Game #78 Preview

For the entire length of our existence, a valuable trait has been schadenfreude. We haven’t always needed it, but when we have the Canucks, or Blues, or Detroit, or Canucks again, then the Blues again, have always provided a hearty laugh. We’ve had other targets, but no matter how bad things get for the Hawks or how laughable they are for others, we can redirect that to someone else and have a good chuckle and go on about our day with a bounce in our step.
So let’s spend some time chortling at the existence of the Dallas Stars.
They’ve been in our crosshairs for a few years now. Mostly because for about three or four offseasons, there’s a legion of hockey writers who can’t wait to declare them and GM Jim Nill “winners of the offseason.” It’s like clockwork. One trade, or one signing, and suddenly there’s a puddle around hockey media members as they race to to be the first to decree, “THIS TIME THE STARS GOT IT RIGHT! CAN’T WAIT FOR SOME TEXAS BBQ IN JUNE!” Mostly, I’m guessing, because deep down all Canadian hockey writers are shit-kickers who just want an excuse to break out the cowboy hat and boots they keep in the closet and are desperate to wear outside of one week in Calgary.
Five seasons later, and just one playoff series win, and here they are, likely to not even get a chance to win a playoff series. But how could that happen when they hired noted genius Ken Hitchcock? Certainly the planets must be totally out of line for such a thing to happen! He was the final piece! Everyone said so! Because the Stars did an exhaustive coaching search, y’see, and they oh so creatively came up with, “Hey what about that guy who won here that one time like 15 years ago?”
So how did it end up here, five points out with five games to play even after last night’s OT win over the Flyera? Well, you probably have to start with the goaltending, which has put up a combined .902 SV% in March. That’s not going to win you a lot, as you probably know around here.
And really, who could have seen Ben Bishop’s .911 last year, his .905 in March of last season, and that Tampa was so fond of him they couldn’t wait to shove the job to Andrei Vasilevskiy at the first opening to do so, and conclude that maybe Bishop didn’t have it anymore? Certainly not Jim Nill! And look, the guy who spent three years fucking over the Stars by ignoring the goaltending situation has fucked it over by actually paying attention to it! It just gets better!
Like all Hitchcock teams, the Stars definitely keep it tight in their own end but are hardly expansive in the other. While they’re second best in terms of expected goals per 60 against, they’re 16th in expected goals for. That’s a team with one of the best top lines in the league and hardly bereft of talent farther down the lineup with Spezza (though old), Faksa, Janmark, Shore, and a couple others. At least that’s what they’ve told us season upon season now. And yet past the top line there isn’t a forward with more than 40 points. Hmmmm…who’s the GM who drafted and/or keeps this young talent they keep bleating about that keeps getting them beat, I wonder?
So as always with Hitch’s teams, keeping it so close means your goalie had better match your defensive leanings, and probably be better. Just like Jay Gallon in St. Louis, when the bottom drops out on that there is no answer. Because they’re certainly not filling it enough to counteract some wonky goaltending. At least Lindy Ruff managed that once.
Boy, I can’t wait to see how Nill wins this offseason.
-As we nearer the end, and the broadcast keeps shitting on Brandon Saad because he seems like the easy target (or Adam Burish threatens to fight him, which I’m sure would end with Saad turning Burish’s face into silly putty), I have this really uneasy feeling the Hawks will trade him and get to use “cap relief” as the reason to keep anyone from looking at it with any measure of scrutiny.
Let me just share this with you. When it comes to individual even-strength scoring chances per 60 minutes, Brandon Saad is 12th among forwards. 13th on that list? CONNOR FUCKING MCDAVID. Brandon Saad, himself, is getting slightly more chances per 60 minutes than the best player on the planet. When it comes to high-danger chances per 60 minutes, Saad ranks 10th among all forwards. 9th on the list? TAYLOR FUCKING HALL. A very likely Hart finalist is only slightly outdoing Brandon Saad when it comes to getting really good chances.
Now, it would be folly to suggest that “finish” is purely luck. It is not, but it’s too simple to say, “He’s not scoring enough,” when we can dig deeper and see why he might not be scoring enough. As we’ve said all season, Saad’s shooting percentage has bottomed out, Even a return to last year’s 11.4%, instead of this year’s 7.9, would see Saad with 25 goals right now. And assuming the power play could ever get the toad out of its ass it might be closer to 30.
Saad could simply repeat this season, process-wise, have his SH% spike to 13 or 14% because he got to see a couple more hungover goalies than this season, and be a 30-35-goal guy and then we’d get all these “redemption” stories.
Trading Saad when his value would be at its lowest, unless a monster return, would be monumentally stupid. Remember this when the Hawks now invariably do so.

As we come down the home stretch, the full crew discusses one of the only remaining things left, the bevy of late season call ups and what the portend to next season. As always, the podcast does not require a subscription, grab the audio after the jump.

vs. 
RECORDS: Sharks 43-23-9 Hawks 31-36-9
PUCK DROP: 7:30
TV: NBCSN Chicago
THEY CAN’T AFFORD IT EITHER: Fear The Fin
A friend of the program, one Kevin Kujawa–guitarist and singer for great local band of the past Mannequin Men– used to refer to the first game after the trade deadline as “New Toy Day.” Well, the Hawks didn’t get that this year as it was clearance sale time, but Hawks fans will get some of that this week as the Hawks show off what they hope will be a couple pieces that matter in the future.
The first one arrives tonight in Victor Ejdsell, probably referred to from here on out as “Eggshell.” He’s a big center, whom they’re probably already envisioning taking Anismov’s place so they can punt him to the nearest taker this summer that’s also on his list (YOU’RE ON OUR LIST. HE NAMED NAMES!). Ejdsell comes with plus-hands, so we’re told, though the Hawks are probably already telling him to get his ass to the front of the net which will kneecap his playmaking abilities we’re told he has a bit. Whatever, there will be plenty of time to worry about that next year. The big concern is whether or not he can skate enough to make any of it matter, or if he’s just a monolith the Hawks hope they can park at the other crease but which hurts you in every other aspect. He’d better be the former, otherwise the trade of a definitely useful Ryan Hartman is just simply running in place (because he was a first-round pick at #30, which seemingly everyone evaluating that trade forgot). The Hawks were after Ejdsell when he chose the Predators, and generally the European players they’ve been hot on tend to work out at least ok (Jan Rutta excluded and they’re going to give that one another go anyway).
The other one is Dylan Sikura, who will arrive Thursday. We’ll talk more about him then but he’ll be an interesting watch because he’s got a big chance to more than just ballast on the team next year, even if he’s in desperate need of a sandwich. Just a shame he couldn’t bring Adam Gaudette with him.
As for the rest of the story with the Hawks, there isn’t one really. Toews is still out, with some mystery injury that definitely isn’t either “tired of this shit” or “has been playing with something for months and can’t be bothered anymore but don’t think it’s a head injury” or “we’re actually trying to tank.” After Anton Forsberg looked decent against the Isles he’ll get the start again, but we know what it’s looked like when he’s tried to put two starts together. So JF Berube should probably be properly warmed and stretched, as Q pulls a goalie switch for the 46th time this season.
This game matters a little to the Sharks, though not that much. They’ve pretty much held off either the Kings or Ducks for the second spot in the Pacific, especially with the seven-game winning streak they’re currently on (you can do that?). They’re four up on the Ducks and have a game in hand, and six up on the Kings with a game in hand. So they’ll start the playoffs at home against either, and really they should beat either. But these are the Sharks, and without a healthy Thornton anything is possible for them. Pavelski has been great at center, and that should be enough to see off either of their California brethren. But again, the Sharks have found a way in the past to drive their car into a swimming pool.
After a hiccup around the turn of the year, Martin Jones has been excellent the past two months and the Sharks would enter either series with the better goalie, which is a leg up (sorry Jonathan Quick but we know what you are). While it doesn’t jump out at you, the Sharks are deeper than most teams even without Thornton. Pavelski and Evander “I’m The Other Fuckstick Named…” Kane have been quite the force on the top line, Couture and Hertl have dovetailed on the second line, and Tierney andLeBanc have been a surprise on the third. A Thornton return along with Joonas Donskoi (who’s only day-to-day) only adds to that. They’ll be deeper up front than either the Ducks or Kings, that’s for sure.
You know the story on the blue line. Marc-Eduoard “This Is What Seabrook Was Supposed To Be” Vlasic and Justin Braun are the human shield for Brent Burns on the second pairing, and he simply runs wild. Again, a unique weapon to have. And Brenden Dillon and Dylan “Fine And” DeMelo on the third pairing aren’t really a disaster. Again, sneaky depth.
Even with all that, it’s hard to know if the Sharks are that good. Their special teams for sure are, and that’s gotten them a long way. But this is one of the more boring Sharks teams we can remember, who play in a terrible division and when you watch them nothing really jumps out. Then again, that’s the exact kind of team that comes alive in the playoffs when things get choppier. Secondly, in that division there’s no one who’s going to turn up the pace on them that they can’t handle, which is what Edmonton did last year and the Penguins the year before. You could see if they ran into a misplaced Colorado team in the second round where that could be a problem, but that’s one line and specifically one guy. Vegas, if it somehow shambles its way out of the first round even without Fleury, will see it all pop against the vastly more experienced Sharks. Really, this team merely has to stand still to get to a conference final, where it probably will be laced by Nashville or Winnipeg, assuming there’s anything left of either of those teams after they’re done bludgeoning each other in the second round.
Let’s have fun with our new toys these last two weeks. It’s all we got.
Game #77 Preview

While we’ve highlighted in the past how unique Brent Burns is, he has some of the same issues that Duncan Keith did when he won his second Norris in 2014 (not that it stopped Eddie Olczyk’s campaign for him coming to its triumphant conclusion). Burns is perhaps the most offensively dominant d-man in a long time, and no blue-liner has ever created as many shots and attempts for himself. But Burns partly gets to do that because Marc-Eduoard Vlasic does the heavy lifting for him.
Over the past five seasons, 171 d-men have played at least 3,000 minutes at even strength. Only 20 of them have had worse zone starts than Vlasic. Only three have faced harder competition over the past five years than Vlasic. And yet only one d-men the past five seasons has a better expected goals-percentage than Vlasic, and that’s Jared Spurgeon in Minnesota. With all that, Burns has had a platform to simply run over second and third lines as a Shark. One wonders if he’d be able to do that with the zone starts and competition that Vlasic has taken on for him. We’ll probably never find out.
Vlasic has been the most important Shark, without any of the pub, for years now. It was his injury that turned the series against the Kings in 2014, where they blew a 3-0 lead. Had Vlasic been healthy, they probably find the win they need and that Sharks team could have gone a long way. Much like Keith here in Chicago, when Vlasic has been good, the Sharks have been good and vice versa.
Sadly, he’s probably headed for the Seabrook treatment soon.
Vlasic has a contract extension that starts next year, which sees his cap hit go from $4.2 million per year, one of the biggest bargains in the league, to $7 million per year until 2023-2024. Vlasic will be 31 next year, and while he hasn’t shown his age yet you know that’s coming. IT also comes with a full no-trade. Considering the age of Thornton, Pavelski, and Couture, when the Sharks window closes you can be sure some are going to look at this contract It’s just the nature of the beast.
There are already signs of age. When it comes to Corsi, his relative ratings have dropped to below the team rate the past two seasons, a first for “Pickels.” So has his relative expected goals percentage, which doesn’t give you too much hope for the next six years which he’s signed for. Thee are more shots-against him per 60 than there ever have been, as well as goals-against and expected goals-against. Luckily, while Vlasic has been facing heavier quicksand Burns has been still able to shoot the lights out.
The Sharks don’t have any retired numbers, and you’d figure that Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton will be the first. #44 should join them one day, as they haven’t had a better d-man, or at least as long as Vlasic has been around. That doesn’t mean the end won’t be bumpy.
Game #77 Preview

@ItWasThreeZero always answers our questions about the Sharks. We’d really like to think he has something better to do, but we and he know that he doesn’t.
Ignoring the fact that he’s a raging dickbag, what’s it been like on the ice having Evander Kane?
Kane’s off-ice history of sexual assault makes him an impossible player to cheer for but the on-ice results speak for themselves. With 7 goals and 12 points in 12 games, Kane has been the jolt of offense the Sharks expected when they traded for him and then some. They’d been looking for a Patrick Marleau replacement since the longest-tenured Shark signed in Toronto and at least on the ice they have one in Kane, another big fast winger who can score, kill penalties and fit in on just about any line.
Tomas Hertl has 10 points in his last 11. We’ve sort of been waiting for him to replicate what he looked like as a rookie. Is this it or just another hot streak?
Hertl’s talent level is always on display but the trouble with him over the past few seasons has been finding linemates he can click with. During the Sharks’ 2016 run to the Cup Final, those were Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski but a need to spread out the offense more in Marleau’s absence has meant that’s a line Peter DeBoer hasn’t had the luxury of putting together very often this year. Over the past dozen games, Hertl has slotted in with Logan Couture and Mikkel Boedker on a very potent second line and it looks like he’s found linemates he’s comfortable playing with again.
Is Thornton going to play in the playoffs? What does it mean for his future as a Shark?
No one really seems to have any idea including Thornton himself. But given the fact he played in the majority of last year’s first round loss to Edmonton while both his knees were suspended in Jell-O, it’s going to take a lot to keep Thornton out of the lineup in late April regardless of whether that’s the most medically prudent move at this stage of the 38-year-old’s career. Even if he doesn’t return this season, there’s no indication Thornton intends to retire over the summer so I’m sure he’ll be brought back on a one-year deal with a more modest salary than this year’s $8 million.
How far can the Sharks go in the playoffs? The Pacific is something of a mess…
Their underlying numbers are still fairly middling but the Sharks have been generating a lot more offense in the 2018 calendar year even without Joe Thornton and Joonas Donskoi for much of that time, and despite a once 2nd-ranked power play falling apart. If Thornton and Donskoi can be healthy in time for the playoffs, there’s no reason the Sharks can’t advance to the conference final. They match up against their own division as well as any team in the league. Of course they’re still the Sharks so a first round choke job against the Kings isn’t out of the question either.
Game #77 Preview

The problem with the NHL changing jersey manufacturers all the time, along with many others, is that they can’t seem to resist the temptation to fuck with things that are already working. Look at the Hawks’ collars now if you need evidence of that.
The original Sharks jerseys are nearly perfect, and should have been the template from there on out:

Simple, traditional, perfectly harmonious. A kick-ass logo, a good color scheme, matching stripes on the elbows and waist. Shoulder patches that are different than the logo. Why stray from this at all?
But it’s never that simple is it?
Then came the black alternates, which the Sharks used far too often. Black alternates is the fart joke to jersey design. It’s the simplest choice. Anyone can go to it. It’s boring, it’s been done. And the fact that the Sharks wore them in the playoffs is assuredly the reason they never won anything. You can’t wear your thirds in the playoffs.
Then this abomination:

Where’s the silver go? What the hell is the orange doing in there? Why the number in front? This is a band that’s trying to do too much in a song when it just needs a verse and a chorus. The shoulder patches are the same damn thing as the logo. It’s repetitive. It’s too busy.
And now the Sharks have this. Tell us, is this a Sharks jersey or a Dolphins jersey?

Same damn thing. And still this stupid fucking number in front. How hard is this?
We can go down the list of jerseys the NHL couldn’t help fucking with. The Flames, the Islanders for too long, the Oilers now, whatever the Canucks are doing, and on it goes. What a shame.
Game #77 Preview