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Hang On Loosely: Hawks 3 – Kings 4

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Box Score

Event Summary

War On Ice

Natural Stat Trick

Not exactly how you want to start a trip that isn’t going to have much margin for error to begin with. And while the downfall was due to a familiar problem (mostly), it’s not one that you fear is going to be a long-lasting one. At least you certainly hope so.

Still, the Hawks once again couldn’t even draw a point out of a game in which they were tied or had the lead in the 3rd, and that is worrisome. You have to close these, especially when Nashville may never lose again. Which is what they did against Washington, Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Dallas. I don’t expect it to continue, but a couple more and we can’t label it an anomaly anymore.

Let’s get to it:

Everything Else

Top-Forty Castoff From A Record Stand: Hawks at Kings Preview/Pregame Thread/Brake Check

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Hawk Wrestler vs. Jerry-Lawler-WWE-Superstar-1

FACEOFF: 9;30pm Central

TV/RADIO: CSN for the locals, NBCSN for the non, Sportsnet for the Hosers, WGN Radio

THE DEAD PRESIDENTS: The Royal Half, Jewels From The Crown

The post All-Star Break… well you can’t really call it a rush until March or so, so I guess portion? Section? Let’s all agree February kinda sucks and move on. Anyway, there’s no stoppages at least from tonight all the way until the Hawks pack up the bags at some point in the spring. And of course it kicks off with a stop in L.A. to begin the California swing of this six-game roadie. Because why start off easy?

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Hit The Reset Button

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So the break is over, I’m back from vacation (NOLA!!!), and I think it’s a good time to reset and see where we are and what we should be watching for.

-The Hawks sit three points back of the Preds, though having played two more games. And making up ground this week is not looking all that likely. While the Hawks are doing the California swing (not as daunting as it could be but certainly not easy), the Preds get the Avs twice around one game with the Blues, which you know is going to overtime or a shootout.

If ground is going to be made up, it’s probably after that. During the second leg of the Hawks’ trip, the Preds see the Ducks and Rangers, though also the Maple Leafs. And then when the Hawks hit that eight-game homestand (which actually serves up a fair amount of hanging curves), the Preds see both Florida teams, the Jets, the Sharks, and the Islanders before their schedule softens up.

If the Hawks can stay where they are with the Predators through this road trip, which shouldn’t be that hard without Pekka Rinne, and then collect 13 of a possible 16 points on that homestand (look at the schedule, not unreasonable), the Preds would have to go just 5-4 through the same stretch to stay even. And by then they’ll have Rinne back. So yeah, it’s going to be tough.

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High On The Hog: Rasmussen Gets A Call From The Hawks

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After a big week of action that saw the Rockford IceHogs hold two consecutive opponents scoreless, the Chicago Blackhawks called up a forward. That player may come as a bit of a surprise. Dennis Rasmussen will be joining the Blackhawks as they head on their post-All-Star break road trip.

The 24-year-old center is in his rookie season in Rockford and has eight goals and eight assists in 44 games with the IceHogs. He’s a plus-ten and has been a mainstay on a strong penalty kill unit.

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Fancy Fun: Team Toews vs. Team Foligno

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Robb Tufts (@robbtuftshockey on Twitter) from St. Louis Game Time (stlouisgametime.com and @StLouisGameTime on Twitter) and I decided to have a little fun with the fancy stats ahead of today’s NHL All-Star Game. This basically game about from a joke on Twitter, but it sounded like a good time so here you. Robb took Team Foligno and graciously allowed me to take Team Toews. Enjoy.

Team Foligno

Team Foligno Player Usage Chart

The player usage chart does not bode well for Team Foligno.  They drafted players who are predominantly either in the shut down quadrant (less oz starts and tougher competition) or the sheltered quadrant (more oz starts and weaker competition).  Considering that they are going up against the best of the best in the NHL, it would be nice to see the player spread a bit more evenly between the shut down and two way (more oz starts and tougher competition) quadrants.  The big question for Team Foligno is whether or not the players in the sheltered quadrant will be able to handle the quality of competition they’ll be facing on Sunday.

Team Foligno Corsi Chart

Looking at Team Foligno’s Corsi stats combined with points per 60 and PDO doesn’t make things look too promising for this team either.  A third of their team has above league average Corsi Against per 60.  And while Ekman-Larsson might be above league average in Corsi For per 60 and below league average in CA/60 he also has the lowest points per 60 out of all the players on the team.  As one of the players mentioned during the fantasy draft, defense is somewhat meaningless during the all star games.  So having someone like Larsson on the team could be a drag. The team is 50/50 when it comes to PDO.  Half of the team is above 100.0 while the other half is below. Most of the sub 100.0 players are in the prime quadrant for Corsi (above league average CF/60 and below league average CA/60).  It could be we’ll get to see what these players are really capable of when paired with other high caliber players.  This is Team Foligno’s bright spot in what could be a very challenging team.

Team Toews

I started to look at the Quality of Competition based on TOI (Time On Ice) for Team Toews but there was very little difference in the players. This is pretty predictable since All-Star Game players for the most part are some of the best players on their teams. Many of the forwards face the toughest competition and if they are not being used in a tough QoC situation, their teams are giving them offensive zone starts to optimize their unique offensive abilities.  As Robb mentioned above, defense in an All-Star Game is not really the focus of the event. The defensemen selected all have very good offensive skills so it is likely we will see them activating into the offense a lot during what is sure to be a high event game.

CORSI RATES VS AVG

The graph above shows each of the teams as well as the league average for players with at least 300 minutes of TOI during the season for comparison. Team effects on these rates are heavy so these are to be taken with a grain of salt. As you can see, most of the defensemen selected are fairly aggressive offensively (CF60) so this should make for a fun game.

ALL STARS TOEWS WITH AVG

Team Toews has a nice mix of players, both defensemen and forwards, who are used to working out of the offensive and defensive zones. Team Toews ended up with some of the hottest shooters in the league through the mid-season mark, particularly Tarasenko, Forsberg and Nash, as you can see by their high PDO marks. All of the defensemen and nearly all of the forwards are above the league average in P/60 (Points Per 60) at 5v5, again pointing to what should be a fun goal-filled game.

ALL STARS GOALIES AVG

The goalies for both teams are all having good seasons thus far. Below is a look at their Save Percentage at 5v5 versus league average (of goalies with 500 or more minutes TOI) as well as their SA60 (Shots On Goal Against Per 60). Price and Crawford have been facing shots at a higher clip than the others, although it is important to remember that Score Adjusted metrics include all score situations so some of the rates you see there are affected by teams having big leads and other teams pressing to get back in the game. Regardless of what is included, Halak has routinely faced shots against at a lower pace than the others. Elliott has the highest Sv%, but also the lowest ice time. While playing the highest number of minutes at 5v5 and facing shots against at a pace higher than the league average, Carey Price has maintained a terrific Sv% of 93.78%. All of the goalies involved are probably going to give up some goals so these marks probably don’t mean all that much for this game, but it is interesting to see how they match up against each other.

*Data used herein collected from war-on-ice.com