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Night Songs – Round 1 Day 11: Oh Bob…You Came And You Turned Into A Turkey…

One blue team showed some zest in staying alive. Another very much did not. So as they said in The Tick, “Well that’s about it for the blue guy.”

Bruins 1 – Leafs 3 (Tied 3-3)

I really want to believe that the Bruins are just doing this to torture torture THE NATION even more than simply paddling this team in four or five games would have done. Because it’s looking an awful lot like 2013 again. The Bruins even threw a 4-1 comeback at them in Game 5 only to fall short.

And yet…and yet, I can’t help but notice every time I look up, Charlie McAvoy–the supposed engine of this Bruins resurgence–is doing a might fine impression of a wavy-arm inflatable balloon man anytime the Leafs enter the zone against him. Can’t help but notice Tuukka Rask, who’s been utterly awful in games the Bruins can end a series, hasn’t looked very good. I can’t help but notice that when the line of Pastrnak-Bergeron-Marchand doesn’t score, the Bruins don’t score all that much, even though everyone told me that they were definitely not a one line team all season.

Still, last night the Bruins were pretty much all over the Leafs most of the game, and Freddie Andersen did that thing where he gets his team just close enough to have a crushing defeat. That’s the most likely outcome still here, especially if the Leafs repeat this thing where they’re getting barely 35% of the attempts. Bergeron’s line running over Plekanec’s time and time again assuredly is going to work out in the black and yellow’s favor sooner rather than later. Though I guess that sooner had better be next game.

Capitals 6 – Jackets 3 (Caps win 4-2)

Given how quickly hockey media loves to quickly and usually unfairly criticize Russian players, it’s kind of amazing they haven’t gotten to this yet: Sergei Bobrovsky sucks in the playoffs. His career save-percentage is .891 in 24 games played. Granted, three of those came against the Penguins and two of them were in series where Columbus was seriously overmatched. You could forgive that a little, though saving an overmatched team is what Bob does for 82 games a year.

But this Jackets team was not overmatched by the Capitals. They may not be as good, but it was pretty close. And in the other net was an untested rookie or a veteran having a very shaky season. And the latter was miles better than Bob. The Caps basically have a top line and Oshie and Backstrom, and yet they scored 22 goals in six games against Bob. On 221 shots, which makes for a .900. His SV% at evens was .925, which is fine, and it was expected to be .919, so he did ok there. but he just fell apart on the kill with a .826. And the Jackets were not giving up great chances there.

It’s not like Columbus is going to make a change in net, but this should be an issue next year when you think they’re going to really want to do something other than be the chorus girls for the show before shuffling offstage again.

April 24, 2018
You Get What Anyone Gets: Saying Goodbye To The Philadelphia Flyers

It used to be tradition that playoff exits were complimented by eulogies on Puck Daddy. But with Wysh off in the Connecticut hinterlands and those who remain at Yahoo! being a bunch of Canadian giblets who take things far too seriously (and Lambert being angry and definitely not a Bruins fan), we don’t need them to do what we do best. So fuck it. We’ll eulogize all 15 teams that will eventually fall. And now, to the routine of Western PA…

If I were to ask you to sketch out what a Philadelphia Flyers crash-out would look like, you almost certainly would have presented something that looked a lot like yesterday afternoon. Even if the Flyers haven’t done this as much recently as their reputation suggests, you would know exactly what it looks like.

They would take a lead in the second period. They would be running all over the place trying to hit everything that moves, including their captain boiling over. Their crowd would be in a frenzy. They would be on the cusp of a real breakthrough by sheer fury. And then their superior opponent would inhale deeply and say, “Ok, enough of this bullshit.” Then there would be defensive breakdowns everywhere. They would treat the puck like it was covered in space herpes. Their goalie would have an existential crisis and have to stay in because the one on the bench is an existential crisis. They would give up an avalanche of goals in like four minutes, and then it would be over. Their still-Super-Bowl-drunk fans would hurl whatever garbage was hurl-able onto the ice, as the only garbage they couldn’t throw was themselves. But they’ll figure that out one day. It was ever thus.

It wouldn’t be complete without Flyers fans conspiracy/inferiority complex shining through, which I guess is what happens when your city is wedged between a bunch of other cities people would rather go to and your weather level switches from winter to sweat. By the time October rolls around, Flyers fans will have convinced you that the trip on Sean Couturier leading to Guentzel’s goal was a crime on the level of various Kennedy assassinations, even though Couturier looked like he was trying to moonsault a ghost and probably was having trouble standing up anyway thanks to his own teammate shredding his knee in practice. Something about Philadelphia and practice.

Only an organization and institution this rockheaded could just wave away their dumber version of Rocksteady and Bebop d-man, Radko Gudas, handicapping their #1 center in practice because “THEY’RE SO TOUGH.” This is a place that wears it as a badge of honor that they get their sandwiches out of a fucking gas station. You’d think the Flyers would know that running around and grabbing your sac for a whole game eventually is going to leave your defense and your goalie exposed, and yet they dive headlong into it every time. In Philadelphia it’s always 1976.

Lots of people will tell you Cold Ones have a bright future ahead of them. And they do, if you think being the Maple Leafs is a bright future. They could be loaded at forward in two years, but have exactly one d-man worth a shit in Ivan Provorov, assuming Gudas hasn’t broken his will to live by passing him another hand grenade when he’s already covered. If this series proved anything it’s that Ghost Bear is just a cooler name for Marc-Andre Bergeron (stick tap to Anthrax for that one).

And the Flyers will continue to have a Gudas on their roster, because it’s what they do. Fuck, you can totally see Roman Polak ending up here when he’s finally forced out of the loving arms of Mike Babcock. If we can get Gudas and Polak on the same pairing we actually would have Rocksteady and Bebop on an NHL team.

And when it all goes belly up again because wearing orange turns every goalie into an actual traffic cone, there will be Claude Giroux yapping and running around like a frat boy on a coke binge, without actually scoring any goals that might help his team get anywhere. In his last 19 playoff games Giroux has three goals. But man, he sure got all of Carl Hagelin eight seconds after the puck was gone, didn’t he? And in the end, isn’t that the real truth? The answer, is no. Giroux joins the unfathomably long list of ultra talented Flyers that the city and fans turned into a slobbering dingus with granite for brains and then hands when it matters most.

So long to the Flyers, who definitely are the Flyers more than anyone has ever been anything else. It’s reassuring in a way, the dedication to their character. If the NHL were a movie they would be the scenery chewers. They live in this role and always have, and always will. And it’s always good comedy.

April 23, 2018
You Get What Anyone Gets: Saying Goodbye To The Minnesota Wild

It used to be tradition that playoff exits were complimented by eulogies on Puck Daddy. But with Wysh off in the Connecticut hinterlands and those who remain at Yahoo! being a bunch of Canadian giblets who take things far too seriously (and Lambert being angry and definitely not a Bruins fan), we don’t need them to do what we do best. So fuck it. We’ll eulogize all 15 teams that will eventually fall. Now, a rite of spring…

Actually, that picture should probably portray Zach Parise as Death, because today he turned a new trick by expanding on getting his coaches fired by getting his GM fired, and a big reason is the contract Parise signed. Good stuff, that.

Whereas there was joy in kicking dirt all over the bloated corpses of the Ducks and Kings, sending the Wild out with a quiet word is really just a reflex of the spring. About the only thing they provided was quality #BoudreauFace during these playoffs, as it quickly became obvious to him and everyone else his team was just ridiculously overmatched. If any player turned around on the bench and saw the expression of their coach it would have been an upset if they hopped over the boards ever again.

But this is what you sign up for when you have Boudreau behind the bench. Since he left the Capitals, his Ducks and Wild teams have these great seasons that take place almost entirely in the dark. You check the standings every few weeks and your reaction is always, “Huh, how’d they get there?” Because you wouldn’t ever choose to watch them. And then you go on about your life only to repeat the process a few weeks later. Then, when the playoffs start and you really pay attention, you really wonder how they hell they finished where they did, at least you do for the six minutes the Wild are around in the playoffs.

Once again, Devan Dubnyk was the second-best goalie in a series, just as he was in ’15, and ’16, and last year. And you have to hand it to him, because he’s been the second-best goalie in a series to a wild variety of other goalies, from one of the league’s best (Crawford) to genuinely terrible goalies (Niemi and Lehtonen) to absolute basketcases (Jake Allen) and now a young one in his first playoff series (Hellebuyck). He is wonderful talent enhancement.

It was another year of writers marveling at what a defensive wizard Mikko Koivu is in the dregs of February, and then watching him get turned into dog food in the playoffs. A 41% Corsi for the series, reminding us once again he’s a million years old and the Wild have yet to produce a center that’s really any better than him. The State of Hockey is one of paralysis. If Beckett had been around now he would have written a sequel to Godot about the Wild and waiting for anything or anyone of consequence to happen.

It’s really hard to stress just how much the Wild, a 100-point team somehow, got their ass handed to them in five games. No player achieved a positive possession rating over five games, and this was to a franchise that had never won a playoff series before. This might not even count, considering the cannon fodder the Wild were. It’s like counting something in the Home Run Derby as your first major league hit.

And the thing is, the Wild aren’t going to change. They can’t. They have to find the money to pay Dumba and Zucker, and that will be that. They won’t have any flexibility to do anything else, and they’ll roll out the exact same team next year that will amass around 100 points thanks to Gabby’s “Go get ’em, scouts!” system that sees them play really hard when no one cares. And we’ll get more and more articles of “Boudreau does it again! What a magician!”

And then April rolls around, they’ll face a good team that cares again and they’ll get walloped. We’ll get shots of Boudreau behind the bench, the definition of “out of answers,” and he’ll basically be the same shade as Grimace (and shape) by Game 4. His career playoff winning percentage is .478. But hey, he talks to the media and is kind of adorable, so let’s just ignore the fact that he’s almost certainly a moron.

There’s a lesson to the Wild. Constancy. Some teams just have to fill out the numbers, to perform the same cycle over and over to make the ones who change stand out. They’re the backup singers doing the same dance routine every night while Jagger is out front. They help hit the harmonies for the rest of the league, and then fade into the background when the important notes are sung. They are water carriers. Good things there’s a lot of it in Minnesota.

April 23, 2018
Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My…-FFUD’s Player Reviews: Brent Seabrook or Maybe He’s Not Earthquake?

It’s been a while now that Brent Seabrook has been our main punching bag. He actually started this slide years ago, in the lockout season if you’ll recall. He redeemed himself with THAT goal, and then THAT OTHER goal, and was mostly fine in the playoffs, but he did not have a good season. We blamed it on the nature of the campaign and not playing during the lockout. He wasn’t really any better the following year, and the Kings tore him apart in the conference final, scoring roughly 64 rebound goals while Seabrook watched alongside the rest of us. He rebounded in the last championship campaign, and was pretty much a monster alongside Duncan Keith’s Conn Smythe journey.

And that’s basically where it peaked. Seabrook isn’t the first to lose their battle with Time, and he obviously won’t be the last. It was particularly ugly at times this year, and we and others certainly didn’t hesitate to call it out.

The thing was, it might not have been that bad?

Brent Seabrook

81 games, 7 goals, 19 assists, 26 points, -3, 38 PIM

51.4 CF%, -1.36 CF% rel, 49.0 xGF%, -0.65 xGF% rel, 55.8 Zone Start Ratio

The problems for Seabrook were myriad, but the main one seemed to be that the Hawks didn’t know where to slot him. His pairing with Duncan Keith, the foundation on which this whole thing was built for only about eight years, just didn’t work. Keith doesn’t have the quickness to cover for Seabrook’s mobility that disappeared somewhere in 2016. Seabrook couldn’t cover for a recalibrating Keith. Mostly, it was just ugly, and it’s why of the d-men Seabrook played with his pairing with Keith had the worst metrics (48.5 CF%).

But on the flip side, for the entire middle portion of the season his pairing with Connor Murphy did work. Murphy wasn’t nearly as adventurous as Keith, so he was in better position to cover. Murphy allowed Seabrook to still do some of his cowboy act, which has always been part of his game. Together, they pushed the play the right way (53.0 CF%, 56.5 SCF%).

The numbers with Erik Gustafsson aren’t as good overall as they were with Murphy, but they’re still on the plus-side of the ledger and we all saw how it ended the season. Now, at the end of a season when all is lost probably isn’t the best time to judge things, but Gustafsson’s “Three Musketeers In One” act kept Seabrook in a strictly support role, which is probably what he should be doing. Seabs can’t go cruising up the ice where he’ll never get back if Gustafsson is leading rushes himself. And we know Gustafsson isn’t getting back. It’s hard to say if this is a a solution in the future or just something a flawed team came up with in the death throes of a season everyone wanted over.

The problems are obvious. Seabrook can’t move, and even his passing–still top level–is nullified when he can’t even give himself the time and space to execute it. He still wants to be as aggressive as he was, but he simply can’t. The times when he realized that and played a more reserved game, it was actually ok. It just didn’t happen enough.

Outlook: Both Seabrook and the Hawks have to accept what he isn’t anymore and figure out what he should be. Seabrook hasn’t quite adjusted his game the way Keith was at least trying to at times, and he’s going to have to. Ideally, on a team that has any hope of doing anything, he’s your third-pairing rock. He can still be your triggerman on the second power play unit, assuming you have two real-ass QBs for each (the Hawks don’t have one at the moment). If you absolutely have to you can probably get away with Seabrook taking #4 minutes, but your first three had better be something special. That doesn’t look like happening. Seabrook is cut out for the glorified Sopel/Rozsival role of years past. It’s up to the Hawks to find enough to get him there, and it’s up to Seabrook to accept that.

April 23, 2018
Night Songs – Round 1 Day 10: An Ice Water Fountain of Urine

The two teams that were supposed to win won, in mostly convincing fashion. Let’s do a quick clean up.

Penguins 8 – Flyera 5 (Penguins win series 4–2)

Only in Philadelphia can a game that had two hat tricks—one being the four-goal variety and the other coming from a guy with a frayed MLC—be overshadowed by, well, anything. But to no one’s surprise, the Flyera faithful became the old sports cliché of leaving a piece of yourself on the ice, pelting players with trash, and half-full cans of Yuengling and whatever other canal runoff they drink. Hilariously, the complete toddler meltdown that is fandom in Philly led to Pittsburgh’s final empty netter, as a rogue towel in front of Provorov led him to turn the puck over to Brandon Rust for the final dagger.

Guentzal’s four consecutive goals and Couturier’s hat trick despite his torn MCL were the undercard on the night. Pittsburgh will probably get extended time to wash the garbage out of their hair, because you know the Caps/BJs series is going to seven.

Predators 5 – Avalanche 0 (Predators win series 4–2)

Not the way you want to go out at home, but there probably wasn’t a bigger mismatch in all of the playoffs than this series. But when it really mattered, Nashville got up and Dammit Doll’d the Avs. There may have been whispers about Nashville not having “it” against the Avs in this series, but last night’s drubbing ought to put that to rest.

There really isn’t much to say about a 5–0 shutout. Shit Hip continues to defy his age, and the Bonino–Sissons–Watson line continues to impress in the playoffs. Whether we like it or not, Nashville can be an overpowering team when it needs to be, which will make the matchup with Winnipeg probably some of the best hockey we’ll see in the playoffs.

With the way things have gone in the NHL this year, the Preds and Jets will mash each other to a pulp, then the winner will have to play a well-rested Knights, fresh off a sweep against the Sharks, because fuck you. Then the Knights will find themselves as an expansion team in the Stanley Cup while the rest of us drink hemlock and/or eat Arby’s.

April 23, 2018
High On The Hog: Doubling Down On The Wolves
The Rockford IceHogs got their Calder Cup quest off to a flying start over the weekend. Coming into the postseason as the fourth seed in the Central Division, the piglets sent quite the opening salvo against the Chicago Wolves.

Silencing most of Chicago’s big offensive guns, the IceHogs raced out to a 2-0 series lead, taking Game 1 in Rosemont as well as Game 2 at the BMO Harris Bank Center. The Hogs gave as good as they got on the physical side and bested the Wolves special teams in both outings.

Rockford can close out the Wolves Thursday night at Allstate Arena. I’d imagine we’ll see a desperate Chicago club defending their home turf in Game 3. However, the IceHogs showed that they are capable of turning away the Wolves offensive attack when needed.

Yes, Teemu Pulkkinen got a puck past Collin Delia this weekend. However, he had to knock a puck out of mid-air to do so. Brandon Pirri was held without a point in the two games, as was Wolves captain Paul Thompson. Beau Bennett, another top point producer who was held off the score sheet, left Saturday’s 2-1 win by Rockford with an apparent hand injury. He didn’t play in Game 2.

Delia, starting his first two postseason games in the AHL, made key stops when the Wolves did manage to create legit scoring chances. Defensively, Rockford was adept at breaking up potential rushes in neutral ice.

The IceHogs got seven goals from seven different skaters in Games 1 and 2. Leading the way was the trio of veterans who put a charge into the Rockford lineup in the final months of the season.

Defenseman Adam Clendening scored the game-winner in Chicago and totaled four points (1 G, 3 A) for the weekend. Chris DiDomenico (1 G, 2 A) and Cody Franson (3 A) also figured heavily into the wins.

Excepting the first seven or eight minutes of the opening game Saturday, Rockford has been in control of the action on the whole. As expected, the IceHogs have become a difficult opponent to play at just the right time of the spring.

In a series where the penalty minutes are up a bit, Rockford has taken advantage. The Hogs found cord on five of twelve power play chances. The first unit, featuring Clendening and Franson, has four of those goals.

Weekend Observations
- In true playoff fashion, some big hits were delivered on both sides. As you might expect, players like Andreas Martinsen and John Hayden were making their presence felt. In addition, William Pelletier, who at 5’7″ was a frequent target in the regular season, finished some checks with a little snarl.
- Chicago’s Brett Sterling attempted to sell a high-sticking infraction by Matthew Highmore in the first period Saturday night. The Wolves broadcast team bemoaned the lack of a call, but the replays showed that Highmore’s stick was never in the same zip-code as the veteran winger’s chin.
- Bennett is a big loss for Chicago if he continues to miss action Thursday. Meanwhile, Tanner Kero returned from an injury and played Sunday for the IceHogs. A deep Rockford team gets a little deeper.
- The 5,000-plus at the BMO got to their feet when the IceHogs killed the Chicago 5-on-3 to remain up a goal early in the second period on Sunday. It was the turning point of the game, no question.
Recaps

Saturday, April 21-Rockford 2, Chicago 1

Special teams decided the opening game of the series. The Hogs got two power play goals and made that stand up to take Game 1 on the road.

The Wolves were all over the Rockford zone in the first period, creating chance after chance that either missed the net or was turned away by Hogs goalie Collin Delia. The Wolves were denied on 16 attempts in the opening period.

Rockford gained a 1-0 advantage on the game’s first power play. As he has done with regularity, Cody Franson waited at the left dot for Adam Clendening’s pass. The shot was deflected by Tyler Sikura, off Chicago goalie Oscar Dansk’s glove and into the Wolves cage at 9:44 of the first.

A slashing call against Beau Bennett put the Hogs on the man advantage early in the second period. Rockford converted on the chance when Clendening sent a wrist shot through traffic and past Dansk for a 2-0 IceHogs lead at the 2:05 mark.

The home team was able to get on the scoreboard five minutes into the final frame. Teemu Pulkkinen, with the Wolves on the power play, was in front of the net when a Zac Leslie shot came off of Delia’s pads. The talented forward batted the puck into the net from just under crossbar height to cut the Rockford lead to 2-1 with 14:29 remaining in the contest.

On a night where neither club could find twine at even strength, the Hogs made their pair of goals stand up. The Wolves put on a frantic effort in the final minutes with Dansk on the bench to no avail.

Delia wound up with 31 saves on 32 shots. Clendening, with a goal and an assist on the evening, was named the game’s first star, followed by Franson and Leslie.

Lines (Starters in italics)

Lance Bouma-David Kampf-Matthew Highmore

Victor Edjsell-Chris DiDomenico-Anthony Louis

John Hayden-Tyler Sikura-Andrea Martinsen

Alexandre Fortin-Luke Johnson-William Pelletier

Viktor Svedberg (A)-Cody Franson (A)

Carl Dahlstrom-Adam Clendening

Gustav Forsling-Darren Raddysh

Collin Delia

Power Play (2-6)

DiDomenico-Sikura-Johnson-Franson-Clendening

Highmore-Louis-Kampf-Edjsell-Dahlstrom

Penalty Kill (Wolves were 1-5)

Sikura-Martinsen-Svedberg-Franson

Johnson-Kero-Dahlstrom-Clendening

Hayden-Bouma-Forsling-Raddysh

Sunday, April 22-Rockford 5, Chicago 2

Rockford broke open a close game in the second period. Once again, most of the damage was done while up a man.

The Wolves took a 1-0 lead midway through the first when Wade Megan put back a rebound left by Hogs goalie Collin Delia off a Zac Leslie shot. At the 13:24 mark, William Pelletier returned the favor, scoring his first goal of the postseason to tie the score.

There was much action in the final minute of the opening frame. The Hogs power play notched a goal when Luke Johnson pounced on a Cody Franson shot that rebounded off the pads of Chicago goalie Oscar Dansk. Rockford led 2-1 at 19:08 of the first, but that lead proved to be short-lived.

As the final seconds were ticking away in period one, Dansk got an outlet pass to T.J. Tynan coming into the Hogs zone. Delia stopped the resulting shot, but Leslie followed up by knocking the rebound into the Rockford net just before the clock ran out.

The 2-2 contest was decided in the middle 20; Rockford got the eventual game-winner from Matthew Highmore 3:47 into the second. The rookie received a pass from Victor Ejdsell at the left circle and sent a shot off of the arm of Dansk and into the net.

From there, the key stretch involved special teams. The Hogs killed off a two-man Wolves advantage, then found themselves on a 5-on-3 of their own ten minutes later. At the 16:04 mark, Chris DiDomenico got open in the slot, took a feed from Ejdsell, and cued the horn for Rockford’s third power play tally of the game. The IceHogs led 4-2.

The third period was controlled by Rockford, who held the desperate Wolves to just three shots on goal. Lance Bouma added an empty net goal with 39 seconds to go, slamming the door on Chicago.

Delia earned first star honors with his 28-save performance. DiDomenico and Clendening rounded out the three stars.

Lines (Starters in italics)

Lance Bouma-David Kampf-Matthew Highmore

Victor Edjsell-Chris DiDomenico-Anthony Louis

John Hayden-Tyler Sikura-Andrea Martinsen (A)

Tanner Kero-Luke Johnson-William Pelletier

Viktor Svedberg (A)-Cody Franson (A)

Carl Dahlstrom-Adam Clendening

Gustav Forsling-Darren Raddysh

Collin Delia

Power Play (3-6)

DiDomenico-Sikura-Johnson-Franson-Clendening

Highmore-Louis-Kampf-Edjsell-Dahlstrom

Penalty Kill (Wolves were 1-5)

Sikura-Martinsen-Svedberg-Franson

Johnson-Kero-Dahlstrom-Clendening

Hayden-Bouma-Forsling-Raddysh

Rockford can advance to the second round with a win Thursday night at Allstate Arena. Follow me @JonFromi on twitter for updates on the action in Game 3.
April 23, 2018
Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews – Connor Murphy Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Our Large Irish Son

When the Hawks brought Connor Murphy in, he was the presumptive favorite to replace the puck-pocked husk of what was once Niklas Hjalmarsson. And as the season went on, and the Hawks found their heads deeper and deeper in the toilet, the narrative began to range from “the Hawks will need a Top 4 defenseman next year” (true) to “the Hawks really miss Hjalmarsson this year” (categorically false in terms of on-ice performance).

After some early season struggles, a few confounding healthy scratches, and a mostly successful experiment on his off side, Murphy settled in to produce a couple of interesting career highs and team rankings. Let’s kick it.

Connor Murphy

76 GP, 2 Goals, 12 Assists, 14 Points, -3, 34 PIM

53.44 CF% (Evens), 1.2 CF% Rel (Evens), 53.47 SCF% (5v5), 51.57 xGF% (5v5), 2.99 xGF% Rel (5v5)

50% oZ Start (Evens)

What We Said: Behind Keith and—if you look at him with enough glare from the sun—Seabrook, Murphy is probably the Hawks’s third best D-man. He’s fine if not underwhelming for the price ($3.85 million cap hit), but on the edge of 24, he will need to prove that his numbers really are the result of playing in America’s chafe rather than wasted potential. Given that the Hawks have won three Cups on the backs of their defensemen . . . Murphy will need to develop into a shutdown D-man fast.

What We Got: We’ll start with some numbers (feel free to skip the bullets if all you want is the explanation).

– Murphy posted an even-strength CF% of 53.44, finishing above water for the first time since his rookie year. Of Hawks D-men who played at least 20 games, he finished fourth, behind Franson (59.91), Gustafsson (55.39), and Kempný (53.95). If you bump the minimum threshold up to 40 games, Murphy is your leader in CF% for Hawks D-men.

– His 1.2 CF% Rel was only the second time he’s been in the positives on that ledger (1.0 last year). Of all Hawks defensemen who played at least 20 games, only Franson (9.2), Gustafsson (6.6), and Kempný (1.4) had higher CF% Rels. Again, bumping the threshold up to 40 games, Murphy’s your D-man leader for the Hawks.

– The caveat there is that Franson, Gustafsson, and Kempný started in the offensive zone at respective rates of 65.8%, 57.4%, and 55.4% to Murphy’s 50%.

– Murphy also finished with a High Danger Chances For Percentage (HDCF%) of 48.56. That’s fourth among Hawks D-men with at least 20 games—behind Kempný (52.86), Franson (52.34), and Gustafsson (50.59)—and above the team rate of 47.11. Once again, bumping the threshold to 40 games, Murphy leads all Hawks D-men.

– Murphy finished fourth in Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%; 51.57) among Hawks D-men who played at least 20 games (behind Franson, Kempný, and Gustafsson). When bumped up to 40 games, Murphy was the leader.

– Finally, Murphy finished third in Expected Goals For Percentage Relative (xGF% Rel; 2.99) among Hawks D-men who played at least 20 games (behind Gustafsson and Franson). When bumped to 40 games, he’s the leader again.

All of this is to say that in terms of possession, Murphy was good if not great overall. He was better than the Hawks’s average in terms of giving up high-danger chances, but not great in a vacuum. And when he was on the ice, the Hawks could have expected more goals for than against.

That said, one of Murphy’s glaring weaknesses, especially at the beginning and end of the year, was his struggle to clear the puck in his own zone under pressure.

The above graph, which was tracked by Corey Sznajder, tells us that of these nine Blackhawks, only Brent Seabrook had more failed zone exits per 60 minutes of play. This means that the opposition was more likely to sustain pressure when Murphy had the puck in his own zone, which, of course, tends to lead to more opportunities to score goals. And while these data aren’t comprehensive (only tracked through 38 games), it does give us a good sample size for what’s pretty obvious through the eye test: When Murphy was pressured in his own zone, he sometimes panicked.

While Murphy absolutely must keep his spurs from jingling and jangling in his own zone if he’s going to develop into a true Top 4 shutdown D-man, it’s hard to ignore the carousel of D-men he was jerked around with this year and wonder whether that affected his play.

Murphy played primary time with five different defensemen this year.

All stats 5v5

Given how often he got jerked around, including playing his off side in his 25 games with Seabrook, one thing that stands out is the relative consistency in his possession numbers, aside from Keith. And despite the fact that the Hawks were the seventh worst team in giving up High Danger Chances, Murphy still managed well when away from Oesterle and Keith.

But therein lies the problem: Since the assumption is that Keith takes on the toughest competition (and he usually does), Murphy’s piss-poor numbers with him might suggest that he isn’t a Top 4 guy like Hjalmarsson was.

But this dovetails nicely with the overall point I want to make: The Murphy-for-Hjalmarsson trade wasn’t the loss for the Hawks some people want to say it is, and having Hjalmarsson over Murphy would have made things worse, not better.

Check out some of Hjalmarsson’s numbers when he played with Keith over his Hawks career:

All Stats 5v5

Like Murphy, Hjalmarsson had a rough go of it in the first 100 or so minutes with Keith, and that was when Keith was starting to go full Oppenheimer on the league. Coincidentally, it wasn’t until Hjalmarsson turned 25 that things really started to click any time he played with Keith, and next year Murphy will be 25.

Clearly, this is simply a coincidence, as raw age will have no effect on how (or whether) Murphy plays with Keith going forward. But this idea that Murphy doesn’t have Top 4 potential because he didn’t play well with a declining Keith over seven games this year is one of the more confusing implications I’ve heard this year.

The last point I’ll make regarding the implication that the Murphy-for-Hjalmarsson trade was a loss for the Hawks and that the Hawks miss Hjalmarsson is this:

Using more of Sznajder’s tracking data, it’s obvious that Murphy brought more to the table for the Hawks than Hjalmarsson did for the Coyotes this year. One of the two things that Hjalmarsson did that was marginally better was in terms of the breakups he caused at the blue line, preventing opponents from entering the zone with possession. (Note: They only tracked Hjalmarsson for 10 games this year against Murphy’s 38, so consider the sample size.)

Going even farther—because I have no sense of moderation whatsoever—even when comparing this year’s Murphy to last year’s Hjalmarsson, the differences aren’t as big as you’d think, mostly:

So even when we recognize and admit that Murphy had trouble with his exits from his own zone, the revisionist history that Hjalmarsson was an indispensable cog whose absence contributed to this year’s downfall doesn’t really hold water. Last year’s Hjalmarsson certainly had a better performance in terms of breakups and the percentage of entries he allowed, but he did it primarily with a not-yet-in-full-decline Duncan Keith covering him (or vice versa). Murphy spent most of his time with the glob of ambergris that is Brent Seabrook.

In short, Murphy had a good year with the Hawks despite his coach’s best efforts to jerk him around, was better than Hjalmarsson would have been, and stayed generally consistent despite spending almost a third of his year on his off side babysitting Seabrook. He’ll never be a game breaker, but he doesn’t have to be.

Where We Go From Here: Connor Murphy ought to open next year next to either Keith or Erik Gustafsson. If the Hawks are going to look at Keith as a Top Pairing Guy next year (they probably shouldn’t), they have to give him someone to cover his ass when his brain says he can make a play but his feet disagree, as we saw more often this year. I’d argue that Murphy, more than Oesterle, is that guy, despite how poorly they played together last year.

Whether you think Gustafsson is a second pairing guy is a conversation for another day (for the record, I can see it if I squint, and I’m willing to try it). But what’s undeniable is that in 135 minutes together at 5v5, Murphy and Gustafsson had a 57+ CF% while starting in the offensive zone at a 49.45% rate. With Murphy and Gustafsson entering their primes at 25 and 26, and each having paper that runs at least through 2020, pairing them might be worth an extended look, but it probably requires outside help to pair with Keith.

If the Hawks manage to sign a guy like John Carlson, or swing a trade for an OEL, Darnell Nurse, Justin Faulk, or maybe Oscar Klefbom, you’ll feel more comfortable about having the new guy and Keith as the top pairing, with Murphy covering Gustafsson. Or, you can pair the new guy with Murphy on the top pairing. This would let Keith slot in the second pairing with some iteration of Gustafsson on his off side, Forsling on his off side, Jokiharju (which is probably too much to ask), or Oesterle, because you know that’s going to happen again, despite our wailing.

Regardless, the Hawks have to saddle Murphy with more responsibility next year, whether they like it or not. The Hawks have a Top-4-potential guy in Murphy, and when he wasn’t getting the runaround, he showed flashes of it last year. Whether they use him that way is anyone’s guess.

All stats from hockey-reference.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, or corsica.hockey, unless otherwise noted.

April 20, 2018
Night Songs – Round 1 Day 9: When The Chips Are Down, They’ll Eat Each Other

Let’s just dive right in because I want to get right to it.

Bruins 3 – Toronto Red Sox 1 (BOS leads 3-1)

That’s what they’ve become. The Leafs are now the pre-2004 Red Sox. It’s not enough for them to lose because quite simply they’re not good enough and have been just a little strangely put together. Because the Red Sox rolled out some good, not great, teams from the late 90s to the early 2000s, ones that could make the playoffs, but ones that were never near good enough to beat the Yankees or even Cleveland.

No, it’s about how their fans and media demand to be center stage, so that they make sure everyone can see just how tortured they are and how make it clear just how much everyone hates them when really we just want them to shut up. Their coverage spikes because they’re the most followed team, and when they’re done (which is very soon) the story isn’t about who will win the Cup but about what will the Leafs do in the offseason. And they’re sure you care, and if you don’t they’ll make sure that you do, and if you still don’t then clearly there’s something wrong with you. It’s become where the league simply exists to be a platform for the Leafs. Everything is against them don’t you know, even when everything is for them.

Recall one of the thousands of cheap Family Guy cutaways about two guys writing on their laptops in a coffee shop. And more than concern with actually writing, they constantly check to make sure the other is watching them write so that it’s clear they are writers to the other. That’s Leafs fans, except it’s stabbing themselves in the chests figuratively (and I can only hope it stays figuratively). “Is everyone watching me cut my heart out? Because that’s what it’s like being a Leafs fan! Are you watching? See how I’m bleeding? Are you watching how hard this is. It’s so hard can’t you see?!”

Quite simply, the Leafs got goalie’d last night, nothing more nothing less. And it happens. It happens when your masked man is Freddie Andersen, who has years of evidence that he’s just not quite up to it when the lights are brightest that THE NATION just chose to ignore. Rask’s pedigree is so far beyond him it’s laughable. In pretty much every series, each team will have a game where they get goalie’d. It’s why sweeps are so rare. It’s getting beyond that which is the true test.

It didn’t stop their coach from calling out his star, who only put up a 65% share last night, and chumming the waters for his braindead fanbase. I can only hope Auston Matthews sees all this and decides this is bullshit he doesn’t need for his career and asks out. It’s what Leafs fans would deserve.

They’d all rather be watching the Marlies anyway.

Capitals 4 – Jackets 1 (Tied 2-2)

When playing a team as mentally fragile as the Capitals, and you have them down 2-0 and heading home, and after they’d blown leads in the first two games, you wouldn’t think you’d come out and be on the tame side in front of your own crowd that’s never seen you win a series. But then, you’re not John Tortorella. If the Jackets lose this series he should be canned before they even leave the arena, but I doubt that’ll happen.

While the Jackets don’t have the world’s greatest set of forwards, with a team this much on the mat you’d send out your stall to tear into what is still no a great Caps blue line. Trade chances with them if you have to, because once Ovechkin is off the ice what really scares you? Get the Caps down early, get your building into a frenzy, because we know Washington needs only the slightest push to decide they’ve had enough. But no, that’s not how Torts works when he’s focused on getting everyone to block shots.

Honestly, I hope the Caps win this series. They took enough shit in the first two games and a third straight pile-driver to the Penguins would be even more entertaining. Or finally getting over them would be too. Either way, it’s clear we don’t need Columbus around.

April 20, 2018
You Get What Anyone Gets: Saying Goodbye To The Anaheim Ducks

It used to be tradition that playoff exits were complimented by eulogies on Puck Daddy. But with Wysh off in the Connecticut hinterlands and those who remain at Yahoo! being a bunch of Canadian giblets who take things far too seriously (and Lambert being angry and definitely not a Bruins fan), we don’t need them to do what we do best. So fuck it. We’ll eulogize all 15 teams that will eventually fall. Today, perhaps our favorite target…

Here’s a stat for you: Four games, no goals, 25 shots.

That’s what Ryan Kesler, Corey Perry, and Ryan Getzlaf put up in their four-game surrender to the San Jose Sharks this past week. And that’s still what the Ducks forward group pivots around. It would seem their 2011-2013 Canucks cosplay is now complete, and we can look forward to the Ducks fading into Bolivia next year. Hey, Alain Vigneault is available!

And I get the impression that’s what they would prefer. We used to greatly enjoy the Ducks yearly capitulation in Game 7s at home, after leading 3-2. Then we marveled at it. Then we just accepted it as a rite of spring, right alongside canceled home games for the Cubs and Sox, summer beers hitting the shelves, and maybe one pothole in your zip code getting fixed.

But I figured something out watching this team last night. They want to lose. They don’t want to be in Orange County any longer than they have to. Think about it. You can’t lose that many series from winning positions unless deep down somewhere inside of you that’s really what you want. There are no accidents, Freud. Which tells you just how bad the Oilers have to be because even with the Ducks actively trying to end their own season, the Oilers couldn’t walk through the very opened door.

Go back and look in their faces. They hate being Ducks. Because really, what’s the appeal? Oh sure, the sun and warmth? Would you really trade that to have to live in Anaheim? It’s San Diego without the whimsy. And San Diego is just Boston without the winter or unique architecture. And Boston SUCKS. And aside from the fish tacos and craft beer, San Diego sucks. So imagine being in a worse version all the time, and stuck in traffic. Choosing which mini mall you’ll shop at today. Cuisine that at its height features Del Taco. You play in a soulless building in front of perhaps the dumbest per capita fanbase in the league (as there are only like 19 Ducks fans). You have to wear a jersey that looks like something people thrown out of Tron wore. You play for a coach who couldn’t make toast and makes anyone who completes two consecutive passes skate laps or drink canola oil. And he replaced a coach whose tactical plan consisted of a picture of The Little Engine That Could. Nothing you ever do will matter. You claim a parking lot as your home. You’re second banana to a baseball team that hasn’t mattered in over a decade.

Thanks to a fluke championship where they also happened to lead the league in fights, the entire organization and fans think that if the Ducks aren’t fighting they’re losing. So everywhere you go some jackass in socks and sandals and a backwards and upside down visor is telling you to fight more when you can’t score. You’re always answering for Corey Perry’s and Ryan Kesler’s shit, even though they can’t play anymore. You’re watching Ryan Getzlaf barely enter the offensive zone for fear he might injure his check-endorsing hand. What’s the point?

Even Kesler doesn’t want to anymore. If you watched him enter any scrum last night you saw a guy doing what he thought he was supposed to from memory. The passion wasn’t there. He was just following a script. He wanted to go back home…the abandoned boathouse among the possums he calls his family. Whatever life-force he had has circled the drain round the 405 like the rest of the place.

It’s not that this team is old, though it is in spots. It’s not that it has holes in the roster, though it does. It’s that just that even being a Duck has robbed them of life. Whatever light they had has gone out. They don’t care anymore, and they won’t until the roster is completely turned over. And moved to Portland or Hamilton. Anaheim has robbed this team of any soul, to match the setting it plays in. This is a team that wants to fold in on itself. It wants to die. It wants to no longer exist.

So you’ve got your wish for another year, Ducks. But I’m sorry to say, for all of us, that you’ll have to do it all again in October. And it will be even more pointless than before. No one’s coming to put you out of your misery permanently. You’ll have to keep doing this, in the diseased prostate of California, forever. There is no escape.

April 19, 2018
Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… -FFUD’s Player Reviews: Duncan Keith or Diminishing Flash

Duncan Keith had a couple things going for him this year, in terms of not being the subject of the hairdryer treatment from fans and media alike that Seabrook, Saad, and Toews got. One, Seabrook soaked up most of it amongst the d-men, mostly because Seabrook’s contract was never a bargain which Keith’s has been for a decade now. Or was. Second, Keith has never been put center of the Hawks marketing blitz like Toews has, nor has he show much motivation to be so. While he was the most important skater for the Hawks for said decade, and he was, he’s never been covered or treated that way, even though his silverware cabinet eclipses that of any of his teammates and most players in the NHL (to review: three rings, two Norris Trophies, two gold medals, and a Conn Smythe, the only Hawk who actually got the Conn Smythe he deserved).

So even though Keith has clearly hit the back nine on his career, the knives for him aren’t nearly as sharp. And they probably shouldn’t be. Let’s dive in, folks:

Duncan Keith

82 games (first time he’s done that since 2011), 2 goals, 30 assists, 32 points, -29, 28 PIM

51.8 CF%, 0.73 CF% rel, 51.3 SCF%, 47.1 xGF%, -3.57 xGF% rel

So if I were to map out the numbers over the previous five years, you would see that yes, these are lower than what Keith used to do, but they’re not really that far off what he was doing in 2016-2017. That’s when he was mostly paired with Hjalmarsson, they were taking the hardest shifts in terms of opponents and zone starts, and both of them were starting to creak rather loudly.

Here’s the scary part of Keith’s numbers this year, though. It’s with a huge uptick in offensive zone starts. This year Keith’s Zone Start Rating–the measure offensive zone starts against total starts–was 59.2. Last year it was 52.3. So even with start many more shifts in the offensive zone, Keith wasn’t really pushing the play at all. That’s a problem.

Another problem was finding someone to play with Keith. At this point in his career, Keith needs someone to do some of the work for him. He can’t be the ultimate defensive guy and squeeze the play up the ice as he had done in the past, with either Seabrook or Hjalmarsson basically being the “Break Glass In Case Of…” guy behind him. Most of his time was spent with Jordan Oesterle, who we know is basically a faint suggestion of anything. Oesterle is basically the blank slate you get when you Create-a-Player, before you earn any points to improve him. Even though they went back to it at the end of the season. Brent Seabrook simply isn’t up to it anymore. The pairing with Connor Murphy just didn’t quite work, which had to have been the blueprint before the season started. Then again, they only got about 10 games together, so it’s probably worth trying again next year.

A lot was made of Keith’s lonely two goals (one of which kept the Blues out of the playoffs so that should count for like 10, if not 100). What’s kind of funny is that Keith got more attempts per game, more shots on goal per game, and more xG per game than in his previous seasons. He just shot an utterly unfathomable and really quite comedic 1% overall. Even for a d-man that’s…I mean I think the adjectives are beyond me. Farcical would be a good place to start. Seuessian might be another. Some of that has to be a result of starting in the offensive zone more than ever before.

The thing is Keith has never been a great offensive d-man. And that sounds strange for a two-time Norris winner and has a few 50+ point seasons to his name. But Keith’s offense, as we’ve said repeatedly, springs from his defense. He’s not Karlsson. He’s not Subban. He’s not Hedman. He would stop rushes against at his own blue line or before, get the puck up to the forwards ASAP and then join the rush. He would be the late-man or rack up secondary assists. He’s not really, nor has never been, a playmaker.

So next year you can look for his point totals to go up simply because HOCKEY. But that doesn’t mean the Hawks can count on him to be a top-pairing puck-mover ever again. He’s not going to be. To go with the numbers, you could see that the plays Keith used to make, and the ones you wouldn’t necessarily teach, he couldn’t quite get to anymore. He couldn’t step up outside his blue line as consistently anymore because he could get beat to the outside. He couldn’t chase outside the circles in his own zone because more and more forwards could get around him. He couldn’t fly out to the corners in the same way because he wouldn’t get there in time or he’d get beat back to the net.

That’s not to write off Keith at all. His instincts are still upper echelon. What he needs is to find a way to shrink his game, and to do that the Hawks are going to have to find him a partner who allows him to. It has to be someone mobile, because you want someone who can cover for Keith and not the other way around. It has to be someone who can get up the ice the way Keith used to, and it has to be stressed to Duncs that he’s just not that guy anymore. Murphy in theory can do the first part but not really the second. Gustafsson is too wonky in his own end to do the first part. If Jokiharju were two years older, he has the skillset to be that guy. But he’s not going to be ready for that. Forsling has the Gustafsson problem. The answer is going to have to come from outside the organization. I just don’t know what that answer is, and know it most likely will be very expensive in terms of either money, chips in a trade, or both.

But then…all of Karlsson, OEL, and Faulk are probably going to be out there in the trade market…I’m not sayin’, I’m just sayin’.

April 19, 2018