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Game #24 – Hawks vs. Panthers Preview: It’s a Tired Bus Station and an Old Pair of Shoes

By John Pullega 2596 0

  vs.

RECORDS: Panthers 8-9-3   Hawks 8-10-5

PUCK DROP: 6:00 p.m. Central

TV: NBCSCH

Lift and Sift: Panther Parkway, Litter Box Cats

If all you ever read were press releases and interviews with front offices in denial, tonight’s tilt between the Panthers and Hawks would be as must-see as a hockey game at six o’clock on the Saturday after Thanksgiving could possibly be. We’ve gone over the tipped-over porta-potty that is John McDonough’s “remodel, not rebuild” philosophy for the Hawks, and the Panthers seem to find themselves in a similar mind-set for different reasons.

Since that 103-point campaign and first-round playoff loss in 2015–16, the Cats have missed the playoffs twice, though last year was by the skin of their ass. Yet, you can’t help but wonder what this Panthers team would look like if they hadn’t gone Biff Tannen and replaced their analytically minded front office with HOCKEY MEN. This year has been even worse than expected for the Panthers, and after a 2-4 road trip, they return home to host the Hawks much worse for wear.

In the crease, the Panthers made the superb decision to entrust 39-year-old Roberto Luongo with the bulk of the starting responsibilities. Bobby Lu has been hurt a lot more than not, but even when he’s been healthy, he’s been wildly inconsistent. In his first four games back from his opening-night knee injury, Luongo posted a sparkling .951 SV%. He then followed that up with a .826 over the next four, good for a .902 overall. Not great, Bob.

And he hurt himself again last night, leaving James Reimer in charge of the crease. James Reimer is not someone you want in charge of the crease if you have playoff aspirations. While his .920 at evens is good, Reimer has gotten hosed on the PK to the tune of .791. The Panthers have given up the sixth-most goals on the PK despite playing the least amount of PK time in the league this year.

On the forward lines, there’s some on-paper potential for the Panthers that can never seem to get over the hump. After brain genius Dale Tallon cut Jonathan Marchessault loose for literally nothing last year, he had to go out and find himself a new scorer in Mike Hoffman. Despite the high school drama that brought him to Florida, Hoffman has been the Panthers’s most consistent offensive weapon, with 20 points on the year (10 G, 10 A) through 20 games and a recently ended 17-game point streak. He, Aleksander Barkov, and Evgenii Dadonov round out a formidable top line despite their lack of possession as a unit (48+ CF% together).

After that top line, things start to get dicey. The Panthers lost the well-rounded Vincent Trocheck earlier in the week after his ankle took the road less traveled. Trocheck did a bit of everything for the Cats and played consistently on both the PP and PK in his 18 games. That leaves you with a second line of Nick Bjugstad, the talented Jonathan Huberdeau, and, fuck, Denis Malgin? Frank Vatrano? Any of these names doing anything for you?

After that is a veritable who’s-who of what ifs, maybes, and retreads. Jared McCann has a ton of two-way potential, but tends to defer. He might end up tossed onto the second line to fill in for Trocheck at some point. Troy Brouwer plays on this team. The fourth line includes the name-generated Dryden Hunt and Colton Sceviour, who are both fine and perfectly suited where they are, but don’t really provide the much-needed scoring Florida lacks beyond the top line.

The Cats’s blue line hinges on Aaron Ekblad, who turns the ice at a 53+ CF% despite a 47+% oZ start rate. He’s done it primarily next to Mike Matheson, who after a slow and plodding start to the first year of his eight-year, $39 million contract has turned up his offensive contributions, with five points in his last five games (all assists). Still, Keith Yandle takes the mantle as the Cats’s most offensive D-man, with 19 points over 20 games. After that, you’ve got Alex Petrovic—who is definitely “a guy,”—fucking Bogdan Kiselevich, something called Mark Pysyk, and young MacKenzie Weegar, who looks exactly how you’d imagine a guy named “MacKenzie Weegar” would. That’s a whole lot of #6 D-men spread across that blue line.

For the Men of Four Feathers, Colliton ought to consider kicking his Marlboro 72 habit before New Year’s, because Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook have looked like dogshit together. Though there’s not much to work with on the blue line—remember when Brandon Manning was StanBo’s BIG DEFENSIVE SIGNING?—the one thing that seemed to work best was Keith–Jokiharju. Keith might not want to play mentor, but too fucking bad. Henri Jokiharju the best thing they have, so Colliton needs to put the kibosh on his “We’re sitting him for his development” bit and let him breathe. Erik Gustafsson’s spurs have been jingling and jangling far too often, Gustav Forsling still looks lost in this own zone, and Jan Rutta blows. So fuck, I don’t know, 2–28, 56–7, 42–44? Somehow, it looks even worse when you write it down.

You probably won’t see too many changes up front, though we probably should. Brandon Saad–Jonathan Toews–Patrick Kane sounds nice, but the chorus we’ve been singing is “If they aren’t dominating, split them up,” and after last night, it would be hard to describe them as dominant. We’re still waiting to see 12–8–88 at some point, and what better time than tonight? The Fortin–Kampf–Kahun line is at least fast, but you’re tempted to see Anisimov centering it and just having Fortin and Kahun aim for him instead of the net. Suckbag Johnson, Chris Kunitz, Andreas Martinsen, or John Hayden will round it out on the fourth line because someone has to.

You figure Cam Ward gets the nod tonight after Corey Crawford chose to finish out last night’s game rather than sit after the first.

With the Blackhawks in the denial stage and the Panthers teetering toward anger, this game will be a case study in grief. With Reimer in net and Trocheck out, the Panthers look eminently beatable if the Hawks can shut down their top line.

Let’s go Hawks.

Game #24 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #24 – Hawks vs. Panthers Spotlight: Sasha Barkov Might Be The Boss, Too

By Sam Fels 1816 0

You’d be forgiven for not knowing that Aleksander Barkov is one of the best young centers in the league. You’d also be forgiven that if you knew that you didn’t realize he’s still only 22-years-old. He’s in his sixth season already, and is anchoring this Panthers team which a lot of people still think will eventually surprise in the Atlantic Division (though people think a lot of things). It’s not his fault he’s toiled away in Sunrise, which is basically the witness protection program for NHL players. Barkov has gotten to play in only six playoff games in his five previous seasons, and it’s hard to carve your name out for the masses when that’s the case.

He’s a name you should know. Barkov’s 79 points last year and 25th-place finish in scoring might not seem like it’s all that impressive for a #1 center. But you have to look a little deeper than that to see what was actually going on.

Barkov, and his linemate Evgenii Dadanov, and a cast of thousands on the other side, were used as much as a checking line as a scoring line. And not just like a secondary checking line along with a third or fourth unit that did the real mine-sweeping. Barkov started less than 40% of his shifts in the offensive zone. His quality-of-competition was top-20 in the league. And yet he was still able to put a point-per-game, while also managing a possession-share over 3.5% higher than the rate of his team when he wasn’t on the ice. That was the second year in a row he’d been well above the team-rate, as he went +5.2% in that campaign.

Of the top-35 players in terms of relative-Corsi last season, none had a lower percentage of shifts start in the offensive zone than Barkov. Of the top-25 scorers, only Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak had zone starts anything like Barkov did, and they got to run with Patrice Bergeron. Perhaps Barkov is the new Bergeron? The new, Finnish Bergeron?

The Panthers seem to want to lessen that burden this season. Barkov has seen his defensive-zone starts drop from 60% last year to 51% this year, as Vincent Trocheck was taking up more of that responsibility. But now that his leg is in cubist form, it may land on Barkov to take that role back. Which will probably keep him from putting up the 90+ points that would get anyone to notice a Panther for awards such as the Hart or Selke.

Still, Barkov is trucking along at a point-per-game again, with 18 in 19 games at the time of writing. He’s also got a full-time left-winger now in Mike Hoffman, who he has helped elevate to the team’s leading scorer and on pace for a career-high in goals and shooting-percentage. Hoffman is getting more shots and more good chances (in terms if individual expected goals) on Barkov’s wing than he ever did in Ottawa. He’s averaging less shot-attempts as well, which lets you know that he’s getting the puck in better areas with the improvements in shots on goal and chances. That’s all on Barkov.

Which makes Barkov’s contract a real boon for the Panthers. He’s on a matching $5.9M hit with Jonathan Huberdeau for the next three seasons after this one (Huberdeau has four). The Cats don’t have a lot of raises to dole out in the coming years, but with Barkov such a bargain it would behoove them to make the most out of the next three years before he becomes one of the more coveted free agents in recent memory.

And maybe by then, people will actually know his name.

 

Game #24 Preview Suite

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Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #24 – Hawks vs. Panthers Q&A: Frank Rekas

By Sam Fels 1555 0

Frank Rekas has been our Cats guy for as long as we can remember (which admittedly is only a few days). You can follow him @FrankRekas. 

The Panthers started out the season rough, but seem to have turned it around. What was the problem earlier?  

In typical Florida Panther tradition, the season started slowly. As it always does. Last year took the Florida Panthers approximately 30 games to figure things out under a new coach, with a new system.  The second half finish was tremendous and most thought that it would just naturally continue into this season. Knowing that another slow start couldn’t happen, they did just that.  First of all, no one could have predicted the freak leg injury to the ageless wonder, goaltender Roberto Luongo that occurred in the season opener. We all know a team plays differently depending on who’s in net, and the Panthers are no stranger to that. The play of James Reimer and Michael Hutchinson was below average to poor depending on the night. The inability to make a key save, or steal a game was missing. While there weren’t many games that the Panthers were blown out of, one of the goaltenders needed to find a way to make that “key” stop. Additionally, playing a full 60 minutes was also a trouble spot. Specifically the Panthers had issues with the second period.  For whatever reason the middle frame saw them become lethargic, mistake prone, and defensively erratic. Taking poor penalties at inopportune times  and defensive mistakes led to the downfall of games during the middle frame. It’s kind of funny in a way that it took a 39 year old goaltender to return from injury to get things back on track.
Evgenii Dadanov and his extraneous I might be the quietest player to be averaging over a point per game. How good is he?  
In his second tour of duty with the Panthers after playing in the KHL for 5 years, Dadonov has come back more rejuvenated, and skilled and fun to watch than anyone could have imagined. He was a huge question mark when Dale Tallon signed him prior to last season as a free agent. But as Tallon often does, this signing earned Dale a gold star. “Daddy,” as Panther faithful often refer to him as, has been nothing short of brilliant.  He’s not afraid to shoot, plays with energy and passion, and scores goals that count at the right time.  He’s been one of the Panthers most consistent players in the past two seasons, and is averaging almost a point per game so far this year. 22 of his 28 goals last season came 5×5, and 7 of 9 have been scored that way this season. He finds the right areas to be in, and never seems to take a shift off.  His consistency is a breathe of fresh air. No reason he can’t keep that pace up playing with Aleksander Barkov and Mike Hoffman.
First impressions of Mike Hoffman? 
My first impressions of Mike Hoffman when he was playing for Ottawa were, if the Panthers (or Hawks for that matter) ever had a chance to get him, they should as he caught my eye a while ago. That being said in another “kidnapping” by Tallon, Hoffman arrived with a background as a player that has skill, a dandy wrister, and a goal scorers mentality. So far, he has not disappointed. He loves to shoot, and on this team that’s a great sign because there are a few players who aren’t as “selfish”.  He got off to a bit of a slow start, and at one point saw himself on the 4th line. But that’s old news now, and as I prepare this on Tuesday night, Hoffman has put together a 1- game point streak. Not at all surprising for a guy that’s known as a goal scorer. He’s displayed a nasty shot on a few occasions, and that’s what this team has needed for years. When the puck touches his stick it has a pretty good chance of getting on net, and possibly going in. He’s going to be huge part of the success of the Panthers, and now that he’s on the top line, his numbers could become even better.
 Nick Bjugstad seemed to have something of a breakout year last year. Is he a full-time winger now?

Now that center Vincent Trochek has had an unfortunate leg injury, it would have appeared that Nick Bjugstad would have gone back to centering the second line. Surprise as that’s not the case at least in the game against Tampa on Tuesday night as “Big Nick” as some like to call him was on the wing with Jared McCann getting promoted to take Trochek’s place. Center is Nick’s natural position and he’s performed rather well there in the past, especially during the 2014-2015 season. But a back injury and concussion derailed his progress. Until last season, when the Bob Boughner line blender was looking for the right combination, found that putting Nick on the wing with Aleksander Barkov and Evgenii Dadonov seemed to be the perfect recipe. Bjugstad produced his best season to date playing the wing, and was extremely effective in his role. There are some questions though that seem to linger. Does he have a higher gear? Can he or why doesn’t he use his big body more? He has a good shot, but it’s not accurate at times.  Why?  The subject of trade rumors during the past two offseasons, Nick is a player that he Panthers believe in, and are hoping that he reaches his potential. One of the most likable players on the team, Bjugstad is talented, and is someone that everyone roots for.  It’s up to him now, as he is being given a chance to prove how good he can be.  And with Trochek out for an extended period of time, Nick is on the list of players that bigger things will be expected from.

Game #24 Preview Suite

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Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

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Game #24 – Hawks vs. Panthers Douchebag Du Jour: Are You Dumb Bastards Listening to Me, You Dumb Bastards?

By John Pullega 2144 0

Imagine dating a good hockey player in 2018. Imagine that the good hockey player you’re dating is teammates with a generational talent and face of the franchise for which they both play. Imagine that you, in your own words, “fall out of favour” with that generational player’s wife, based on “noticing fewer likes on Instagram and Facebook.” Imagine going online and anonymously harassing that woman for months, saying that her recently stillborn baby “didn’t have a chance” because she was “popping pain killer medication everyday [sic],” saying you wish this woman were dead, and wishing someone would end her husband’s career. Then imagine that the good hockey player that you’re dating has to be traded not once but twice because of what a gigantic piece of shit you are.

Thus is the story of how Mike Hoffman, a good if not great hockey player, ended up in Florida, a state befitting some of the biggest piles of human garbage America has to offer. We touched on what a sharps-disposal container Ottawa is as a franchise, but the Melinda Karlsson–Monika Caryk debacle probably outpaces everything else.

While 99% of the douchebaggery here comes from Monika Caryk—who, in case you haven’t pieced it together is Mike Hoffman’s now-fiancée—there’s enough shittiness to go around to qualify Hoffman as a douchebag here. To clarify and nutshell this story, here’s what happened:

  • Erik Karlsson’s wife, Melinda, alleged that Monika Caryk, Hoffman’s girlfriend at the time, harassed her and her husband in “over 1,000 negative and derogatory statements” beginning in November 2017, right around the time the Karlssons announced that they were having a baby.
  • The baby was stillborn in March 2018, and someone went online and accused Melinda of abusing painkillers, implying that that’s what caused the stillbirth. Melinda believed that it was Caryk who did it, and applied for a peace bond (basically, a restraining order) against Caryk in May.
  • Caryk and Hoffman denied that they had anything to do with any of it. Hoffman tried showing Erik Karlsson documents (obtained from an “IT contact” Caryk “reached out to”) that supposedly showed Caryk wasn’t making anonymous posts six days after the stillbirth (Karlsson refused to look at them).
  • Caryk was never served the peace bond.

So after all that, Hoffman gets traded to the Sharks, and then the Panthers. All the while, Hoffman goes to bat for his girlfriend, which in a case that seems like “she said she said” would make sense.

But consider the fact that five other wives and one girlfriend of Senators players—Kodette LaBarbera (Jason), Taylor Winnik (Daniel), Hayley Thompson (Mark Stone), Marlee Hammond (Andrew), Camille Pageau (J.G.), and Julie Turris (Kyle)—all shared some iteration of Caryk treating the Karlssons, especially Melinda, like shit. That’s an awful lot of independent accounts sharing a similar story, too many in my book to call this a “she said she said.” Consider too that Caryk has readily admitted to have made “unflattering observations about the Karlssons,” blaming it on her own drunkenness and “others twisting her own words.” My douchebag BINGO card just needs an “It was just a joke.”

But this is the NHL, where talent makes up for any number of character flaws a player might have. And wouldn’t you know it, appropriately named Panthers coach Bob Boughner took the lead in proving once again that the NHL doesn’t give a shit about women if you can score 20 goals, saying:

“All that stuff that happened in Ottawa, I don’t believe half of it.”

Of fucking course you don’t, Bob. Why believe the accounts of up to seven women when you can just sit down with people who have a vested interest in denying what happened because the guy you want on your team might get your wildly disappointing team over the hump?

BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!

“And the other half, I knew it wasn’t going to be an issue. I went down with my wife to Waterloo and took him and his fiancée out for dinner. It was a good meeting. I said to my wife afterwards: ‘They’re good people. They’re really good people.’ You could tell instantly.”

Never mind explaining what made them good people, because we all know that scoring 20 goals and putting up 60 points is what makes a man good in this urinal league.

And you better fucking believe Uncle Dale backed that up, calling Hoffman “a perfect fit” for the team because the Panthers have “a strong culture” and that “We feel that that’s in the past and the distractions.” THAT’S IN THE PAST AND THE DISTRACTIONS! In the most tongue-twisting corporate-speak this side of Bill Lumbergh, Tallon tried to justify trading for a guy who was locker room poison in motherfucking Ottawa, because the absurdity train of the NHL is never, ever fucking late.

Hoffman is a douchebag for haranguing Karlsson about his girlfriend’s innocence six days after his son was stillborn (because that’s foremost on Karlsson’s mind, you see) and supporting his now-fiancée who, by at least five independent accounts from other Senators’s players’ wives, went to extreme lengths to harass a woman who, in Caryk’s own words, stopped liking shit on her Instagram and Facebook.

I have a hard time believing that they would all tell similar stories about Caryk’s shittiness just because. Coupled with the fact that no one has provided an ounce of support for Caryk besides the guy who’s marrying her, it’s hard to disbelieve the douchiness Hoffman and Caryk share.

While the courts have sort of washed their hands of all this, there’s enough evidence here for the court of douchebaggery to warrant consideration for Caryk (for being a piece of shit) and Hoffman (for supporting this piece of shit). But how about that 17-game point streak Mike had for himself?

They’re good people. You could tell instantly.

Game #24 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #23 – I’m Now Huffing Gas and Sniffing Paint to Take Away This Buzz That I Call You – Hawks 2 Lightning 4

By John Pullega 1858 0

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

A really good team played a borderline mediocre team tonight. The Ning put this away early, but there were a few things that weren’t a complete diaper filling tonight. Let’s do it quick, because there’s a $30 handle of Eagle Rare calling my name.

– I’m not sure about this man-to-man defensive scheme. Goals 1 and 3 looked to be the result of the man system breaking up, and both of them occurred with 20-19-88 on the ice. On the first, you had Brandon Saad and Patrick Kane both shadowing Nikita Kucherov on the far boards, leaving the near-board side open. With Toews covering on the left wing, you get Saad positioned too high and Kane positioned too low, giving Tyler Johnson all the time and space in the world between the circles to shelf an easy shot off a Kucherov feed.

On the third goal, it looked like another instance of missed coverage. After Seabrook belched a clearing attempt in the neutral zone, Erik Cernak shouldered in behind the net, dropped an easy pass to Kucherov, who then hit a streaking Brayden Point through the middle. Once again, Saad looked a bit too high between the circles, but Erik Gustafsson having his back to the play was way more emblematic of why I’m not entirely sure about the man-to-man defensive scheme.

– Duncan Keith is turning more and more into a question with no answer. Yes, he and Forsling ended up with a 60+ CF%, but the Ning were up their asses the entire first period. The second goal was a direct result of a Keith turnover in the neutral zone, Keith getting overpowered by Kucherov in his own zone, then a back-and-forth Johnson–Kucherov–Johnson connection, all from a spot where Duncan Keith would have been five years ago. Asking Gustav Forsling to cover for Cowboy Keith is never going to end well, and Johnson’s second goal was a direct result of Forsling dropping to cover for an overpowered and out-of-position Keith. He also had a slashing penalty while the Hawks had possession, which had red ass written all over it.

– My initial reaction is always going to be “defend Erik Gustafsson,” because I’m a goddamn idiot. But tonight was simply a pile of horseshit puked on with a belly full of Malort for Cowboy Gus. Gus got pantsed on the Ning’s fourth goal by Ryan Callahan, who would have a hard time juking a box with a roll of quarters. He and Brent Seabrook were just awful today, finding themselves on the ice for three of the Ning’s four goals.

– Anyone who wants to talk about how Jeremy Colliton is this Great Communicator can take that idea, melt it down into a cylindrical wax, use it as a lip balm, and kiss my entire ass with it. On what fucking planet is it acceptable to scratch your fastest, most talented puck possession defenseman in Henri Jokiharju against a team that Daron-Malakian-lookalike John Cooper has flying into the red night in and night out? Colliton said that this was a part of his development and even had the nuts to allude to Joel Quenneville’s (SKY POINT) elusive MORE that Jokiharju has to give to the team. By all the metrics I could find, Jokiharju has been the Hawks’s most effective defenseman all year and especially lately (at least in terms of possession). If Colliton wants to look like Ben Wyatt, he can knock himself out, but don’t turn Jokiharju into fucking Ice Town.

– The Fortin–Kampf–Kahun line is like chocolate-covered mayonnaise. They’re decent at getting the puck in the zone, but once they’re there, they fumble like they’re trying to plug their dead vape pen into the outlet behind the couch in the dark. Any time they charged the zone, it was only a matter of time before the wheels entirely came off, which was no more obvious than on Fortin’s hilarious broken stick on a breakaway in the first.

– Mike Milbury called Corey Crawford “average” since his return to the Hawks and said he “needed to see the wins and the right numbers.” What a stupid asshole.

Super excited to learn what Jokiharju got to learn as a part of his “development” in the press box tonight. They’ll visit Uncle Dale and the Panthers tomorrow.

Onward. . .

Beer du Jour: Great Divide Fresh Hop in the first and second, Eagle Rare with a High Life back for the third.

Line of the Night: “As part of his development, it’s Jokiharju’s chance to watch and learn.” – One of the national telecast weiners paraphrasing THE GREAT COMMUNICATOR on why Jokiharju was heathy scratched.

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock It – Black Friday Smorgasbord

By Sam Fels 1059 0

First Screen Viewing

Canadiens vs. Sabres – 3pm

Everyone is basically in the pool today, with 15 games on the schedule as the NHL tries to get in on the holiday fun. There’s plenty of matinees for you as well to get a break from shopping or your family or both. The best of the afternoon tilts is probably this one between the two surprise teams in the Atlantic. Pretty soon we’re going to figure out if either are for real. There’s a lot to suggest they both might be, as the Habs aren’t even getting great goaltending from Carey Price and are getting around it. The Sabres have a genuine top line now and Rasmus Dahlin is rushing to be the The Truth pretty soon. With the Bruins missing half a roster for the next month there’s an opportunity here for either of them. I’m not sure I’m ready to deal with Sabres fans again if they’re good. You don’t even remember what it’s like it’s been so long. But we’d better get ready.

Second Screen Viewing

Jets vs. Wild – 3pm

Hey, it’s the Wild’s “GREAT RIVAL.” The Wild have done everything they can to try and entrench themselves at the top of the Central. What it got them was two points ahead of a Jets team that hasn’t really fired yet having played two games more. Which is nothing. Good work, Wild. Anyway, these games are usually fun, in that the Jets pretty much roll all over them or they’re high-scoring. You figure the Jets are going to go on a streak somewhere around here.

Other Games

Oilers vs. Ducks – 3pm

Islanders vs. Devils – 3pm

Red Wings vs. Capitals – 3pm

Flames vs. Knights – 5pm

Leafs vs. Jackets – 6pm

Penguins vs Bruins – 6:30

Panthers vs. Hurricanes – 6:30

Avalanche vs. Coyotes – 7pm

Predators vs. Blues – 7pm

Senators vs. Stars – 7pm

Canucks vs. Sharks – 8pm

 

Everything Else

Game #23 – Hawks vs. Lightning Preview – Walking Is Still Honest

By Matt McClure 1994 0

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Game Time: 6:30PM CST
TV/Radio: NBCSN, NBC Sports Chicago, WGN-AM 720
The Business Of Pleasure: Raw Charge

In a manner befitting of their relative age as far as the hockey world is concerned, rather than spend Black Friday in California as they have done in years past, the Hawks have opted to go the snow bird route and kick off the holiday season in Florida, starting tonight in Tampa against the lecherous Jon Cooper and his Lightning.

Everything Else

Game #23 – Hawks vs. Lightning Spotlight: The Clock That Won’t Strike Midnight

By Adam Hess 1904 0

It’s rather fascinating to look at the state of these two teams now three years and some change after they matched up in the 2015 Stanley Cup Final. The Lightning were an ascending team at that time and a lot of people seemed to think they might end up being the next kind of team to have an Era like the Blackhawks had. It hasn’t happened for the Lightning in the postseason obviously, but they’ve remained one of the better teams in the NHL since then while the Hawks now find themselves closer to the cellar than the ceiling.

With the amount of young talent the Lightning have, it’s not exactly surprising they’re second in the league in points right now. They’ve built their team extremely well around their core stars in Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, and Victor Hedman while also supplementing the whole deal with really talented depth – hey, that sounds familiar, doesn’t it? They made what now looks like one of the smartest trades in recent memory to get Mikhael Sergachev from the Habs, and then got aggressive in adding good veterans along the way as well. They’ve made the absolute most of their situation as they look to win a Cup in what looks like a really wide open window for them.

But perhaps their greatest and no doubt the most surprising find has been Yanni Gourde, who I promise you is not some random pumpkin-themed comic book villain. If you’re reading this and thinking “who the hell is Yanni Gourde?” you are probably not alone. As a 25-year old rookie, Gourde came out of absolutely nowhere last year to post 64 points (25G, 39A) in 82 games last year and solidified himself as one of the Bolts’ key depth contributors. This year he’s gotten off to an even better start to the season with 21 points (9G, 12A) in 22 games, and he just signed a huge, six-year extension in Tampa with an AAV of $5.167MM. It’s not often you see that kind of rise from guys with just 22 games of NHL experience before they hit 25-years-old.

The thing that feels so weird about Gourde is that all of his success just seems so unsustainable, and yet he’s sustained it. He shot 18.4% last year and is shooting 19.6% this year. On his entire career he’s at 18.9% shooting. That’s basically a goal for every five shots he takes, which just doesn’t make any damn sense. Mike Bossy is one the best goal scorers in NHL history, and he shot 21.2% for his career. Gourde’s own teammate Stamkos is one of the best modern goal scorers, and he’s shot just 16.4% on his career. Alex Fucking Ovechkin is probably gonna end up as the best goal scorer ever, and he’s shot just 12.5% on his career (though he does shoot more than most). Gourde’s conversion rate isn’t just high – it’s almost unprecedented in the modern age.

Obviously that doesn’t discredit Gourde in any way, because at this point it’s easy to think it’s just more dumb luck. This might be who he is as a scorer. Maybe he just has a shot that fools goalies better than most players, or maybe he just picks his spots really well. He’s been a brilliant addition for the Lightning, obviously, and he’s exactly the kind of sneaky good addition that high level teams tend to fall ass-backwards into. It’s not like the Blackhawks didn’t have similar lucky finds – Patrick Sharp didn’t score 20 goals until he was 25, and from that point forward he was a virtual lock to reach that benchmark. But even in Sharp’s case he never shot higher than 17.2% in a season.

Gourde is a fun player to watch, and like I said before he is a fun story. I am happy for him, and I definitely don’t want him to stop being fun and good at hockey. I am not sure that he will keep being able to score at that kind of rate, but even if he does eventually falling off a cliff in terms of shooting percentage, he’s still going to be a productive player. But at this point, he seems to be a Cinderella Story with a clock that won’t strike midnight.

Game #23 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built