Game #67 Preview

I know, it isn’t like me to try and find the positives in anything. It’s not what you’re used to after 10 years of being here, if you’ve been here that long (and God help you if you have). But we haven’t been in this position before, so it’s healthy to try and figure out why we’re going to even bother next year (and some of you won’t, and in some ways I envy you).
The Hawks are going to have some decisions to make this summer, which should make for a really interesting one. But before they make those choices, they have to figure out what they have here first. So at the forwards, the Hawks have to decide what Jonathan Toews is and will be. The general consensus is that he’s done as a #1 center, given his scoring problems the past couple years. I’m not so sure about that, given what the underlying numbers say.
But let’s just give into that for the sake of this. Say Jonathan Toews is a #2 center now. That means the Hawks have to find another #1 center, because you can’t really win without one. None of the recent Cup winners have gone without an ace, and it’s hard to even identify teams that got to a Final. Last year’s Preds, because Johansen was hurt, but he got them most of the way there when he played like one. The Rangers of ’14? The Devils of ’12? And really, that’s about it.
The Hawks don’t have one in the system, a product of drafting 25 or above for so long. The only hope is one Nick Schmaltz, who has had a better year mostly playing center than I thought he would. He’s going to finish with 50-60 points at just 21, and at center which isn’t easy to learn. But what’s the precedent for centers who do that? Luckily, thanks to HockeyReference.com, we can find out.
So here’s the list of centers who had 50-60 points in their age 21 season the past 12 seasons: Ryan Strome, Adam Henrique, Derek Stepan, Bo Horvat, Sasha Barkov, Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Eichel, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Brayden Point, Alex Galchenyuk, Ryan Getzlaf, Logan Couture, Pierre-Marc Bouchard.
For the most part, that’s an encouraging list. There are some names that give you pause of course. Ryan Strome is one, though he’s been on a wing for years now. Bouchard never did much after concussion problems. But other than that, the minimum here is a very solid #2 center.
Does that mean Schmaltz could be the #1 one day? Hard to say. Couture has never had to do it but easily could have. Getzlaf is but that wasn’t his rookie year. Same goes for Eichel and MacKinnon. So that might not be the road for Nick At Nite.
We can safely say that Schmaltz can be a #2 center on a good team. But that doesn’t solve your #1 center problem. Can the Hawks live again with like, three #2 centers? It’s hard to think of anyone who has done it. That’s the most likely trajectory for Schmaltz.
It’s funny, for so long the problem the Hawks had was no #2 center behind Toews when Sharp decided he didn’t want to play center anymore. And now it appears they might have too many.

As is their way, the Hawks ricocheted from being interesting yesterday to incompetent today, managing to dig themselves into a hole from which light could not escape, much less their shitty offensive capabilities. To the bullets:
–Putrid defense put the Hawks down early. In the first Keith got beat on Rakell’s goal, and Jordan Oesterle went full-on Jordan Oesterle and just watched mesmerized as Corey Perry spin-o-rama’d around him for the second goal. On both Pettersson’s and Silfverberg’s goals in the second, I wished Forsberg would have had them, but he was being screened on the former and generally hung out to dry on both. Of course, Forsberg took the heat for all this and got pulled for Berube mid-way through the second. I can’t fault Q for that decision, but at the same time I can’t fault Forsberg for all those goals (winner: most well-worn line this season).
–The Hawks actually did show some life after the goalie switch. They ended the second with a 61.2 CF% and were beating the Ducks in shots thanks to sustained pressure late in the period. Tomas Jurco made himself useful with a couple shots and a redirect of Connor Murphy’s shot for their first goal. So it was nice that the Hawks felt nervous enough to actually try skating after Forsberg got pulled, but we should note that it didn’t come after another eventful moment in the second…
–…And that moment was the Toews-Kesler fight. Now, admittedly I was genuinely laughing out loud as this took place. Normally during theses GRIT HEART FART demonstrations I roll my eyes and complain, but the lack of physicality and the total uselessness of this “battle” was truly hilarious. It did absolutely nothing in terms of FIRING UP the Hawks—in fact they gave up two more goals while Toews was in the box, basically putting the game out of reach before it even got to halfway through the second. Amusing as it was, this fight encapsulated why fighting is dumb and pointless: it doesn’t make guys play better and it lands someone in the box for five minutes. Well done.
–Schmaltz’s first goal in the third was a good case study in persistence. It was also kind of a softie for Gibson, but whatever, I’m going to take what I can get. I’m hoping that as this LONG offseason proceeds, he works on his strength so that he can out-muscle backcheckers just like that all the time. Also, the play of that line (Top Cat-Schmaltz-Hinostroza) on the third goal was lovely, and gives me hope for the future after said offseason.
Whatta weekend, right? It’s been quite a time in California, but now the Hawks are coming home so they can fuck up at the UC for the next week. Now that we know what this season is, and we know what will not be happening come April and May, we can just innocently wonder what each game will bring, because as this road trip showed, you really never know with these assholes. Onward and upward.
Beer de jour (accurate for once as this game was de jour not de nuit): Furious by Surly Brewing (because no two adjectives could describe me better)

vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 28-29-8 Ducks 32-21-12
PUCK DROP: 3:00 PM
TV: NBCSN Chicago
UNDERGROUND DISNEYLAND OVERLORDS: Anaheim Calling
After showing an actual pulse yesterday in the third period, after a comeback we hadn’t seen in a very long while, and after an actually stirring win (though signifying nothing), the Hawks reward is to huff it down the I-5 to Orange County. Almost doesn’t seem fair. Anaheim isn’t a reward for anything.
What the Hawks will find when they get there is much like yesterday, a team clutching the last playoff spot with one or two cla…feet? Beaks? Whatever, carry your own metaphor here. The Ducks are in the last wild card spot, one point ahead of both the Avs and Blues and three ahead of the Flames. They’re four behind the Kings for the right to have another Battle of California in the first round.
It’s been up and down since you last saw Anaheim take a tight one over the Hawks here at the UC 20 days ago. They won the next three in Dallas, Vegas and Minnesota, but then found a way to only find a point in back-to-back games against the Coyotes and Oilers. They bounced back on Thursday with a win over the similarly flailing Blue Jackets.
Not much has changed with the Ducks in that time, roster-wise. GM Bob Murray didn’t think this team was worth investing too heavily into at the deadline, and with good cause. The problems they have–i.e. Cory Perry died, Ryan Getzlaf stopped caring about three seasons ago, and Ryan Kesler is now made of gum and duct tape–aren’t going to be solved by any trade. The Ducks can’t score much thanks to Perry dragging down the top line and Kesler the second, and Adam Henrique on the third can only do so much. But they don’t give up much either, thanks to the sterling form of John Gibson and Randy “Concussions Happen Because The Brain Gets Hot While Wearing A Helmet” Carlyle’s system not really allowing for any adventure on either side. They do that while still playing Kevin Bieksa, which is a hell of an accomplishment.
That’ll make for a real decision for Murray this summer, as Gibson will be heading into the last year of his deal. Thankfully for Murray it’ll only be an RFA problem but we know what starting goaltenders go for. Another big year from Gibson and he could ask for a lot from a team committed to paying their three cadavers at forward $23.4 million from here until The Reckoning.
While the Ducks will be flapping furiously until the end of the season (see what I did there?) to make the playoffs, that’s basically only window dressing for them. This team is most likely first-round cannon fodder for anyone they see, unless Gibson simply goes nuts. They don’t have the front-line scoring as Perry and Getzlaf are just too easily taken out of games now (as they always were in any game that mattered when they could move). Hampus! Hampus! is having a Norris quality season but Carlyle is insisting on playing him with Bieksa now, so what’s that shutting down? Cam Fowler and Brandon Montour aren’t doing that either. Stranger things have happened of course, but don’t bet on it. And once they’re out, this Ducks window is almost certainly closed.
Shouldn’t see too many changes from the Hawks, other than in net where JF Berube will hopefully not have Erik Gustafsson trying to kill him emotionally and physically as he did in San Jose. Q could get cute we guess and start Forsberg again, trying to ride the wave of yesterday. Whatever at this point. More of The Nuclear Option and see just what Carlyle wants to combat that with.
We know most of you are rooting for losses and better drafting position. We don’t blame you. But given how much we hate Anaheim and that they still have something to play for, seeing the Hawks try and build something off of yesterday and making life harder for the Ducks has major appeal. This one won’t be pretty given how the Ducks normally play, their stakes in this one, and the Hawks having played yesterday. But as is always the case in Orange County, just get through it and get the hell out of there as quickly as possible.
Game #66 Preview

Age is a funny thing in professional sports. Now that I’m on the wrong side of 35, I am downright flabbergasted when I see an athlete about my age, or, god forbid, even older. While I spend every day reminding myself that I’m not THAT old, and I make an art form out of raging against the dying of the light, when I see a pro athlete who is no longer a twentysomething, I almost instinctively regard them as a washed-up shell to be treated with suspicion and/or pity, and only in rare cases with respect or admiration for past accomplishments and the ability to overcome the inevitable ravages of time.
The Ducks are a team managing to have both ends of that spectrum, and as fans of a team with an aging core already showing signs of decline, Hawks fans should take note. Who are the washed-up shells? Trade-deadline-acquisition Chris Kelly would have to be at the top of that list. I mean, really, what in the fuck was that all about? Did Bob Murray really think his Olympics performance would make up for being out of the league all season? I know Kelly scored the winning goal in the bronze medal game but it was against a bunch of literal nobodies from the Czech Republic (seriously, Martin Erat was on their team).
The Senators walked away from Kelly before the season started and no one, not even the Oilers, were willing to take this guy for their bottom six. But sure, there can’t be anyone in the Ducks’ AHL affiliate, or at a men’s league somewhere in Irvine for fuck’s sake, who could be had cheaply for the playoff push.
Next would have to be Jason Chimera, who has gone through the looking glass to become the literal embodiment of his name, i.e., a thing that is hoped for that is impossible to make a reality. Chimera’s possession numbers have never been good, and he’s managed a meager two goals all season. He scored 20 goals in his last two seasons with the Islanders and the Capitals, which is the truly shocking thing here. His evaporation back into nothingness is not the surprise—it’s that any team trying to squeeze into the playoffs would waste any energy on him.
Ryan Kesler’s injury isn’t something to be pinned on Murray or the rest of the Ducks organ-I-zation, but it’s emblematic of what comes with an aging team. And Kesler is an example of a guy (33 years old) who isn’t actually a senior citizen in sports terms or otherwise but now seems as good as one with his busted-up hip, that scourge of grandparents everywhere.
On the other side of this nursing home bingo game are guys like Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. Despite having his face pulverized earlier this season, Getzlaf is second in points on the team (although not especially prolific goal-wise). He’s been streaky, but his shooting percentage is a healthy 9.5, his possession numbers are solid (53.1 CF% and a 5.1 CF Rel), and did I mention he’s second in points even though he was out for about six weeks?
Granted, that stat says more about the rest of the Ducks and their scoring malaise than it does about Getzlaf, but you can’t deny he’s making himself useful. Corey Perry is doing the same and is right behind Getzlaf in points, but that is literally the only mildly positive thing I can say about this asshat, so let’s just leave it at that.
The Ducks aren’t the oldest team in the league (haha Red Wings); in fact, they’re the seventh-oldest. But given the uneven nature of older players’ performance and health—not to mention their asinine roster moves making it worse—they’ll need to finally accept that where physical skill is concerned, maturity and experience will not always beat youth and enthusiasm.
Game #66 Preview

A scheduling quirk sees the Hawks play three straight teams that they just played, so here’s the Q&A we did with @MsJenNeale just two weeks ago.
The Ducks have had their injury problems, but are kind of floating in the netherworld below the playoffs and all the metrics suggest that’s about right. Is this where this team should be?
Yes, I would say so. John Gibson is epically average – as I’ve insisted for years. Randy Carlyle is who we thought he was, Mr. Dump ‘n Chase. Kesler is playing at 60% after offseason hip surgery. The Ducks are lucky the rest of the Pacific (sans Vegas) is a dumpster fire or they’d be worse off.
Rickard Rakell is having another big season, though accumulating a fair amount on the power play. Is he or will he be a premier even-strength scorer?
The kid is magical. It depends on if he can stay healthy and who he plays with. Keep him with Getzlaf and he probably starts getting more even strength goals. Lord knows Getzlaf won’t shoot and Perry couldn’t put a beach ball in the net.
Game #66 Preview

Even on a team chock-full of potential douchebags, from Ryan Kesler to Corey Perry and more, it’s hard not to go back to Kevin Bieksa. You already know about his mouthiness—both literally and idiomatically—and his semi-celebrated “Superman Punch” on Radko Gudas earlier in the year, which is par for the course for a league that wants you so desperately to think it’s conscious and aware of the problems that come with concussions without actually having to do anything to eliminate one of the most common causes of concussions. But would you believe that Bieksa is an even bigger douchebag when he’s doing the thing he’s supposedly paid to do?
It’s no huge secret that Bieksa hasn’t been good in about seven years, but since joining Anaheim he’s somehow managed to outdo even his own expected shittiness. First, for this year, he’s scored exactly six points, all assists, and half of them have been secondary assists. Second, he makes just about everyone he plays with worse in terms of possession. Here are the differentials for the guys he’s played most with this year, with and without him.
| TOI WITH | CF% WITH | CF% WITHOUT | DIFFERENTIAL | |
| Cam Fowler | 471:07 | 48.39 | 48 | 0.81% |
| Rickard Rakell | 246:10 | 48.88 | 50.87 | -3.91% |
| Andrew Cogliano | 198:43 | 42.54 | 50.91 | -16.44% |
| Corey Perry | 195:48 | 47.34 | 47.93 | -1.23% |
What a surprise that a guy whose pedigree relies on having more penalty minutes than shots on goal would be able to make so many other players so much worse. Couple that with his glistening -5.4 CF% Rel, and you’ve got a guy who doesn’t do dick in terms of the things that usually matter on the ice. But hey, he’s got 81 PIM and 104 hits on the year, which is totally useful for a team that’s scratching and clawing to keep itself in the playoff hunt.
Bieksa is the kind of player that keeps the rabble both at bay and braying for blood. All he’s good for anymore is picking fights and throwing dangerous punches at other large oafs, and every moment he’s on the ice is a gigantic waste of everyone’s time. Fortunately, it looks like the sun is beginning to set on his Stonehenge-sized jaw, as his playing time has mercifully begun to decrease in favor of the younger, somehow homelier Marcus Pettersson.
If he gets a chance to suit up against the Hawks—and Christ willing he won’t—you can expect him to grunt, grind, and jaw against guys much smaller and more skillful than he, so Alex DeBrincat will likely need to keep his positional awareness extra sharp to avoid any undue meetings with him. This is his last year of his hilarious two-year $4 million-per deal, so with any luck, this will be the last time his oversized yap has the misfortune of gracing our screens as a hockey player.
Game #66 Preview