Recent Posts

  • Game #46 – Predators 3, Hawks 3, Predators Win Paint Huffing Duel – Got Stuck on Thoughts that I Know Ain’t Facts

    Game #46 – Predators 3, Hawks 3, Predators Win Paint Huffing Duel – Got Stuck on Thoughts that I Know Ain’t Facts

    The Hawks had no business keeping this game as close as they did. The Predators should be wondering what witch doctor they crossed who kept them from closing this out way earlier and robbing them of both points. Let’s get to it:

    Box Score

    Corsica

    Natural Stat Trick

    – For about the first three minutes the Hawks were outshooting the Predators and looked in control. Nashville quickly righted that situation and within what felt like a nanosecond, Colton Sissons (who sounds like some asshole high school quarterback from Texas) scored to take a 1-0 lead. The Hawks did score a power play goal in the first but then gave the lead back in what actually was a nanosecond (OK, it was like eight seconds later). A four-minute penalty was thrown in there, and with the exception of a solid power play the Hawks got domed in the first—behind in shots (17-13), goals (2-1), and possession (56-44 CF%).

    – The Hawks managed to pull their shit together in the second and killed off the remainder of the four-minute penalty. They kept taking dumb penalties through the period, but Jonathan Toews scored a short-handed goal on Kampf’s tripping of Viktor Arvidsson right at the end. The PK looked very shaky at times but not at that moment. In fact, the pass from Kruger was perfectly placed as Toews was streaking into the slot, and his precision getting it past Rinne while moving at top speed was a thing of beauty.

    – We’ve been saying for basically the entire season that Alex DeBrincat is not a fucking third liner, and apparently Coach Cool Youth Pastor came around to that notion today, because Top Cat was finally back on the top line. And what did he do? Scored a goal and had seven shots on the night. The goal was on the power play off a pass from Kane, and the entire play showed once again that Kane and DeBrincat work extremely well together, and every day that they’re not permanently on a line together is a crime against basic common sense. No, playing with Kane wouldn’t put him on the top line but the point is that DeBrincat should be in the top six. Don’t bother with tonight’s experiment with Saad on the stupid third line that is already pretty useless with Kampf and Caligula. Put Saad back with Toews and Kahun, and play DeBrincat-Strome-Kane. That’s a solid top six. I feel like I keep saying some iteration of this into the ether and you know doing the same thing repeatedly while expecting a different outcome is the definition of insanity. Thanks a lot, fucking Hawks.

    – Anyway, they didn’t have many power play chances but the one they scored on had the movement we’ve been braying about over here, along with Toews in the high slot drawing defenders, which left Top Cat open for Kane’s pass. So maybe all that repetition isn’t totally insane.

    – By the third it was pure luck that kept the Hawks in it. Nashville had a 58 CF% in the period and it was a whiffed shot and an untimely post that kept them from taking a two-goal lead. And they managed to let Wide Dick Arty score, so you know there was some combination of bad breaks and foolish mistakes. It only took about a minute into OT for Filip Forsberg to put it away with his second of the night.

    Henri Jokiharju had a solid return tonight, with a 63 CF% and a team-leading 23 CF% Rel. It’ll be interesting to see how Colliton maneuvers the defense when Seabrook returns from his bout of acute suck-itis that kept him out tonight.

    – On a bit of a side note, the intermission segments on the broadcast tonight really epitomized how this league has no fucking clue who or what it is, or what it wants to be. The first intermission had a (very staged) segment with PK Subban handing out sweaters to a couple teammates, and they were made from recycled plastic supposedly taken out of the ocean. I’m skeptical of some greenwashing here, but nevertheless it featured timely themes, a black player, and was generally forward-thinking/feeling. Then, in the second intermission, we got Mike Milbury and Keith Jones showing grainy, shitty footage of themselves fighting fellow oafs back in the day and guffawing about how hilarious those days were. It couldn’t have been more backwards-looking or contradictory if someone had set out to make these segments as jarring as possible. Clearly there are multiple voices trying to direct these broadcasts, but the old guard has not lost that battle yet.

    Back to the Hawks, they were fortunate to get one point since it was really Collin Delia bailing their asses out with a couple big saves in the third that even allowed them to get to OT. It won’t mean much in the end, but we’ll take it, right? Onward and upward.

  • Game #46 – Predators vs. Hawks Preview/Red Point Training: Fully Operational Death Star

    Game #46 – Predators vs. Hawks Preview/Red Point Training: Fully Operational Death Star

     vs. 

    RECORDS: Predators 26-15-3   Hawks 16-22-7

    PUCK DROP: 7pm

    TV: NBCSN

    THIRD MAN HANGERS-ON: On The Forecheck

    Not exactly the easiest week for the Hawks. Sunday saw them face the hottest team in the league, a test which they passed. Then they got the Pacific leaders, who let them hang around for two periods before it was swirly time in the third. Tonight it’s one half of the Central’s twin towers, and then Saturday night it’s the defending Western champs who are tied with the team that just held the Hawks at arm’s length on Monday. Boy, the Devils and Rangers can’t get here fast enough!

    It’s been a wonky year for the Preds, so the fact that they’re still sitting one point off the Jets, though having played two games more, is a real work by Peter Laviolette. Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson, PK Subban, Kyle Turris (still) have all missed serious time, and yet here they are. Unfortunately for the Hawks, all but Turris are back in the lineup and this is just about as close to the full Predators experience as they’ve been since the beginning of the season.

    To wit, a team that had won two of 10 road games before Monday went out and promptly destroyed the Leafs in Toronto, winning 4-0 and holding perhaps the biggest arsenal in the league to 18 shots. So yeah, that’s not exactly encouraging for tonight.

    The Preds had something of a dip in December, as both Juuse Saros and Ol’Shit Hip fell off their hot pace. Which makes you think it was a structural thing, and it might have been as without Subban you’re only going to get away with playing Dan Hamhuis and his walking stick as a second pairing player for so long. Still, even with that, the Preds are third in the league in shots against overall per game and sixth in scoring-chances against at even-strength. They’re top-10 in both team Corsi-percentage and scoring-chance-percentage. The one area they’re deficient is they’re 18th in high-danger-scoring-chance-percentage, mostly because they don’t create a ton. That is probably a product of not having Arvidsson and Forsberg for a while, because this is a team that has always depended on its top line to do most of the damage. That has been corrected now.

    It’s still perhaps the most devastating blue line in the league, with all of Ellis, Josi, and PK among the premier puck-movers in the league (sidenote: Has anyone in recent history racked up a more impressive social resume than Lindsey Vonn? If she were a dude she’d be Tony Stark. Get it, girl). This is clearly their strength.

    Also, in four games in January they’ve given up four goals in regulation, with three of those somehow coming to the Red Wings. So yeah, the goalies are probably fine now. Go get ’em, Hawks!

    For the Hawks, the question will be tonight where does the returning, conquering hero Henri Jokiharju slot in. The Hawks may have caught a break in that Brent Seabrook is sick, which would give them shelter to keep The HarJu on his normal side, on a shielded third-pairing, and keep the other two pairings together, as they’ve been working. No word on whether Colliton/Bowman spiked Seabrook’s nachos-for-four last night at Four Moons.

    That will be for one night, but the Hawks are going to have to answer that question soon enough. The simplest and best solution would be to pair Keith and Seabrook again, but make that your third pairing. Then you can slot the four of Dahlstrom, Murphy, Gustafsson, and HarJu any way you want. You can leave Dahlstrom and Murphy to do the hard work-which they haven’t been as good at of late but it’s the best you’ve got–and let Gustafsson and Jokiharju bumslay a bit. Or you just divide it up evenly with Dalshtrom letting Jokiharju freelance more and Murphy doing the same for Gustafsson and Keith and Seabrook take the rest. This is the easiest and cleanest solution, and hence it’ll be the one the Hawks don’t take.

    No word on what goalie is going tonight as it was a pretty informal get-together this morning. You would think it would have to be Delia, but we keep saying that. The other change is John Hayden is in for Chris Kunitz. Contain your excitement, we just mopped.

    Not much to say here. The Hawks have played the Preds tough since giving up the first four goals to them in their first meeting in Nashville, and beat them there later. But this is the full Preds death squad minus Turris. And with something to play for. Might want to hide under your seat for this one.

     

    Game #46 Preview Suite

    Preview

    Spotlight

    Q&A

    Douchebag Du Jour

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineups & How Teams Were Built

  • Game #46 – Predators vs. Hawks Spotlight: Ryan Ellis And They Do It Too

    Game #46 – Predators vs. Hawks Spotlight: Ryan Ellis And They Do It Too

    In a vacuum, what would you say about a team giving a 29-year-old defenseman an eight-year extension at $6.25M per year? Crazy right? No d-man is any good past 33 or 34 unless they’re a chiseled god like Zdeno Chara, right? Fit to be tied, you’d say! Pure ridiculousness! Well, you’re not the Nashville Predators, who did just that with Ryan Ellis before this season, and he’ll be that well-paid until he’s 37. Not bad work if you can get it.

    On the surface, you can see it. For most of his career, Ellis has been a nifty, second-pairing guy who really pushed the play, anchored a second power play unit, and got you around 35 points. He’s also right-handed, which NHL GMs consider something around tritium levels of valuable on their blue line. Not bad. The past couple years he’s even moved up to the top pairing with Roman Josi, perhaps being the only top pairing in the league with two players that are swift and get up the ice, and not the yin-and-yang of pusher and center-fielder you’ve seen in places like here. Certainly worked out for the Predators, who have gotten a Final appearance and a division crown out of it.

    Still, look a little deeper, and it’s not as rosy. This season. Ellis has exclusively been with Josi, and they’ve been ok together. But in the limited sample that Ellis has been away from Josi, he’s been awful. 40.5 CF%, 37.5 GF%, 41.8 SCF%. And that’s not uncommon. Last year, the number with and without Josi are much more even, but that was only in half of a season as Ellis missed the first half with injury. So they have about as much sample of Ellis being useful without Josi as they do of him being utterly helpless. Two years ago, the first time Ellis was pretty exclusively with Josi, it was much the same as this year as his Corsi and scoring-chance percentages dip 5-10% without Josi.

    Still, much like we discussed with Jake Guentzel on Sunday, if you sign Player A knowing he’s going to play with Player B, who’s probably responsible for making Player A what you’re paying him to be, it’s not a huge issue. There’s no reason to anticipate that Ellis won’t be playing with Josi the next few years, and both are a few years away from when you really start to worry about the aging process.

    Even next year doesn’t provide much of a cap problem for the Preds. Ryan Hartman and Kevin Fiala will be RFA, but neither is going to break the bank you wouldn’t think. The Preds will have about $15 million in space, which will easily accommodate those two.

    It’s the following year where things might get a touch messy. As that’s when Josi is unrestricted. And he’s going to require just a touch more than the $4 million per year he’s been making. Certainly north of Ellis’s number is a gimme, and his agent might be looking at PK Subban’s $9M and say, “Well, my guy is playing on the top pair here and shielding that guy, so gimme gimme gimme.” Are the Preds really going to pay half their blue line somewhere between $22-25 million a year? ? Or more? At the moment they’ll have room for that, but they’ll also one day have to have more than just a top line.

    It appears the Predators didn’t ask themselves very hard whether or not Josi can carry a host of other d-men to impressive metrics and use, because it would appear for all the world he can. Could they have just slotted Subban there next year and found someone else to bum-slay with Matthias Ekholm? Would that have freed up enough cash to make a real splash like Matt Duchene or Mark Stone, something they might need to get past the Jets or Sharks if they fail to this season?

    They aren’t asking yet, but they might be.

     

    Game #46 Preview Suite

    Preview

    Spotlight

    Q&A

    Douchebag Du Jour

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineups & How Teams Were Built

  • Game #46 – Predators vs. Hawks Q&A: The One And Only…Well, A J.R.

    Game #46 – Predators vs. Hawks Q&A: The One And Only…Well, A J.R.

    J.R. Lind is always our Preds guy. Follow him on Twitter @JRLind.

    The Predators have only won two of their last nine on the road. What’s the story there?
    It’s hard to discount the injuries the team had to deal with in the last bit of 2018: Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson, P.K. Subban and Colton Sissons all missed significant time and now Kyle Turris is out for a bit. The Preds were also due for a bit of a come-down, particularly on the road, where they started out so hot. The good news is guys are starting to come back and the team looked as good as they’ve looked all season Monday against Toronto with a 4-0 win and holding the Leafs to 18 shots.
    Both Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros had something of a rough go in December. So does that make it a team problem more than the goalies having a down stretch?
     
    Based on both guys’ last few starts, it seems like it was a general team issue, particularly on the back end. Subban’s injury led to Laviolette having to do some unusual things with the pairings, occasionally splitting up Ryan Ellis and Roman Josi and sticking, say, Dan Hamhuis – an extremely good third pair guy, but a little long in the tooth – on the first pair or playing Matt Irwin with Mattias Ekholm and so on. Since the calendar turned, the team is 3-0-1 and Saros has given up one goal in his last two starts and Rinne is coming off that shutout. I suspect Chicago will get Rinne as a divisional foe with Columbus coming on the other side of the back-to-back, but both guys have looked a lot better as the injured players have returned.
    How much of this is Arvidsson and Forsberg being out?
     
    Losing your two top goal-scorers is going to hurt any team, and then add into what those guys bring physically – Forsberg probably doesn’t get enough credit for that part of his game and Arvidsson is a stellar forechecker – and Nashville had to make some adjustments. It also had a ripple effect down the lines, with guys like Ryan Hartman and Phil Di Giuseppe actually seeing time on Ryan Johansen’s wing. But for a team that expects to play into June, getting more minutes for depth guys isn’t necessarily a bad thing and the extra ice time helped jumpstart Kevin Fiala, who had looked moribund early.
    What will the Preds be looking for at the deadline?
     
    Similar to last year with Hartman, a middle-six or bottom-six wing with a little size or physicality. The rash of injuries this year really put into focus how important depth can be and the series against the Jets last year – and it seems inevitable Winnipeg and Nashville will face-off again – the Preds did get pushed around a little. They don’t need a big, splashy move and I’m not saying Wayne Simmonds, but Wayne Simmonds.

     

    Game #46 Preview Suite

    Preview

    Spotlight

    Q&A

    Douchebag Du Jour

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineups & How Teams Were Built

  • Game #46 – Predators vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Anyone Who Believes PK Subban Shouldn’t Be Face Of The League

    Game #46 – Predators vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Anyone Who Believes PK Subban Shouldn’t Be Face Of The League

    It seems like we do this post every year, and it’s because we do. But then PK keeps doing things that reiterate the point, so there’s not much we can do. In case you missed it, here’s a video he recorded to support a young player in Michigan who had been the target of racial abuse. Also, we could have written this about anyone who racially taunts a fucking child being first up against the wall when the revolution hits, but you already knew that so we don’t need to repeat ourselves.

    Obviously, Subban is always going to be put in the spotlight for issues like this because he’s one of the few black players in the league, and certainly the only one in this echelon. Whenever there’s a problem with racism in hockey, Subban is going to be sought out. So yes, he gets more of a chance to shine. And while he has dealt in platitudes at times, he’s never shirked the responsibility. There are a host of other issues it would be great to hear from any NHL player on, but this is a world where Jonathan Toews’s reasoned views on global warming are considered radical.

    Subban’s charity work, fashion sense, likability, and yes, comfort in front of a camera are all things that should be cherished by the league and fans. And yet it’s milquetoast Connor McDavid or John Tavares getting the promotion pushes, or known evil shits like the Kanes. The next interesting thing Sidney Crosby has to say will be the first.

    We go through this every time. If the NHL wants to expand its audience, which it hasn’t shown a determination or know-how to do, then representation matters. Subban is about all they have. And he should be pushed, and his interest in talking about things that matter shouldn’t make anyone afraid. It certainly doesn’t in the NBA or NFL.

    Subban’s ways have been anathema to how NHL players and coaches and execs think a NHL dressing room should work. Fuck, it got him traded out of Montreal. Which should have been a blessing to the league, as having him in a southern market in the US where he can do all sorts of things for you should benefit everyone. Hell, he’s even got a celebrity girlfriend! What more do you need?

    He already does a lot for so many. Why should anyone be hesitant to let him do more?

     

     

    Game #46 Preview Suite

    Preview

    Spotlight

    Q&A

    Douchebag Du Jour

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineups & How Teams Were Built

  • Game #46 – Predators vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

    Game #46 – Predators vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

    Notes: It’s almost full systems go for the Preds. Forsberg and Arvidsson are back to form the top line that has given the Hawks migraines for a few years now. Turris is still out long-term, but Subban is back, whom the Hawks haven’t seen yet this year either…Saros started Monday in Toronto so it should be Rinne tonight…Jarnkrok could center the second line with Sissons moving down, they’ve tried both in the past….Smith has four goals in his last four games…

    Notes: The Hawks might try and wriggle out of their defensive jam by using Seabrook’s sickness this morning (morning sickness?) as cover. They’ll have hard decisions to make otherwise. The best would be to make Keith and Seabrook the third pairing, but they won’t do that…Hayden could draw in for Kunitz, not that it matters….with no back-to-backs on the horizon it’s time to let Delia ride and see what you’ve got…some point soon they’re going to try Caggiula at center…

     

    Game #46 Preview Suite

    Preview

    Spotlight

    Q&A

    Douchebag Du Jour

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineups & How Teams Were Built

  • Live From The Five Hole – Hung Out To Dry

    Live From The Five Hole – Hung Out To Dry

    After the holiday break, we’re back with thoughts about the “resurgent” Blackhawks. As always, the podcast is free after the jump.

    (more…)

  • Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – January 8th

    Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – January 8th

    First Screen Viewing

    Oilers vs. Sharks – 9:30

    It hasn’t quite taken off after Ken Hitchcock’s initial dead cat bounce (especially apt when talking about the Oilers).  They’re still stranded outside the playoff fun and still facing the same problems they had before, except their GM is picking up even shittier players than he was before. The Sharks ended the Lightning’s unbeaten streak on Saturday and have the Flames to keep up with. That win though exemplifies the raw power this team is capable of, and they might not sweat playoff seeding too much anyway. And hey, McDavid might be pissed off after being boarded in Anaheim even though Jabba The Hitch thought playing him with Kassian and Khaira would prevent that. So tune in for the comedy.

    Second Screen Viewing

    Avalanche vs. Jets – 7pm

    The Avs are starting to fall, as the horseshit Stars are right on their heels for the last automatic spot. You can only do it with one line for so long, and whenever that line has a dip you’re going to suffer. The Avs desperately need someone else to step up. The Jets are going to be duking it out with the Preds at the top of the division, though having won without home-ice last year might decrease the urgency. They’re going to be without Byfuglien and Ehlers for a while, which might handicap their race. Still, two of the more explosive teams around.

    Other Games

    Wild vs. Bruins – 6pm

    Devils vs. Sabres – 6pm

    Hurricanes vs. Islanders – 6pm

    Panthers vs. Penguins – 6pm

    Flyers vs. Capitals – 6:30

    Canadiens vs. Red Wings – 6:30

    Blue Jackets vs. Lightning – 6:30

    Stars vs. Blues – 7pm

    Rangers vs. Knights – 9pm

  • The Real NHL Standings Halfway Through

    The Real NHL Standings Halfway Through

    Everyone has played half their schedule now, so this is something I like to do. It’s what the standings would look like if it were a system that made sense. We do it two ways, so walk with me here. First, here are the standings as they are now:

    Atlantic Division GP W L OL PTS
    Tampa Bay Lightning 42 32 8 2 66
    Toronto Maple Leafs 42 27 13 2 56
    Boston Bruins 42 24 14 4 52
    Buffalo Sabres 42 22 14 6 50
    Montreal Canadiens 43 22 16 5 49
    Florida Panthers 40 17 16 7 41
    Detroit Red Wings 44 16 21 7 39
    Ottawa Senators 43 15 23 5 35
    Metropolitan Division GP W L OL PTS
    Washington Capitals 41 25 12 4 54
    Pittsburgh Penguins 42 23 13 6 52
    Columbus Blue Jackets 41 24 14 3 51
    New York Islanders 40 23 13 4 50
    Carolina Hurricanes 41 19 17 5 43
    New York Rangers 41 17 17 7 41
    New Jersey Devils 41 16 18 7 39
    Philadelphia Flyers 42 15 21 6 36
    Central Division GP W L OL PTS
    Nashville Predators 44 26 15 3 55
    Winnipeg Jets 41 26 13 2 54
    Colorado Avalanche 42 20 14 8 48
    Dallas Stars 43 22 17 4 48
    Minnesota Wild 41 21 17 3 45
    Chicago Blackhawks 45 16 22 7 39
    St. Louis Blues 40 17 19 4 38
    Pacific Division GP W L OL PTS
    Calgary Flames 44 27 13 4 58
    Vegas Golden Knights 45 26 15 4 56
    San Jose Sharks 44 24 13 7 55
    Anaheim Ducks 43 19 17 7 45
    Vancouver Canucks 45 20 21 4 44
    Edmonton Oilers 42 20 19 3 43
    Arizona Coyotes 42 18 21 3 39
    Los Angeles Kings 44 17 24 3 37

    Now, let’s get rid of this ridiculous OT system. So all overtimes and shootouts are just ties, and we’ll simply measure by regulation wins:

    Atlantic Division GP W L T PTS
    Tampa Bay Lightning 42 24 8 8 56
    Toronto Maple Leafs 42 22 13 5 49
    Boston Bruins 42 19 14 5 43
    Montreal Canadiens 43 18 16 4 40
    Buffalo Sabres 42 14 14 8 36
    Florida Panthers 40 11 16 6 28
    Ottawa Senators 43 12 23 3 27
    Detroit Red Wings 44 8 21 8 24
    Metropolitan Division GP W L T PTS
    Washington Capitals 41 19 12 6 44
    Pittsburgh Penguins 42 19 13 4 42
    Columbus Blue Jackets 41 19 14 5 43
    New York Islanders 40 18 13 5 41
    Carolina Hurricanes 41 16 17 3 35
    New York Rangers 41 11 17 6 28
    New Jersey Devils 41 14 18 2 30
    Philadelphia Flyers 42 12 21 3 27
    Central Division GP W L T PTS
    Nashville Predators 44 22 15 4 48
    Winnipeg Jets 41 20 13 6 46
    Colorado Avalanche 42 19 14 2 40
    Dallas Stars 43 19 17 1 39
    Minnesota Wild 41 17 17 5 39
    St. Louis Blues 40 15 19 2 32
    Chicago Blackhawks 45 11 22 5 27
    Pacific Division GP W L T PTS
    Calgary Flames 44 23 13 4 50
    Vegas Golden Knights 45 22 15 4 48
    San Jose Sharks 44 21 13 3 45
    Edmonton Oilers 42 14 19 6 34
    Anaheim Ducks 43 14 17 6 34
    Vancouver Canucks 45 12 21 7 31
    Arizona Coyotes 42 13 21 5 31
    Los Angeles Kings 44 12 24 5 29

    Not too much changes, but it’s also not the same. The Lightning are still running away with the league. The Wings would comfortably be the worst team in the league. The Hawks would be marooned in the Central, and the Oilers would look a little rosier. The Sharks would be in bigger trouble than they are now. Just a fun little experiment to see who’s doing the real work.