Info courtesy of Corsica.hockey and HockeyDb.com
Game #32 Preview
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This Is A Close-Up?!
The Hawks didn’t exactly come in rolling to this three-game homestand. They had lost five in a row, though two of those came in OT or a shootout to the Stars, and three of them came without Corey Crawford (though the Hawks scored exactly five goals in the three games he didn’t play, so what difference he would have made wouldn’t have risen much above negligible). The idea was that getting to play three straight teams near the bottom of the standings would be a chance for the Hawks to rediscover some of their game, style, swagger, whatever you want to call it.
It didn’t really work out that way.
Friday night saw the Hawks get goalie’d a touch, as Robin Lehner was very good and that will happen. They tossed 51 shots at him and it wasn’t like the Caps game where their shots basically comprised a belly-rub. They had a good number of really good chances that he snuffed out or they hit a post. Happens, fine, whatever. Not ideal but you accept it and move on.
I’ll even let Sunday’s….whatehaveya, slide a bit, or would normally. A sleepy Sunday night in mid-December against a Coyotes team… that always can lead to a “fuck this” effort. While you don’t like to see them when a team isn’t winning…again, they happen. Figure you have a good effort against the Panthers and no one would bat an eyelash at a simple “let’s get through this” against Arizona.
And then you get last night. A Florida team that has a top line, Vincent Trocheck, and that’s about it, on the second night of a back-to-back and starting Reimer in both of them. And the Hawks were fortunate to get out of it with anything, thanks to the Toews line picking up the slack.
And please don’t tell me that Jan Rutta was the glue holding this team together.
Now normally, with other teams, when a struggling team like the Hawks are (and they are) can’t get it juiced for two straight games at home–games and points they need, mind–one might start wondering if the players have tuned out for some reason. And one might start looking hard at the coach, especially a team that has higher expectations than nicking a wild card spot and especially one that is coming off two straight first round exits that splooges its “ONE GOAL” slogan everywhere it can.
Clearly, that won’t happen here. Even if this summer saw Stan Bowman take control of the team as a GM would (and we’re only speculating on that but it sure seems that way), Coach Q has too much pull to get fired, short of ruining one of Toews’s vegetable gardens. Because yes, Toews can fire Q if he so chooses.
Next year if the Hawks were in the same spot? Yeah, maybe then we can talk.
Still, I’m sure there are fans that want to point to the Kings revival this year, or the Penguins coming alive under Mike Sullivan about two years ago, and claim the same thing could happen to the Hawks with a new voice.
The key difference is that the Kings and Penguins went from either a terribly defensive/clueless coach to one who opened things up. There is a freedom to their styles now that they didn’t have before, which just about every player is going to find refreshing. I’m not sure it works the other way. Oh hi there, Dallas Stars.
And the thing is, Q plays an open style. Whatever the Hawks problems are, it’s not because they’re too defensive or he’s too conservative. Forwards are allowed to express themselves in the offensive zone if they see fit (except Nick Schmaltz). Defensemen are allowed, and in fact encouraged, to get up into the play. Players love that. So bringing in a hard-ass who’s going to stress blocking shots or something is probably counter-productive and also this team isn’t exactly built for that. Even if Stan wanted to pull the trigger, and I would have high doubts he does, his options to move in are limited.
If they players are not responding, and if that’s a problem it’s certainly smaller than the problems of the holes on the roster, it’s not because they don’t like the style. Sure, maybe the Hawks could adopt a more Pittsburgh approach which is a little more straight-lined and sees more go-routes out of the zone and picking up passes off the glass. But given how defensively wonky the Hawks have been, I’m not sure they have that luxury.
But watching this team the past two games, something is off and it’s not just having no third line to speak of, or being thin down the middle when Schmaltz doesn’t play there. I can’t even blame the defense. Connor Murphy has been so good he’s actually masked Seabrook for the most part. Rutta and Forsling have their issues, but Forsling has done enough in the offensive zone to at least be balanced.
No, they’ve been sloppy, half-hearted at times, and lazy. Missing passes as badly as they did at times last night…that’s just not being focused because this team isn’t lacking skill. It felt more than just not getting it up for one game in the middle of the season. And this team hasn’t really earned the right to do that yet. There was a going-through-the-motions feel to it, one we’ve not seen from Hawks teams before. At least not ones that are a long way from securing their spot in the standings. When you do this in late February in Colorado because you’re already locked into second in the division/conference, no one cares. Do it now, and people do. I can’t imagine Q was too thrilled, but he probably wasn’t too thrilled with Sunday’s effort either. And this is how they responded?
And they’re running out of leeway for those kinds of efforts.
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Game #31 I Can’t Promise I’ll Try, But I’ll Try to Try – Hawks 2, Panthers 2 (Hawks Win Karaoke Contest)
They needed two points tonight, and it certainly didn’t come easy but hey, it came. To the bullets:
– Through two periods the Panthers were beating the Hawks in nearly every measurement — shots, scoring chances, CF%, high-danger chances, faceoff percentage, you name it — except, of course, for the one that counts. Despite looking like gerbils on meth, the Hawks managed to only give up one goal in the second, largely thanks to…c’mon, you know who it’ll be…Corey Crawford. Up until the third, one dominant shift by the top line had been enough to at least keep it tied, until Keith got caught up with ‘ole Wide Dick’s package, and Trocheck and McGinn were able to get by them and score. It was certainly frustrating, but given how the Hawks had been playing, it wasn’t exactly surprising.
– But then, the top line! In the first period, they had said dominant shift that gave the Hawks the lead (and probably contributed to the coasting for a while), but let’s look at that: Top Cat was working behind the net, and all three of them were digging pucks out of the boards and keeping continual pressure, until Saad was able to bury a quick shot from the top of the crease. It was exactly the type of shift they need to have consistently — and until mid-way through the third it looked like that one shift might have been the only one they had in them. Their possession numbers were better than decent all night, but no other finish. Fortunately they pulled their shit together when it was needed and Toews tied the game in the third.
– Jan Rutta got his head dented in during the second period and left the game. I’m not happy about this, and I will not celebrate someone’s injury, even if he has been kinda sucking lately. What’s more interesting is 1. Will this finally lead Q to #FreeKempny? Will he be forced to? One would think so, and 2. How will any resulting reshuffle affect the defense? Franson skated in practice today, so it’s possible that Q hates Kempny so much that he’ll put an injured and aging bag of crap in instead of him. Barring that, would Kempny pair with Forsling? Or would Murphy move up to be paired with Keith and Oesterle moves elsewhere? Stay tuned.
– Speaking of Connor Murphy, he basically saved a goal with a smooth sweep of the puck out of the net before the refs saw him do it. It takes a village.
The Hawks needed to take all six points available in these last three games, and they pulled it out of their ass. This is their first three-game win streak this year, which is good news and yet sad that it took this long, right? Next up is Winnipeg, which stumbled a little recently but beat the crap out of Vancouver last night, so they may have their mojo back. I don’t know if I’d count on any momentum, but maybe some faith that they can polish a turd when necessary? Onward and upward.
Line of the Night: “This Blackhawks power play has been a buzzkill for the last couple games.” —Pat Foley, in the world’s greatest understatement
Beer de jour: Fistmas by Revolution, because holiday-themed beers are only acceptable in the month of December
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Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – December 12th
First Screen Viewing
Lighting vs. Blues – 7pm
A top of the table clash. This would one have even more space if Jaden Schwartz weren’t on his regular injury absence, but that hasn’t stopped the Blues from winning four in a row. There’s still a temptation to say, “Yeah, but it’s the Blues.” And that won’t go away until they do something that anyone will remember other than spitting up all over themselves when it counts. But it’s a new coach, a good one, and there’ s certainly a lot of talent here. This will be a marker of sorts for them. The Lightning have no such questions. They’ve been here before, this lineup is stacked, and their leading of the East isn’t really much of a surprise. If the weakness of the Blues is their defense, and anything with Jabe O’Meester on it has to be considered a weakness, then the Bolts’ firepower should break through. Finally, NBCSN gets one right.
Second Screen Viewing
Kings vs. Devils – 6pm
It’s hard to believe that these are two teams at the top of their divisions, but here we are. The Devils should sink any moment now, and seem on their way. The Kings might be the real deal, as they’re here without Jeff Carter and Kopitar remains back to form.
Other Games
Senators vs. Sabres – 6pm
Leafs vs. Flyers – 6pm
Avalanche vs. Capitals – 6pm
Oilers vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm
Flames vs. Wild – 7pm
Canes vs. Knights – 9pm
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Game #31 – Panthers vs. Hawks Preview/Fly-Fishing Trip: Five Is Right Out
vs. 
RECORDS: Panthers 12-14-5 Hawks 14-11-5
PUCK DROP: 7:30pm
TV: NBCSN Chicago
I’M OLD AND I’M COMING BACK: Panther Parkway, Litter Box Cats
The Hawks got three games against the remedial class of the NHL to set back their five-game losing streak. It hasn’t been pretty, but they got the four points required against the Sabres and Coyotes, and the last of the set is tonight agains the Cats. The Florida Panthers aren’t quite the same overly-medicated cases that the first two are, but they’re still under .500 and still very much the Florida Panthers. The Hawks will also catch them on the second of a back-to-back, having beaten another fellow jacket-with-mittens-pinned-to-them-year-round crew member Red Wings last night in overtime.
Not much has changed too much for the Cats since you last saw them Thanksgiving weekend. There are four real forwards here in Huberdeau, Barkov, Trocheck, and because I’m in a good mood Bjugstad. Dadonov is hurt. The rest of the crew is just a bunch of reclamation projects and very young kids. So the top line can kick your head in for about a third of the game if they’re on song, and Trocheck can usually conjure something, but they just don’t have the depth to take that over a full 60.
It’s kind of the same story on the back end, where you won’t complain too much about a top pairing of Aaron Ekblad and Keith Yandle. But beyond that… same story. Matheson and Weegar (my fellow babies) are kids, and Petrovic has been around long enough to fully label himself “a guy.”
The Cats haven’t been helped by Roberto Luongo’s injury, as he was excellent before going down for what looks like a while. Optimus Reim, James Reimer, has been the opposite. And because he played last night, the Hawks might be getting a look at Harri Sateri tonight, which we are told is an actual name and not a condition. He hasn’t played in the NHL yet, so don’t be surprised if Bob Boughner rolls out Reimer two nights in a row. Especially as the Panthers are far enough behind and have enough teams to climb over to get into the playoff spots that they can’t really be pissing away any more points.
For the Hawks, one lineup change that appears to be on the cards is Richard Panik being scratched for Ryan Hartman. While Panik hasn’t scored since Purim, it feels a little harsh on him because the rest of his game has been ok. But then there’s this from Q:
Quenneville on what he hopes Panik takes from being scratched: "Whether he’s shooting or around the net, disturbing there, but having the puck and keeping it more than as opposed to being a dead-end at that end when he does get around it."
— Scott Powers (@ByScottPowers) December 12, 2017
So clearly Q isn’t thrilled with his work when he gets the puck, and I can’t really argue with that. It’s almost as if he’s… Richard Panik? The guy who couldn’t crack the Leafs roster two years ago? That one? Could it be?
Anyway, Hartman is running out of time to actually be of use this season before he’s permanently demoted to the Q Doghouse, and we know trying to escape from there is like trying to escape from a black hole. Playing with Hinostroza and Sharp should at least make for an active line, even if it doesn’t have the slightest clue where to be and when. If you combine Hartman and Hinostroza… well, you’d still have a player that has no idea how to be a center.
The rest of the lineup remains the same, though no word on if Saad and DeBrincat will remain on their off-sides as they were on Sunday. Hope so. Jordan Oesterle remains in the lineup, and Michal Kempny continues to stare straight ahead and wonder what might have been while being unresponsive to anything going on around him. Suddenly the lyrics to “One” make a lot more sense to him.
This is still a honey part of the schedule for the Hawks. Yes, the Jets are pretty spiky right now but after that it’s the thoroughly mediocre Wild, Stars, Devils, Canucks, Oilers, Flames, Rangers, and Knights. In fact, the Hawks don’t face a team you’d consider “definitely good” until January 12th against the Jets again. So take advantage.
Game #31 Preview
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Game #31 – Panthers vs. Hawks: Spotlight – They Were Shining There For You And Me, For Liberty, Luongo
He won’t play tonight, which will deprive both Roberto Luongo and the United Center faithful another night together. Which we both know they love so much. And it could have possibly been Bob’s last appearance in Chicago. Yes, he’s signed for four more seasons after this one. Yes, before going down with a serious injury Luongo was once again excellent, and doesn’t appear to be in need of the big blue curtain. But still, Luongo will turn 39 in April, and you can’t help but ask just how much longer he wants to play. Especially if the Panthers continue to be in the “making up the numbers” category.
And it’ll still sound strange to some, but Luongo will go down as one of the greatest goalies of all-time. And it’s the longevity of his career that’s truly astounding.
Because of how the position has changed as time has gone one, it’s nearly impossible to judge goalies across eras. Luongo is has the 9th best career save-percentage of all-time, but everyone around him is a contemporary. Except for the career leader, which is Dominik Hasek. And Hasek is really the only one who played to Luongo’s age and beyond and maintained an above-average SV%. Hasek had a .925 in 43 games for Ottawa the first year out of the lockout before getting hurt in the Olympics at the age of 41. At 37 Hasek had a .915 for the ’02 champion Red Wings, still above the league average of .908.
And that’s about all there is compare Luongo to. The other one is Henrik Lundqvist. Career-wise, you can’t split them. Luongo’s career SV% is .9192. Hank’s is .9196. Luongo is three years older, but has maintained a higher level the past three years. The worry in New York is that Hank is already on the donkey end of his battle with Father Time, and he’s only 35. Hank hasn’t had the same workload as Luongo either.
You run out of comparisons after that. The only other one you can think of is Martin Brodeur. Brodeur fell off the truck and had it back over his head at the age of 38. His SV% went from .916 to .903 and never got above .908 again, four points below the league average then. You can debate Martin Brodeur all day, but his SV%s never got above .920, something Bobby Lu has done eight times. In reality, there’s just no way to argue that Brodeur was better than Luongo. Roberto just never got to play behind a Lamoriello-inspired Devils defense. Or really, Scott Niedermayer.
Sure, Tim Thomas bested Luongo in 2011 when he was 36, but he never came close to that again and wasn’t even a starter in the league until 32. He just doesn’t have the longevity. Maybe a higher peak, but the mountain isn’t as big.
Luongo is clearly a first-ballot of Hall of Famer, and yet he’ll never live down that 2011 Final when he couldn’t stop a shot in Boston. But it wasn’t Luongo who froze on the first line in the spotlight, and he didn’t cause Ryan Kesler’s hips to fall off.
What will also argue against Luongo is that he hasn’t been on a team to win a playoff round since that 2011 Final. No position is judged harsher on playoff success/failure than a goalie, because goalies can win Cups, or at least a series or two, by themselves. Luongo has a .934 in the Panthers’ last appearance in the playoffs, but they still lost to the Islanders in six games. He never managed above a .915 in a playoff run before that.
And obviously, the meltdowns have been so spectacular. It wasn’t just that he lost. It was the seven goals in ’09 to the Hawks. It was the touchdown surrendered in every home game to the same Hawks in ’10. The capitulation in three games in Boston. No one’s going to forget that.
It sucks that the Panthers appear to be a basketcase organization and won’t get Luongo one more chance to at least set a record straight. He’s not going to get that Cup, but goalies who perform like this around the age of 40 just don’t come around much. And maybe Luongo’s injury shows you why.
Game #31 Preview
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Game #31 – Panthers vs. Hawks: Q&A With Frank Rekas From November 25th
We figured not that much has changed in two weeks.
Frank Rekas is the editor of PantherParkway.com. Follow him on Twitter @FrankRekas.
Let’s start with just what “the plan” is in Florida. They fired all the guys they hired to take the team in a more modern and analytic direction after about 12 minutes, and brought back Dale Tallon. But the team doesn’t appear to be any better and in fact there have been a couple bewildering decisions. What’s going on here?
The Florida Panthers are good at one thing: Being consistently inconsistent. When Dale Tallon came to town in 2010 he had his “Blueprint” which was going to steer the Panthers in a winning direction. Within two years the Panthers won the Atlantic Division and went to the playoffs for the first time in 10 years. It’s been said they they may have peaked too early, or that a lot of players had career seasons that year and it was just luck. Regardless, that was as fun of a season as South Florida had seen in years. But good things in South Florida don’t last forever and that season was followed by the lockout year, and then the wheels fell off in 2013-2014 and Kevin Dineen was fired because, why not? It must have been his fault. It was a roster that was put together with duct tape and staples. Nothing went right other than re-acquiring Roberto Luongo at the trade deadline. With new ownership in place, changes were going to be made and they were, starting with a new head coach Gerard Gallant. The team improved by 25 points in Gallants’ first season behind the bench, followed by another division championship and playoff birth in 2015-2016. THAT’S when the demolition began. The executives lead by what some of us call the Army Math Team and Pentagon Trading LLC decided that even though the team had it’s best season ever, they needed to make changes cause of analytics. I’m personally not a fan of Corsi and Fenwick, but I do know that it’s a part of hockey. They don’t measure however things like character, hockey sense and leadership. After that season, the Panthers traded fan favorite and an up and coming leader in defenceman Erik Gudbranson. This pissed off Gallant to no end, but he dealt with it. Until he was fired. Replaced by then General Manager Tom Rowe, who is about as qualified for either of those positions as any one of us is. We could likely have done better. The 2016-2017 season was a dumpster fire. Now to the present, where Dale Tallon is back in as the General Manager left to fix the mess that Rowe left behind. The Tom Rowe experience in my mind has set the organization back at least two to three years. The defense is young and inexperienced, except for Keith Yandle who doesn’t play much defense. If you can stop the top line from scoring, you pretty much have the game won, and they aren’t tough to play against. Beyond all this, things are great. We’ve been told to be patient, which I responded with this,On the plus side, Vincent Trocheck is over a point-per-game and on his way to a career year. Any difference in his game for this or riding the percentages a bit?Trocheck is one of those special players. He’s not big by NHL standards, but he plays like he is. Never takes a shift off and is probably the real heart and soul of the team. As one of my favorite former NHL coaches would have said, he’s gone through the “maturation process” and he’s producing like he should. He’s on pace for a career year at a point per game clip so far, and if he had any decent wingers to play with, who knows how much he’d produce. But he needs help. This pace that he’s on can’t last with the linemates that he’s been given. Hopefully that changes cause Vinny is a good kid that deserves better. It’s been fun watching him progress and develop into the player he is today. He has a very bright future, but will that future be here?We tend to separate NHL coaches and GMs on a binary scale, either Idiot or Not An Idiot and that’s it. What is Bob Boughner?Well I’m not fond of his attire, something I joke about on Twitter and have offered to take him shopping. That being said, it’s 21 games into the season, and he doesn’t really have much to work with. While it’s too early to say he’s one or the other, he’s made some questionable moves for sure, and insists on keeping Keith Yandle and Aaron Ekblad together as the number one defensive pair. Do you remember when the Hawks had Doug Smolek and Brad Brown on defense? Dirk Graham was the coach for the Hawks that year and we know what happened to him. For a coach that played defense during his career, Boughner hasn’t been much of an influence. He needs a better roster, and there are a few players that need to look in the mirror. Otherwise Boughner is trying to get blood out of a rock. There are some nights he looks like he’s in over his head. Learning on the job isn’t fun, especially in South Florida.Jared McCann has some pretty impressive underlying numbers so far. Did the Cats steal this kid from the Canucks?I think it’s too early to tell on this one. Last season he clearly wasn’t ready, and this year, up until his recent injury he looked much better. He’s been back for a couple games, but he’s also suffering from a mixed bag of linemates. To be honest, I’d like to reverse the trade. Gudbranson brings more to the table, despite his poor analytics, than McCann. The Panthers need Gudbranson’s heart, soul, and toughness. Let’s see a full season of McCann before we pass judgement on his value.What’s it going to take for the Panthers not to just spasm a playoff berth every so often, but to be a consistent playoff team to build a platform to something more?They need to stop with all the changes and decide on a direction, other than a consistent swirl down a drain, only to come up for air once every few seasons. It’s hard to attract players and coaches to an organization when there’s so much change and a history of turmoil. Yes, it’s sunny South Florida where there’s no state income tax, but honestly, why do you think so many over 35 year old free agents like it here? No media attention, South Beach, perfect weather during the season, and a great place to retire. Which some players have done while still under contract. But there’s no pressure to win. Mediocrity and complacency are being touted as patience. With the deal the team has with the arena, they aren’t going anywhere, yet with attendance down again, and the team unable to string together three consecutive wins, it’s depressing. The owners haven’t been afraid to spend money, that’s not the issue. It’s how they’ve spent it that’s the concern. That unfortunately is a much longer discussion. The other issue is that the cupboard is thin. No one in the minors appears to be ready to step in and contribute. After having been touted as having a plentiful minor league system just a few seasons ago, there’s nothing. The fan base deserves and wants more. Patience is thin. What’s it going to take? It’s going to take an attitude that losing isn’t acceptable for starters. Players will need to be held accountable no matter how much money they’re making. And it’s going to take a change in culture. The team has no chemistry and it shows. They were on the way to respectability just two seasons ago. But ownership apparently isn’t aware of one of the most common phrases: “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”. Unfortunately they thought things needed to be fixed and they were wrong.Game #31 Preview
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Game #31 – Panthers vs. Hawks: Douchebag Du Jour – Dale Tallon’s Usual Mope
As he’s determined to dull whatever shine he had for having the biggest hand in creating the Hawks run of success, it’s hard not to notice Dale Tallon’s need to always have a knuckle-dragging nincompoop on his team. This year it’s Michael Haley. Somehow this goofus has appeared in all 29 games for the Cats, amassing 63 penalty minutes to go along with his seven points. Those seven points are over halfway to his career-high of 12, which came last year in San Jose in 58 games. 58 games where he collected 128 penalty minutes. You probably don’t need us to tell you that Haley’s underlying numbers are down around the level where you might find oil. Haley has played more than 10 minutes in a game just twice this season.
It’s not really his fault. But the hypocrisy of NHL coaches when they tell you this type of player is vital to winning, and yet can’t trust them to actually be on the ice at any time that matters will never not be hilarious/stupid/bewildering.
And this has been a staple of Tallon teams. This is the GM who signed Shawn Thornton for to a three-year contract to bark from the bench, providing the vital skill of telling his teammates how often they needed to score to come back in a game. Because fuck knows he wasn’t going to help with that cause. Before that, Krys Barch was a Panther for years. George Parros made an appearance. So did Darcy Hordichuk.
His days here saw Ben Eager, Adam Burish (who at least could claim to be able to move at some point), and David Koci.
Tallon is hardly alone. Fuck, the reigning two-time champs TRADED for Ryan Reaves. But in his bid to undo anything that anyone who might have read a spreadsheet did before he took back the GM office in Sunrise like a game of Risk, you can bet Tallon is going to double-down on this strategy.
And then look at this shit!
The fucking New York Times! Lauding a player who actually had to play hockey to maintain his career! Does any sport weep more over something so obsolete as hockey does over goons? You don’t see football writers pining for the day of the option quarterback, do you? Or the true center in basketball?
They treat these guys like they worked in the mill that shut down the whole town and now they’ll starve. There were 30 of these jobs at most, in professional sports league! Where they had the option of trying to play the sport as it was meant! Good christ they’re not going to be in a bread line! It’s astounding, it really is.
Game #31 Preview
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Game #31 – Panthers vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs
All stats at even-strength unless noted. Courtesy of Corsica.hockey and NaturalStatTrick.com
Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes
CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60
CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against
G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes
xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending.
PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.
Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates
Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone
TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against
Game #31 Preview
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Game #31 – Panthers vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built
Info provided by Corsica and HockeyDB.com
Game #31 Preview