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Game #35 – Sharks vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels December 16, 2018 1343 0

Game #35 Preview Suite

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Game #35 – Sharks vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels December 16, 2018 1296 0

Notes: We know that looks a little weird, but the Sharks aren’t playing with set lines at the moment. Pavelski will take some shifts at center and some as Thornton’s wing. Meier and Hertl switch all the times. It seems to be they have pairs on the forwards, Pavelski-Kane, Couture-Donskoi, Thornton-Sorensen and then the wingers other than that just rotate…Vlasic and Braun are taking the dungeon shifts so that Burns and Karlsson can run wild, but you’ll see the pairings change a bit too at times…Meier has four goals in his last two games…Couture has six points in his last five…Jones looked to have turned a corner but has given up seven goals in his last three games…

Notes: Again, wouldn’t seem to be much reason to change the lineup with the upturn in play. Dahlstrom certainly doesn’t deserve to come out of the lineup. Gustafsson won’t. Seabrook? That would be ballsy…The third line has been excellent in the two games they’ve gotten, if that continues where would Anisimov fit?…Wouldn’t be on the fourth line, Colliton seems to love it….

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Game #34 – Jets 3, Hawks 3, Jets Win Belching Contest – The TV’s On Too Much and I Don’t Ever Think Enough

By Rose Rankin December 14, 2018 1885 0

By all accounts, the Hawks had no business even being in this game. The Jets should be asking themselves tough questions about why this was as close as it was, although in the end their talent level was enough to let them do what good teams are supposed to do (i.e., beat shitty teams). The start of another losing streak? At least it has the qualifier of being an overtime loss. Let’s get to the bullets:

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

– Through the first two periods, this was honestly a game. Out of the gate the Hawks were fast, they were getting sticks in passing lanes at least a little bit, and they led in possession. Crawford gave up a power play goal to Mark Scheifele but it was off a ridiculously good pass from Blake Wheeler (basically the embodiment of what Fels talked about earlier today), and you could only tip your cap. And they ended the first tied at 1 thanks to Jonathan Toews‘ last-second goal, which also came from a great feed, this time from Saad to Keith to Toews. It was reminiscent of days past. Then Saad and Toews did it again in the second and the Hawks were leading…it was disconcerting, and while they played well they were by no means dominant.

– And that became apparent in the second when Patrik Laine just conjured a goal into being because he felt like it. This guy is insane, seriously. But fine, he’s too good for a team like the Hawks to thwart all night. The problem was later in the second when Mathieu Perreault was able to hop out of the penalty box and waltz in for a goal alone on Crawford. Granted, Crawford should have had that one but the power play preceding it was rather clown shoes and the Hawks couldn’t get set up well or hold onto the puck (obviously). And for the record, Pat and Eddie kept saying it was a short-handed goal and it was NOT SHORT HANDED WHEN THE GUY IN THE BOX SCORED. This is not rocket science—if the guy in the box scores then he is no longer in the box for the penalty that put him there. I just need someone to know this.

– Anyway, after that the Hawks pretty much deflated like a sad balloon. In the third they took repeated penalties and ended up down a man, and even when they finally had a power play themselves, John Hayden high-sticked Tyler Myers and they were right back where they started. They managed a pitiful 32 CF% in the third. But then…

–…Gustafsson gave them their second last-ditch goal of the night, tying it up with less than 10 seconds left, just as Toews had done in the first. You could tell Brossoit was pissed, and in the end he had nothing to worry about because the Hawks quickly coughed up the winning goal shortly into OT. But we got a point! We almost snuck one away from a far superior team! That’s now two games that HAVEN’T been regulation losses so…baby steps?

– Another positive: Brandon Saad had an excellent game. Defensively he looked good, like when he stopped Kulikov in the second and then took it down the ice for a nice opportunity, and he had two assists on the night. Add to that three shots, and he had a 54 and 58 CF% with Toews and Kahun respectively. We’re finding rays of hope wherever we can.

– The defense had its moments but also managed to be quite wobbly at times. Connor Murphy and Carl Dahlstrom were way underwater in possession, but there was Dahlstrom out against the Jets’ top line because why the fuck not? Duncan Keith on the other hand played well, looking like his old self at times. Except for when he was just standing around in OT watching Scheifele have his way with the puck and Crawford. Again, baby steps with a sort-of functioning defense at times, but there are still real fundamental problems here. At least we didn’t have to watch Brandon Manning.

– Jonathan Toews is continuing to play well and that’s nice. Alex DeBrincat did not continue his recent streak of playing well and that’s disappointing. Tonight his line managed barely over a 40 CF%, he only had one shot, plus he got picked on by Dustin Byfuglien being an asshole and running him over (that’s not Top Cat’s fault, it’s just the way things were going for him tonight). I know, he had two goals in his last two games, so give the guy a break. He just didn’t have it tonight and they could have used the help.

So it almost feels like a win to get even a point out of this game, when the Jets really should have brained these fools. The death march continues with four more games in the next week, against a lot more divisional opponents (i.e., good teams mostly). These last two have at least been watchable…onward and upward.

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Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – December 14

By Sam Fels December 14, 2018 1094 0

First Screen Viewing

Capitals vs. Hurricanes – 6:30

It’s a pretty weak slate in the NHL tonight, so this will have to do. Carolina continues to be the whiskey dick of the league, willing and seemingly able but never quite getting going. They lost last night and their playoff push window is going to start to winnow soon. The Caps are up near the top of the division, because someone has to be and Alex Ovechkin is a national treasure.

Second Screen Viewing

Bruins vs. Penguins – 6pm

The Penguins are in trouble. I don’t think this is just their normal slow start, because that defense and bottom six is weak. They’ll have the soft landing of the Metro to keep them in the playoff hunt, unless Carolina ever gets its act together, Which it won’t. The Bruins are the opposite, having every obstacle put in their way and yet they keep moving along. They’re not going to catch Tampa and Toronto is quickly getting out of site, but thanks to the Metro’s balloon-handed nature the Atlantic should get five in.

Other Games

Knights vs. Devils – 6pm

Coyotes vs. Rangers – 6pm

Senators vs. Red Wings – 6:30

Avalanche vs. Blues – 7pm

Flyers vs. Oilers – 8pm

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Game #34 – Jets vs. Hawks Preview/Wrapping Party: The Mole And The Mallet

By Sam Fels December 14, 2018 1843 0

vs.

RECORDS: Jets 20-9-2 Hawks 10-18-5

PUCK DROP: 7:30pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

FOR WE’VE NOWHERE TO BE: Arctic Ice Hockey

Now that the Hawks have finally broken their duck, or the latest duck (no, not that duck), what better time for the first visit of the team that’s dribbled their head on the ground like a basketball twice this year? That’s right shitheads, whatever good feelings were generated by Wednesday’s win over the fading-titan Penguins is probably getting snuffed out by current titan Winnipeg Jets.

There isn’t much more to add to this one that we didn’t already say on Tuesday. You’d imagine that the Hawks want to keep as much the same as possible, when they played pretty well. So Dylan Sikura should stay with David Kampf and Brendan Perlini, which made for an awfully effective third line on Wednesday. The fourth line of Andreas Martinsen, Marcus Kruger, and John Hayden produced two goals, so you know they’re sticking together. I don’t know if they’re actually any good (yes I do, they’re not) but they work hard and the Hawks almost certainly need that right now. And we’ll get to see more of Dylan Strome, Top Cat, and Patrick Kane together and if they can outshoot their possession and defensive problems.

At the back, I would be of the opinion that Carl Dahlstrom should get another run-out with Connor Murphy (UNITY!), because they were really good against Pittsburgh and really, what the fuck are you holding onto here? If Erik Gustafsson is healthy he should replace Brandon Manning, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he replaces Dahlstrom. Corey Crawford will get a chance to build on his first win since the Bush administration.

As for the Jets, they rolled from their barely-breathing-hard win over the Hawks into an overtime win against the Oilers last night at TRUE NORTH. It wasn’t a pristine effort as they blew a 3-1 lead and needed Mark Scheifele to pull their ass out of a sling to tie it and set up the winner in overtime. They didn’t suffer any injuries so you’ll see the exact same team that rubbed the Hawks’ ass in the moonshine on Tuesday before they started dreaming of butterflies and fluffy clouds and let the Hawks back into it. That includes backup Lauren Brossoit, who was shaky against the Hawks. His last three starts have been iffy really, as he gave up three to the Devils before that and four to the Blues, which is a real trick as they’re actively trying to not win. Brossoit had a big start to the season but the shine is starting to fade. So there’s some hope for the Westside Hockey Club.

This is a rare scheduling bonus for the Hawks, who haven’t caught a lot of teams on the second of a back-to-back. Combine that with the Jets taking the Hawks lightly, which is always possible, and maybe you can get the jump on them quickly. Crawford was awfully stabby and jumpy against the Penguins but still got the 40 saves to get a win. He certainly needed the confidence boost and hopefully he begins to smooth out a bit and get on a roll, if nothing else than to prove he still can. Of course, any streak of old Corey is going to fire up the trade wishes/rumors again, but that’s the course we’ve been set.

Let’s to it, lads…

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Game #34 – Jets vs. Hawks Spotlight: Blake Wheeler And The Spirit Of Giving

By Sam Fels December 14, 2018 1541 0

When you think of Blake Wheeler, if you think of Blake Wheeler (and we won’t comment if you do), you probably think of an all-conquering, clear-the-track power forward who goes wherever he wants and constantly opens up space for his linemates. And that’s not exactly wrong, because Wheeler can be that when he wants.

He can also be Adam Oates.

Wheeler led the league in assists last year, with 68, tied with Claude Giroux. For comparison’s sake, Patrick Kane–perhaps the preeminent playmaking winger of his time–has a career high of 60 assists in a season. Wheeler’s and Giroux’s 68 assists last campaign were the most by a winger since Jaromir Jagr put up 69 (shut up) in the year coming out of the lockout. Martin St. Louis also managed to put up 68 assists in ’10-’11, but Jagr is the only other winger you’ll find in the stratosphere of that total of helpers. In the interest of fairness, Wheeler spent a chunk of last season at center when Mark Scheifele was out with injury.

This year, Wheeler is on pace to do even better, and so far it’s all been from the wing. He has 33 assists in 30 games, which would put him on pace for 90 assists on the year. No winger has bettered 83 (go ahead) in the past 20 seasons, which of course was again Jagr.

Making it stranger still is that Wheeler is only on pace for 13 goals. Only Henrik Sedin has ended up with less goals while totaling up more than 65 assists, with 10. Adam Oates is also, fittingly, on this list as he managed 13 goals in 2000-2001 while collecting 69 (still shut up) assists. This kind of disparity isn’t seen much, especially for a player as capable of scoring as Wheeler is.

It gets even more odd as you dig deeper. Wheeler totaled 34 assists on the power play last year, which led the league by four last year. This year, he’s already piled up 17 power play assists, which leads the league by two, and puts him at a rate to pile up 46 power play assists. Since the NHL began keeping track of power play points in ’97-’98, only Sidney Crosby has toppled that total, with 48 in ’06-’07. Guess it helps when you can just dish across to Patrik Laine at the other circle all the time.

Wheeler has company this year. Both Mitch Marner and Mikko Rantanen have more assists than him this year, and both are wingers. Rantanen is on pace for a simply unholy and ridiculous 103 assists this year, and probably then has to give a quarter of his paycheck to Nathan MacKinnon.

Either way, Wheeler has changed his game and you can’t argue when it results in points on the board. While some may deride the amount that has come on the power play, Wheeler led the pack in primary assists at all strengths last year, and he did so by seven of them. So whether it’s at evens or on the man-advantage, if you’re the guy setting up the goal, that’s what matters. This year both Rantanen and Marner are ahead of him in primary assists.

Still, it’s a little weird what’s happened to Wheeler’s game. He used to be a possession monster, with relative Corsi-percentages of +5.7 and +8.4 three and to years ago. Last year, when he started this Jason Kidd act, that dropped to the negative side, as he’s on this year as well. It doesn’t matter when you’re scoring as much as he is, or his line is, but it gives you the impression that there could be even more within Wheeler if he were so inclined. And certainly no one minded when he put together 18 assists in 17 playoff games last year.

Maybe this is just how Wheeler’s game has evolved. He is 32, so it’s likely his peak is probably behind him. While his size and speed would still indicate that he can crash and smash his way around the ice, that has less of a shelf-life than a vision-quest that he’s become. Wheeler’s ability to pick a pass won’t go away with time, and seeing as how Laine can’t even get a drink legally yet, he could be feeding him for five or six more years. Nikolaj Ehlers, his winger at even-strength, is barely any older. So that passing tree is going to be around a while, too.

Don’t fool yourself, Wheeler is still taking his shots. He’s averaging nearly three shots on goal per game this year, and he was over three last year. He’s seen a unsustainable drop in his shooting-percentage this year to 6.2%, but the more telling is that his rate of attempts and shots per 60 minutes has declined the past three seasons. Then again, that’s when Laine and Ehlers showed up, so…

Wheeler has a five-year extension kicking in next year at $8.2M per year. If he can continue to pile up 55+ assists a year, and with Laine there’s no reason to think he can’t, no one’s going to complain about him being 38 when the deal is up.

Which makes you wonder about certainly players who get derided as “pass-first.” (Sound familiar?) Sure, it would be nice if every player did everything. Some aren’t wired that way. But if you can shoot just enough to make people think about it, isn’t it better to accentuate what they do well? Wheeler became a great passer. So the Jets stuck Laine/Ehlers on the other wing. Seems to be working out well, huh?

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Game #34 – Jets vs. Hawks Q&A: Derek Gagnon, From Earlier In The Week

By Sam Fels December 14, 2018 1417 0

Obviously, nothing much has changed from Tuesday. So here’s the Q&A we ran with Derek Gagnon (@DerekGagnon1) from ArcticIceHockey.com.

Overhanging the Jets season is a sort of “Cap-ocalypse” in the summer. Does this season have a feeling of now or never?

Not so much, though there is a feeling that this group will see some change next year. This team is still young, and players like Mark Scheifele and Patrik Laine should only improve as time goes by. The way things are going, the Jets should be a contender for a number of years to come.

With the cap going to $83 million or so, the Jets have something around $27 million in space now, with Trouba, Laine, Connor seemingly the must-keeps, along with a few other free agents. It seems doable, Is it?

I think it’s doable, though some sacrifices will have to be made along the way. Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor look to be Jets long term, and will get paid handsomely on their next contracts. There are some questions on defense though. The Jacob Trouba contract situation has been a concern for years, and with only one more season of restricted-free agent status left after this season, if they aren’t able to sign him long term it may be time to move him in the off-season. Tyler Myers is another situation that needs addressing. He’s being paid $5.5 million this year to play third pairing minutes, and not play them overly well. As an unrestricted free agent, I would expect the Jets to cut ties, but they may not if the Trouba contract isn’t long-term.

The cap being projected to go up to $83 million definitely works in the Jets favor, as that extra room will come in handy. Even then, it might mean more players on entry-level contracts on the team, rather than guys like Brandon Tanev. Mason Appleton and Kristian Vesalainen are a couple of names that could benefit from a cap crunch.

Why hasn’t Jack Roslovic popped more? Huge pedigree, big excitement, is it just the fourth line role he has right now?

Right now, I think it’s a combination of a lack of minutes and the insistence he play center, where he seems to be struggling. While dominant at the AHL level, it just hasn’t clicked at the NHL level yet. Things seemed to be progressing when he was briefly reunited with the former Manitoba Moose (AHL) line of Nic Petan, Roslovic and Mason Appleton, but Petan was dropped from the lineup in favor of Brendan Lemieux and there hasn’t been chemistry. Playing an average of 7:43 per night doesn’t help either.

Is there real worry about Connor Hellebuyck two months plus into the season? Or just negotiating the following season after playing deep into the playoffs for the first time and he’ll bounce back in plenty of time?

I think that it actually might be the change in pads that has plagued Connor Hellebuyck. The smaller chest protector seems to be taking some getting used to for Hellebuyck, which has seen more rebounds and the occasional tentative effort. I have full confidence that he will adapt and overcome, as he has exhibited his ability to be great at every level he has played at, including the NHL. His last three starts have been quite solid, stopping a combined 89 of 92 shots, so perhaps that corner has been turned.

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Game #34 – Jets vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: These Abominations

By Sam Fels December 14, 2018 1548 0

Thankfully they won’t be wearing them tonight. Which is great, because the Jets third jerseys are woeful and a complete waste of time.

There’s nothing wrong with nostalgia, in the right dose. And there’s nothing wrong with using a third jersey as an excuse to feature a new color scheme. The Penguins’ baby blues were art. But whatever this thing is misses by yards, not inches.

They look like beer league jerseys, or something out of a 70’s movie that didn’t have a budget for anything else. The name “Jets” is generic enough and these jersey seek, and succeed, to surpass that. The rule of hockey jerseys should be never tell us what you are, show us what you are. That means no script logo. There has never been a jersey with lettering on the front that’s been any good. The Ducks jerseys that had them sucked, so did the Penguins from years ago, and the Rangers have had the most bland jersey for the entire history of the NHL. At this point it’s intentional.

A third jersey should be a time to use an alternate or throwback logo. We’re not huge fans of the old Jets jerseys either, which used script as well. But it would have been better than this couch-blanket for a baby looking thing. Why not take the opportunity to take the shoulder logos from the main home jersey and use that as the main logo? Fuck, why not just wear New York Jets colors? That would have at least been interesting.

This also is a color that harkens back to Thrashers days, which the Jets scorched on their way out of Atlanta. For whatever Thrashers fans there are left, it’s something of an insult (as is the Canes use of the Whalers jerseys and on a much larger scale but we’ll get to that). And certainly no one in Winnipeg has or wants any connection to the Thrashers.

The NHL has a jersey problem anyway. It probably should go back to the home whites, or better yet do away with home and away jerseys altogether and just have main and alternate. Hockey would look so much better with color vs. color games, given the way it would pop against the backdrop of the white surface of the ice. But thirds are a chance to really do something creative, be it throwback or something new like the NBA sometimes features.

So which is this? It’s neither. Which is why it sucks.

Game #34 Preview Suite