay between when you’d expect him to shoot and when he actually took his shot. I don’t know whether this hesitation is a matter of confidence, timing, or simply losing a little bit off his fastball, but it was more noticeable this year than ever before. Rather than puckering your sphincter for what you’d assume would be a scorching one-timer, most times Saad had a good scoring chance, you’d find your shoulders slouchier than usual and your gut hanging over your jeans just a little bit more woefully, knowing that if he didn’t launch the puck straight into the goaltender’s chest, it was going to go a little too high or a little too wide.

Not knowing why is the hardest thing to process. As unfulfilling as it is to read what amounts to a shoulder shrug and a “what can you do,” it looks more like a season-long malaise than some underlying problem, given Saad’s body of work over the last five years. Everything else looked as good or better than expected, except, ironically, for his play with Toews.

While the Saad–Toews tandem was by no means bad, bringing Saad back didn’t have the effect we had hoped. In the 750 minutes they played together at 5v5, they were a possession monster, with a 57+ CF% and a 52+ High-Danger Chances For Percentage (HDCF%).

But they also got pummeled in High-Danger Goals For Percentage (HDGF%), to the tune of 42+. Away from Saad, Toews sported a throbbing 61+ HDGF%. Away from Toews, Saad had a flaccid 38.89 HDGF%.

Additionally, both Saad and Toews had better—albeit below their average—on-ice shooting percentages away from each other: Together, they had a 6.41%; Saad without Toews had a 7.39% (7.6% individual on the year); and Toews without Saad had an 8.62% (9.5% individual on the year).

All of this is to say what we’ve been saying all year: The chances were there for Saad, and they just didn’t go in. Unless you buy the idea that Saad peaked at 24 (and if you do, go back to work, Peter Chiarelli), there’s no explanation for it other than sometimes the bear just eats you.

Where We Go From Here: Saad was an offensive disappointment, but he did everything else as good or better than before. And if Crawford stays healthy, maybe we’re sitting here talking about how Saad overcame his scoring demons in the playoffs and laughing about how stupid hockey can be. Instead, after an underwhelming year from both the team and the man, we’re subject to asinine chatter about trading Brandon Saad (for what, who knows?). Anyone who tries to sell you that tripe is probably a good candidate for the ol’ Moe Szyslak fork in the eye, given Saad’s career trajectory to this point.

Saad will be 26 next year, right in his prime. He’s still a possession dynamo with outrageous transition speed for a skater his size. And if he produced at just his career rates, he would have had the best offensive season of his career this year. Saad is still young, still important, and still capable of being everything we hoped he would. He just seemed a little hesitant this year. It could just be that Saad–Toews needs a finisher—whether that’s Kane, DeBrincat, or potentially Vinnie—to complete that line. And I can hear the “DAT SOUNDS LIKE ARTEMI PANARIN IF YOU ASK ME” snark a mile away, but when it comes down to it, I’ll take a younger, more well-rounded Saad at $6 million than an $8–10 million sniper like Panarin, if I have to choose one.

Still, Saad will need to prove, for the first time in his career, that this year was a blip for his offensive output. Bowman said he was good for it, and it’s down there somewhere. Let’s let him take another look.

Everything Else

You Get What Anyone Gets: Saying Goodbye To The San Jose Sharks

By Sam Fels 2187 0

Some of these are easy. And then some of them, like this one about the Sharks, you feel this way…

Because really, what do you think of when you think of the Sharks now? Their games are always on the latest, their jerseys aren’t even that cool anymore, the broadcast has finally given up on trying to claim The Tank is the loudest building in the league (it’s filled with Silicon Valley residents, so how could it be? If you want noise from them try and actually talk to someone on their favorite coffee shop instead of making sure everyone sees you writing on your tablet), and Joe Thornton is old. They play in perhaps the shittiest division in the four major sports, one that let an expansion team run right over it, and they’re just kind of there, like that one shop or business in your neighborhood that you never see anyone go into and yet never closes. Are the Sharks a mob front? Might explain the bail bonds ads behind the bench.

The Sharks, for perhaps the fifth or sixth season in a row, we’re able to just Dead Sea float their way into a comfortable playoff spot without really doing anything. Every year they’re just smart enough to let the irretrievably dumb teams sink past them while an extraordinarily lucky team goes on to win the division. The Sharks haven’t won the Pacific, in whatever form, since 2011. And more over, it hasn’t mattered a fucking jot that they haven’t. You couldn’t name the teams that did win the division in those years, because they never went fucking anywhere. Probably because it’s always the godforsaken Ducks, and we know what a waste of time that is.

The Sharks came into this season with a unique strategy. They wanted to bring both Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton back, but when Marleau decided to high-tail it for the far more annoying but interesting Leafs, they just took all the money allotted for both and handed it to Thornton. At age 37. “Shit…well, we don’t know what to do with this now so here, you take it!” Maybe the Sharks could have used another d-man…or a d-man, who could actually move? Y’know, to replace the fossilized Paul Martin? Maybe another winger who isn’t a raging scumbag like Evander Kane? Just a thought.

The Sharks did that thing they do every year, sometimes in the fall but sometimes in the spring, where they rip off a winning streak, causing everyone to say, “Oh fuck, that’s right, they exist!” And then we go back about or day and lives, because we know that they’ll lose in the second round before anyone has a chance to really discover a flying fuck about them. What’s your most memorable Shark playoff memory? Losing four in a row to the Kings, right? Maybe Duncan Keith’s teeth? Do you remember they were in the Final two years ago? Of course you don’t. If somehow you do, and you don’t, do you remember anything that happened in the Final? Nope, you don’t. You were watching the Cubs.

That’s the Sharks. You know they’ve played 82 games, and you know they’re in the playoffs, and then when it’s over basically all it is is a record on HockeyReference.com. They exist on paper and nowhere else.

They are rumored to be the likeliest destination for John Tavares, a man determined to play out the rest of his career in the biggest set of shadows possible. Long Island was ok, but Brooklyn definitely wasn’t, so let’s head to like the fifth or sixth desirable location in the Bay Area to live out the rest of his days. If the Sharks ever moved to Oakland he’d demand a trade to Arizona. Or Bolivia.

There he can find a team where everyone who matters is over 30 and been rumored to be leaving or traded for at least five years. And it turns out Brent Burns is just a bearded, better clothed Dustin Byfuglien, as neither has any idea what they’re doing when they’re not shooting the puck. Joe Thornton now has no knees, probably crumbling under the weight of his gross fucking beard, and is still going to eat up most of their cap space to get them 50 assists that won’t matter in the least. Joe Pavelski and Logan Couture will each get their 25+ goals, and then in the spring will turn to each other and ask, “Why did we even bother?” They’ll continue to call up players with ridiculous fucking names like Joonas and Barclay and Timo because it’s tradition at this point, and then for the next five years you’ll hear Sharks fans (you won’t because you don’t know any and if you do you’ve definitely thought about burying a stapler into their nasal passage) “Man, if Ryker or Antenna or Prius can develop into a 30-goal scorer…” And then they never do and then end up in Colorado or Vancouver simply because someone had to.

The Sharks might be the least interesting team in any sport in that place. The A’s at least changed the whole way all of baseball was run. The Warriors might be the best team ever. The Niners are either hilariously bad or now promising with an actual QB and nothing in between. The Raiders are leaving. The Giants have the best park in the league. The Sharks…have that sharks’ head? Yeah, I don’t know either.

Let’s put it this way, the Sharks were the last team to make Ryan Getzlaf look like a force in the playoffs. And that was 10 years ago. That was their window, and they fucking blew it to Ryan Getzlaf. Perhaps this is exactly what they deserve for the next three decades.

So long, San Jose. You definitely completed the schedule.

 

 

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat the Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s Player Reviews: Jonathan Toews or Time To Eat Meat Again

By Adam Hess 4262 0

For the second straight season, it felt like we watched Jonathan Toews go through a year in which he played very well, had solid underlying numbers, and yet due to voodoo or bad luck or the lack of lean meat in his diet he couldn’t find the score sheet. The hilarious part is he still put up 20 goals and 52 points in 74 games, which is still pretty damn good. But his paycheck and role demand more, and his play deserved it. Shall we?

Jonathan Toews

74 games, 20 goals, 32 assists, 52 points, -1, 47 PIM

56.14 CF%, 4.79 CF% rel, 53.09 xGF%, 4.19 xGF% rel, 55.15 Zone Start Ratio

I think there’s a lot of value in bookending the preview/review process with players as a writer, which is why I wanted to do this review for Toews after doing the preview earlier this year. Honestly, before looking into any of his numbers, I went back and read said player preview. That presented me with a problem – I, uh, think I might end up repeating myself from that post a lot.

That’s because, like I said to open this one, Toews had another year comparable to his 2016-17 campaign. He had elite shot metrics with that 56.14 CF, the expected goals was nicely in his favor as well at 53.09, and yet a career low shooting percentage drives the production numbers down. Compare those expected goals to his actual GF% of 50.57 and it gives you an even better scope of just how bad his luck was. Spending damn near the entire year with Brandon Saad, who was going through the same damn thing (TEASER: review coming tomorrow from Mr. Pullega), didn’t really help matters.

Let’s play a projection game. After shooting 9.5% this year, his first time below 10% in his career, Jonathan Toews’ career shooting percentage has now dropped to 14.1 percent. If he simply shot that rate this year, he’d have scored 10 more goals. 62 point year in 74 games. That’s good.

Before these last two years, Toews was shooting 15.1% on his career – and while a one percent drop probably doesn’t strike you as huge, to drop a goal per 100 shots after just two seasons is kind of insane. If Toews had shot at 15.1% this year, he has 32 goals. Again, good.

And again Brandon Saad’s career low shooting year definitely impacted Toews as well, likely on the assist side of the ledger. I won’t dig too much into the numbers so as not to steal Pullega’s thunder for tomorrow, but if Saad shot his career rate this year, I bet Toews added anywhere from 2-8 assists to his ledger as well.

So the ultra-optimistic side of this projection game puts Toews at 32 goals and 40 assists, and if you play slightly more conservative you have him at 30 and 32. Either way, you’re looking at somewhere in the 65-70 point range in 74 games played. That is damn near elite production in today’s NHL. “But Twitter told me the sky is falling on Jonathan Toews,” you say! Twitter is wrong. It is always wrong.

A while back I compared Toews to Anze Kopitar, and that comparison is still apt. Kopitar had a much worse 2016-17 than Toews in the luck department, but things swung his way in 2017-18 and he ended up with career highs in shooting percentage, goals, and points, and all of that earned him a Hart trophy nomination and he just might win the damn thing even though it should go to Nathan MacKinnon. But here’s the most encouraging part of Kopitar’s huge year as far as it applies to Toews – his combined shooting percentage from last year with a career low shooting percentage, and this year with the career high, sit right in line with his career numbers and his typical fluctuation of his career.

Obviously there are flaws to some of this numerology I’m doing, but the over-arching point is that things aren’t all bad for Toews unless there is more to this whole thing than shooting percentage. The overall numbers don’t indicate that there is, though, meaning that unless there is some lingering injury that is somehow leading to the decline in shot conversion, everything we know about numbers and regression indicates that Captain Vegan is due for a correction.

And if all else fails, maybe he should start eating steak again. How the fuck could anyone give up steak?