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  • Game #63 – Stars vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

    Game #63 – Stars vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

    Note: Corsica is still down, so the Stars xGF% were not available. 

    Notes: These don’t include yesterday’s game…There could be a couple changes from this. If Radulov is healthy enough to go, he’ll replace Nichushkin, and slot up with Seguin with Spezza on the third line. The Stars also acquired Ben Lovejoy yesterday, and he could make his debut in place of Fedun…Benn has dropped down with Faksa to form a checking line, which is a use for him, we guess…Klingberg and Lindell aren’t pushing the play nearly the way they did last year…Seguin has 12 points in his last 10 games…Klingberg has one goal since January 10th…all Cogliano does is get the play in the right end. Might be a sneaky cheap signing this summer to push Saad back up into the top six…

    Notes: Our best guess on defense. We wouldn’t think that Colliton would want to hang Koekkoek immediately out to dry after his game-costing turnover against the Avs, but Forsling could replace him. Dahlstrom will probably go right back in…Perlini could come in for Kunitz or Hayden…Strome’s line had their first dominant game in a while against the Avs, with all three above 60% in Corsi…Kane had 13 shots against the Avs, tying for a team-record…

     

    Game #63 Preview Suite

    Preview

    Spotlight

    Q&A

    Douchebag Du Jour

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineups & How Teams Were Built

  • Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – February 23-24

    Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – February 23-24

    First Screen Viewing

    Hurricanes vs. Stars – Saturday, 4pm

    If you’re looking for a game with both teams having something to play for, this is probably the best you’ll do over the weekend. The Canes are now sitting right on the shoulder of both Pittsburgh and Columbus (making Columbus’s “go for it” push pretty hilarious, both for them and the division around them), just one point back. The Stars can’t biff this weekend or they’re going to be stumbling through the mud of the bottom of the West playoff race, and that’s some fine Mississippi mud right there. Put yo’ face in the Mississippi mud. The Canes are one of the more exciting shows going, as they’re up-tempo and having a blast, and they seem to have properly harnessed the stroked-beards and clucked-tongues of the old hockey guard to only have more fun. We kind of need this in the playoffs for a variety of reasons.

    Second Screen Viewing

    Sharks vs. Jackets – Saturday, 4pm

    A lot on the line here as well. As stated, the Jackets are guaranteed nothing, even with the acquisition of Matt Duchene. The Sharks and Flames are locked in a battle to see which goalie can fuck up the most promising of seasons more, as San Jose is now three points behind the Flames in the race for the Pacific and West. They also just tore apart the Penguins, so there’s some mixed messages from them. Duchene in his home debut against the West’s best…outside of the crease.

    Other Games

    Saturday

    Capitals vs. Sabres – 12pm

    Devils vs. Rangers – 12pm

    Bruins vs. Blues – 3pm

    Kings vs. Panthers – 3pm

    Avalanche vs. Predators – 4:30

    Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs – 6pm

    Penguins vs. Flyers – 7pm

    Islanders vs. Canucks – 9pm

    Ducks vs. Oilers – 9pm

    Sunday

    Rangers vs. Capitals – 11:30 am

    Sharks vs. Red Wings – 2pm

    Blues vs. Wild – 6pm

    Flames vs. Senators – 6pm

    Jets vs. Coyotes – 8pm

  • Game #62 – Sammy Was Low, Just Watching the Show, Over and Over Again – Avs 5, Hawks 3

    Game #62 – Sammy Was Low, Just Watching the Show, Over and Over Again – Avs 5, Hawks 3

    Box Score

    Natural Stat Trick

    The Hawks controlled play almost all game. They had the Avs on their heels for most of it. They had one player below 50% in the possession share (Sikura). It was one of the better games they’ve played recently, and that stupid goddamn motherfucking woman-beating piece of shit asshole goalie the Avs had made it worth nothing. Goddamnit. Let’s do this fucking thing.

    – Let’s start with the play that changed it all. Slater Koekkoek channeled his inner Fernando Pisani and handed the game away. The Hawks had managed to maintain pressure in the zone and force a turnover to keep the pressure on, and Koekkoek, under no pressure, just threw the pass away. The idea wasn’t bad: He had Kahun open across the ice, and if he hadn’t passed it directly to Patrik Nemeth, Kahun might have had a shot at a wide-open net. But Koekkoek couldn’t execute, despite having no pressure on him whatsoever.

    There’s no excuse for what happened. Yeah, the idea was fine, but when you’ve got enough time to watch two drops of pitch fall to make a pass, you just can’t miss it by as much as Koekkoek did. It was a terrible, terrible excuse for a pass from a guy who’s paid to be an NHL-caliber D-man. I seriously hope Seabrook gets healthy soon, because that’s how done I am with this guy.

    – Despite the outcome, this was one of the best games the Hawks played. They were aggressive and controlled the pace throughout. They had a 58+ CF%, and only Sikura was on the negative side of the ledger, which is weird, because he looked good early. After taking the lead in the first, the Avs were happy to pack it in as much as possible, and it ended up working. If you’re a believer in karma, this is it, because the Hawks have won a few games they probably shouldn’t have recently. But once again, their defense let them down.

    – Delia’s first two goals weren’t on him. They were on Duncan Keith. On the first, Keith skated out way too far to cover Kerfoot, which left the middle of the ice wide open for Soderberg’s first goal. It didn’t help that Gus got hypnotized by Andrighetto on what was a developing 4-on-2, but Keith’s angle was the main culprit. On the second goal, which was on the PK, Keith somehow ended up outside of the far-side dot for reasons unknown to anyone. That left Murphy alone in front against three skaters, including Compher, who potted the shot no problem.

    The third goal was on Delia. Toews did turn the puck over, but he and Jokiharju recovered well enough on Landeskog. Delia found himself angled way too tightly on the near post (relative to Landeskog), and Landeskog went over his shoulder on the far side. I want to be mad at him, but Landeskog is an excellent shooter and Delia is still a rookie. That’s one he has to have though. And you would have liked to see him stuff Soderberg on the backbreaker.

    – With Seabrook and Dahlstrom out, Colliton had no choice but to start Jokiharju. Harju only had about nine minutes at 5v5, but he still posted a 62.5 CF%. I’m not sure what it is that Colliton doesn’t like about him yet, but it’s getting old fast. It’s not quite the bullshit that Quenneville pulled on Murphy last year, but it’s getting there. Harju didn’t look out of place out there, even if he didn’t really stand out either. But he sure as shit didn’t make any plays like the one Koekkoek made, so what’s it gonna take to give the guy who deserves the spot that fucking spot already?

    – Fuck Semyon Varlamov.

    – Garbage Dick had himself another game, pushing his scoring streak to 20 games. That creep really can roll, but I can’t help but wonder whether the Hawks leaned on him too much late in this one. I know that sounds stupid, given how good he’s been, but hear me out. Early in the third, the Hawks had two almost-consecutive power plays. On the first and for half of the second, the Hawks stepped back and waited for Kane to try to enter the zone just about every time. The Avs would collapse on him early, forcing a pass, and leading to a clear.

    Late in the second power play in the third period, instead of taking it himself, Kane passed to Top Cat before hitting the blue line, which jostled the Avs’s PK. Within 15 seconds, the Hawks had tied the game. By using his release value, Kane managed to open up more space than he could Carmelo’ing. Kane may want to do it all, but he’s got enough offensive talent around him that he doesn’t have to do literally everything. Still, he’s the best player on the Hawks right now by far, so I get it.

    – Dylan Strome was excellent tonight. The metrics were great (63+ CF%, 8.64 CF% Rel). He scored a game-tying goal off an end-board bank shot from Gus (who sucked out loud most of the night). He would have had two had he not janked a shot off the post while shooting at a yawning net in the first. He nearly had a highlight reel assist in the second, laying out for a DeBrincat pass and sweeping it, from his belly, to a crashing Kahun, who got stuffed by that ovarian cyst that is Semyon Varlamov. He is without a doubt the #2 center the Hawks have been looking for since Sharp decided he was too pretty to play center anymore.

    – The Hawks’s second goal at the end of the second might be the best one I’ve seen all year, and it was all because Jonathan Toews simply decided it was time to fuck. After gathering the puck in the corner, Toews powered from the near boards to the slot with overwhelming power puck handling. His initial shot was blocked, but he recovered and beamed a pass through the slot to a waiting Kane, who could have written a dissertation on Karl Hungus’s role in Logjammin’ with all the time he had to take the shot. This year has been a relief to watch in one sense, as Toews is certainly back to being Toews.

    This is a heartbreaking loss, because it’s a game they should have won. It’s also a game that shows how desperately the Hawks need to pursue Karlsson, Dougie, or HAMPUS! HAMPUS! this offseason. If they can scratch one out against the Stars, we’ll be right back to where we were before this game started: anxious and far too sober to handle it.

    Oh, and fuck Jimmy Buffett and his stupid goddamn boomer music. Whoever decided to make a night out of celebrating the aural horror he calls a career should be caned.

    Booze du Jour: Great Divide Hercules Double IPA with a Drano back following Koekkoek’s horseshit.

    Line of the Night: “Matt Calvert’s legs and heart made that happen.” –Marc Moser, doing his best Mike Milbury impression.

  • Game #62 – Avalanche vs Hawks Preview/Shoot Interview: Well, It Is And It Ain’t

    Game #62 – Avalanche vs Hawks Preview/Shoot Interview: Well, It Is And It Ain’t

    vs.

    RECORDS: Avalanche 25-24-11   Hawks 26-26-9

    PUCK DROP: 6:30 (for some reason?)

    TV: NBCSN Chicago

    COULDN’T GET MUCH HIGHER: Mile High Hockey

    It’s at the top that I’m supposed to tell you this is an awfully big weekend at the United Center. The Hawks will have two games with four points on offer against direct rivals for the wild card spots. Win both, and you’re entrenched in the race. Lose both and you may have lost touch before March even hits. Split them in some fashion and nothing is solved and the current feeling continues. In that context, yes, this shapes up as a pretty exciting and important weekend.

    But this being hockey, and this being us, and this being these Hawks, it’s hard to remain in just that context. Because though this is a playoff race, it is only so because the competitors are standardbreds and not thoroughbreds. They are the fan chosen to be inhaled by The Freeze in the middle of the 5th. It’s the JV. And you can choose to enjoy the silliness of it, which we are, but even that intrude on the heaviness you want to project onto these two games. It’s hard to treat something as important when you know that at the base it’s kind of absurd (says the wrestling fan?).

    Either way, the Hawks and Avs are tied with Arizona, one point behind the Wild, who last night couldn’t get the Rangers to accept the two points they were desperately trying to foist upon them in their quest to make the biggest splat at the end of the season. Whoever wins tonight vaults back into the wildcard spots (depending on what the Wild do in Detroit tonight). So whatever we may feel on the outside, those inside the ropes will ignore the absurdity and treat this as a four-pointer.

    For the Hawks, the only change appears to be that Brent Seabrook is still a no-go, and thanks to Carl Dahlstrom being sick, Henri Jokiharju has been recalled. No word on whether he’ll play, but fuck, he’s here, and how much worse can he be than the plastic vomit you’ve been tossing out there anyway? The Hawks did give up 10 combined goals to the decidedly waddling Senators and Red Wings. The Hawks should paw at any dangling straw or piece of Laffy Taffy when it comes to their defense. Collin Delia appears to be getting the start, perhaps in the thought that he’s beaten the Avs twice before and maybe seeing their silly logo will trigger something within him. Or you don’t want to keep sending Ward out there for fear he’ll turn back into Cam Ward with more and more rolls of the dice. Or you don’t want Delia’s last NHL experience of the year to be getting pulled against the Senators. Whatever. The normal 4th line rotation will continue, and it doesn’t really matter how it shakes out.

    The Avs have sunk to these depths and unlike the atmosphere around here, they are not pleased that they are still merely “in it.” On December 19th, the Avs were 19-10-6, and at least running into the penthouse of the Central to steal the appetizers from the Jets and Predators. Then they lost to the Hawks, and look what that did to them: they are 6-14-5 since, watching the Stars and Blues wave as they fall by, and for a brief moment, were marooned at the bottom of the Central.

    The reasons aren’t hard to identify. While the top line of Mikko Rantanen–Nathan MacKinnon-Gabriel SapsuckerFrog didn’t exactly go “cold,” they weren’t being intergalactic warriors as they were before. They were just “very good.” But “very good” ain’t gonna cut the mustard when there’s almost nothing else on this team to back it up. On a given night, Carl Soderberg, or J.T. Compher, or Alex Kerfoot might hint at being legitimate secondary scoring. And on the next three you wouldn’t be able to find them with body-heat cameras. When the top unit isn’t doing magic tricks, the show is closed. That’s why you’ll see that troika split up tonight, as they’ve been put on three different lines the past two games. Which the Avs have won by a combined score of 10-1, so they roll in here with some confidence.

    Combine that with both goalies going into the shitter for a bit. Semyon Varlamov tanked in December and January, and when given the chance to usurp the top job, Phillip Grubauer fluffed his lines. Varlamov has recovered in February with a .919, and even just that might steady the ship enough for the Avs to recover and hold on loosely for the last spot in the West. Assuming their three big guns continue to BIG GUN.

    The task in written form is easy for the Hawks tonight. Find a way to keep the Avs’ top three players down. It’s not easy when they’re now on three different lines, but also their collective dangers is watered down. Start with Mac K and work out from there. You can try to that through the Fight Fire With Fire method and use Toews’s line to do it. Or you use Marcus Kruger to do it, though if he’s centering the fourth line it’s clear that Coach Cool Youth Pastor has already made his choice. Colorado still does ok metrically when those three aren’t on the ice, but they have a hard time converting it into tangible results. Keep the MacRaLog from going for two or three or more, and you’ve basically got it.

    It may not be heavy or important, but it is fun. Here we go.

     

     

    Game #62 Preview Suite

    Preview

    Spotlight

    Q&A

    Douchebag Du Jour

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineups & How Teams Were Built

  • Game #62 – Avalanche vs. Hawks Spotlight: So What Don’t You Want?

    Game #62 – Avalanche vs. Hawks Spotlight: So What Don’t You Want?

    Usually, hedging your bets isn’t a good thing. If you believe in something, throw yourself fully behind it, as any hesitancy will probably cost you. And it’s a question if the Avalanche actually did that with their goaltending situation, as they tried to move Semyon Varlamov along in his contract year before and after acquiring Phillip Grubauer. Perhaps the Avs did want to go all-in on Grubs. They’ll be thanking themselves, or all the other teams who failed to make a quality offer for Varlamov, they didn’t.

    It’s always a risk when you take on a career back-up and at least position him to be your starter. Sometimes you get Martin Jones (which was a good thing before this year) or Antti Raana. And then sometimes you get the husk of Cam Talbot (after you’ve played him to death, to be fair to him) or Scott Darling. It’s kind of impossible to know exactly how it’s going to go for a goalie who’s never had a starter’s load until he gets one.

    Being behind a Trotz team certainly helped Grubauer. In Washington, Grubauer faced an average of 28 shots against for every 60 minutes (all strengths). This year in Colorado is 31. 1, though that’s not too far off from the 30.6 he saw last season in DC as the Caps were kind of dysfunctional there for a while. And more pointedly, the Avs are giving up less scoring-chances and less high-danger ones for Grubauer than the Caps did. So they should be getting the same kind of performance that saw him put up a .923 last year.

    But they’re not. They’re getting an .890. And you can’t pin it on a shitty penalty-kill, as Grubauer’s SV% at evens has dropped (from .934 to .905) pretty aggressively, though his work on the kill isn’t making anyone write fanfic either (.870 to .813). Grubauer’s work on the kill is fifth-worst in the league, behind Ward, Smith, Mrazek, and Talbot, which definitely puts you on bee-guarding detail. And again, on the kill the Avs are giving up way less shots, chances, and high-danger chances than the Caps did last year.

    Grubauer is 27, so the fear is that this is what he is. Spasmed a few years as a quality back-up, snuffed it when given the chance to have the role to himself. Which puts the Avs in something of a bind. Semyon Varlamov hasn’t been a Greek God or anything, but his .911 is just about league-average. And he’s actually seen a touch worse defensive work in front of him than Grubs has gotten. He is a free agent, and he did just watch this team basically announce they were going to try to get along without him.

    Varlamov is 30, so should still have a few decent years, and it’s not a blessed free agent class. Bobrovsky seems destined for Florida, leaving only Jimmy Howard and Varlamov as things to be pursued. You’re going to have more than a few teams doing a playoff flameout thanks to goaltending, with words like Calgary, San Jose, possibly St. Louis, Columbus will have a hole there, Carolina as well, just off the top. That’s more than enough chairs.

    The Avs have Cale Makar arriving as soon as next season (he has nothing left to prove at the college level), and with MacKinnon and LaxativeLog on bargain deals before handing everything to Mikko Rantanen, you’d say their window opens next season (especially if they can salvage Jost, Greer, and Compher). Rebuilds have been scuttled by goaltending before, and the Avs can’t leave that to question.

    If they let Varly walk, they have a very questionable Grubauer in house and that’s it. Bobrovsky will be more expensive than Varlamov and coming off an even worse year. Howard is too old to be with the Avs when they really matter. Swing a trade? Aren’t that many looking to move a goalie, and generally if they are it’s one you’re taking something of a leap on. Which the Avs just did with Grubauer.

    They may be stuck with Varlamov after all.

     

    Game #62 Preview Suite

    Preview

    Spotlight

    Q&A

    Douchebag Du Jour

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineups & How Teams Were Built

  • Game #62 – Avalanche vs. Hawks Q&A

    Game #62 – Avalanche vs. Hawks Q&A

    We guess it’s like buses. We had our first no-show with the Sens earlier in the week, and now all of our Avs friends have disappeared. So just go over to MileHighHockey.com if you need the other perspective. We already have Sunday’s in the bag though, so this won’t happen again. 

     

    Game #62 Preview Suite

    Preview

    Spotlight

    Q&A

    Douchebag Du Jour

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineups & How Teams Were Built

  • Game #62 – Avalanche vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: John Elway Fuck*n Sucks

    Game #62 – Avalanche vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: John Elway Fuck*n Sucks

    The Avs are one of the more colorless outfits in the league, behind their top line at least (do we actually miss Patrick Roy?), so let’s take the opportunity to bitch about a Denver icon. There is no idol we can’t throw stones at repeatedly.

    There was a time when John Elway was one of the cooler athletes around. John Elway is what Rex Grossman would have been if he had feet and was tall. Elway was blessed with a bazooka as a right arm, told Jim Irsay to go fuck himself, and ended up as a Bronco for a city and organization that desperately needed any marker whatsoever. Then Elway started chucking the ball anywhere and everywhere at high speeds when he wasn’t charging out of the pocket simply to get a nice breeze going through is admittedly amazingly flowing locks. It was utter chaos, but it worked because just about no one else was doing it and in 80s football it was super easy to confuse players who were already massively concussed and coked out,  as well as defensive coordinators who were no less than 78-years-old and ate their own snot.

    Elway got to three Super Bowls with rodeo clowns as receivers and a defense bereft of anyone with legs, and nearly sank the entire city of Cleveland into Lake Erie himself, which pretty much everyone agrees would have been a great arrangement for everyone involved. Of course, the Broncos got smashed up to an unrecognizable goop by the Giants, Niners, and Redskins. And then we had to deal with the the whole debate about whether someone like Elway could win a Super Bowl, essentially playing Tecmo Bowl on an NFL field.

    And then he did, but he did it by just turning around and handing it off and never throwing the ball more than seven feet (thankfully, he did save us from a second Favre Super Bowl). He became what he was supposed to stand against. He became what we abhorred, and meanwhile all the grumbling old football men shook their heads in approval about how Elway “had finally learned.” He went from youthful exuberance and fun and surprise and illogical success to a buttoned-down corporate stooge. Elway is a baby boomer’s wet dream.

    Of course, he was buying every goddamn car dealership from Nebraska to Salt Lake City to carry out the metaphor into real life, and has more money than The Pentaverate. Which he leveraged that into the Broncos presidency, where he’s essentially made baffling football decision after another (this is the team that drafted Tebow and played him, remember), but no one cares because they won a Super Bowl after signing one of the three best QBs of all time and somehow lucking into Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, and most importantly having Cam Newton turn into urine. Since then they haven’t played a playoff game and just traded for Joe Flacco. Dude’s a moron, but he’ll be in his position forever because he’s ungodly rich and no Denver resident would speak ill of him for fear of being put in the stocks.

    Meanwhile, he’s been backing whatever corpse they prop up in front of him that’s Republican and spouting more bullshit beyond that. Again, it doesn’t matter. Elway could shoot a teenage girl in front of Union Station in Denver and piss on her corpse and he’d still get applause.

    Fuck John Elway.

     

    Game #62 Preview Suite

    Preview

    Spotlight

    Q&A

    Douchebag Du Jour

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineups & How Teams Were Built

  • Game #62 – Avalanche vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Game #62 – Avalanche vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Note: Corsica has shut down so these do not include the last two games. If it is not back up after the weekend we’ll figure out something else. 

     

    Game #62 Preview Suite

    Preview

    Spotlight

    Q&A

    Douchebag Du Jour

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineups & How Teams Were Built

  • Game #62 – Avalanche vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

    Game #62 – Avalanche vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

    Notes: IMPORTANT: Corsica is still down so we were not able to update players’ individual xGF%. We hope to have another way soon…the top line has been split up to try and even out their secondary scoring problem. They’ve won their last two by a combined 10-1 since doing it, something is clicking…Soderberg had three points in their last game, which is good because he had gone six scoreless before…Strangely this is ThreeYaksAndADog’s first 30-goal season…Boy they don’t want Barrie and Graves anywhere near the defensive zone, huh?…Varlamov shut out the Knights and held the Jets to one in his last two starts, so he will get the nod tonight…

    Notes: The defensive outlook is a guess. Dahlstrom was sick, Seabrook won’t play, and Jokharju was recalled but it wasn’t clear if he would play. We say let him play and grab the brass ring. It’s what Dahlstrom did, after all. It’s not like there’s a better solution…Caligula is back in after missing most of the last game after getting a Toews stick in the eye…But boy, Saad sure did look good up there, huh? He’s been creating his own shot of his late, which is a new trick…Sikura continues to do well in limited, sheltered work, with a 62% share against Detroit. You feel if he gets one goal he might get a few…

     

    Game #62 Preview Suite

    Preview

    Spotlight

    Q&A

    Douchebag Du Jour

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineups & How Teams Were Built

  • And I Walk Around Like I Got a 36” Chain

    And I Walk Around Like I Got a 36” Chain

    All stats from NaturalStatTrick.com, hockey-reference.com, and NHL.com.

    Since going 10-2-0 in the last 12, there’s been more swagger and flexing about the Hawks’s playoff prospects. If the Hawks win tonight against the Avs and Sunday against the Stars—two of four teams directly above them in the wild card race—they can more firmly entrench themselves in a wild card spot. If nothing else, this run has been fun.

    But as we’ve talked about ad nauseum, none of the numbers flesh out a team that you would think should even be sniffing the playoffs. Their current-22 goal differential would be the worst among playoff teams by far, and it’s an improvement over what it was earlier. Since December 18, which is when the power play first started taking off, the Hawks have had a +13 goal differential, which is pretty good. Prior to that, it was -35. In four of their last five, they’ve allowed at least four goals, including four to Detroit and seven (fucking seven) to Ottawa.

    Even if you only look at the stats beginning around the time when everything started getting hot (December 18; 16-7-3 since then), shit isn’t pretty.

    • They’re second worst in 5v5 CF% since that time, ahead of only New Jersey.
    • Their high-danger CF% of 39.70 is deadass last in the league, behind even the woeful Kings (42.36) and Ducks (43.97).
    • Their scoring chances for percentage (SCF%) is worst in the league at 43.33.
    • Their shots on goal for percentage (SF%) is second worst in the league at 46.31, ahead of only the Edmonton Oilers, who are less a hockey team and more a Big Brothers of America for adults that Connor McDavid is not allowed to opt out of.
    • In that time, Delia and Ward have posted a .920 SV% between the two of them at 5v5, which is excellent albeit unsustainable (given the horrid shot totals), and .908 overall, which is fine.

    These are just a few of the stats that indicate that the Hawks should be a lottery team rather than in the thick of a playoff run.

    So why the fuck is there a whisper from none other than Elliotte Friedman that the Hawks could go after Artemi Panarin as a rental?

    At the top, let’s be clear: Friedman himself admits that that would make absolutely no sense whatsoever and it’s just what he heard. Anyone who’s watched this team since the middle of December can tell you that the Hawks aren’t hurting for offense. Since December 18, the Hawks have the best PP% by far and the second-most total goals (105 vs. the Sharks’s 111). They’ll have three 30-goal scorers (maybe four if Saad keeps his pace up) and likely two 40-goal scorers in Top Cat and Garbage Dick. If anything has worked, it’s been the offense.

    This infatuation with Artemi Panarin, especially as the deadline approaches, is the most asinine thing I’ve seen since Stan Bowman signed Brandon Manning to a 2-year, $2.25 million per deal last summer.

    Generally speaking, I get the desire. Panarin was awesome while he was with the Hawks. He was fun on the ice and in 2015–16 helped launch the Hawks to the best PP% they’ve ever had since The Core conglomerated. He’s currently on pace for 80–85 points, which would make an already dangerous Top 6 for the Hawks even more deadly. As Sam has said (and I’m starting to admit myself), the Hawks lost that Panarin–Saad trade, even if Saad is still good. But what can Panarin do for them on offense right now that Alex DeBrincat isn’t already doing? I get that you can never have enough scorers, but at what cost?

    Assume Columbus is willing to send Panarin to Chicago for the right package. What does that look like? You have to figure DeBrincat is absolutely in there. They’ll likely want top-end prospects, like Strome, Boqvist, Beaudin, Harju, and (not or) Barratt. Maybe you can convince them to swap Boqvist or Harju for Gustafsson; the specifics aren’t terribly important. What is relevant is that if you want Panarin at the deadline, there’s no way you’re getting him and keeping DeBrincat and at least two of your top prospects.

    That would be moving backward or, at best, standing still, because DeBrincat has been close to if not better than Panarin at scoring this year. DeBrincat has more goals than Panarin, both total (33 vs. 24) and on the power play (10 vs. 6), with just five more games played. He has more power play points total than Panarin (21 vs. 14). Panarin bests him in assists (43 vs. 28) and total points (67 vs. 61). Although Panarin’s possession numbers are pristine, if you think those would carry over in Chicago, then I’m the wallet inspector.

    Panarin would be a fantastic piece on a team that isn’t allowing 35+ shots per game. As fun as this run is, it’s exceedingly unlikely that the Hawks can outscore their defensive woes against teams with real goaltenders and defensive schemes, as we’ve seen in the losses against Columbus and Boston. And that’s all Panarin would really provide: a hope that he can outscore the mistakes the blue line constantly makes. Are you willing to bet DeBrincat plus prospects, picks, and probably more on a run that, in any other year, would have the Hawks out of a playoff spot by 10 points or more? I’m not. This playoff run is fun, but you don’t go chasing Panarin for it, especially not for the price he’d likely command in top-line talent and prospects.

    Once this Russian Roulette playoff farce ends, we’ll have all the time in the world to talk about signing Panarin as a free agent. I’ll preface those discussions with a hardline “No, thank you,” at least until the Hawks have exhausted all options at a top-4 D-man, whether that’s through a signing (EK65), a trade (Dougie, Hampus), or miracle development from Boqvist and Beaudin.

    This team is still closer to bad than good, and Panarin doesn’t move the needle enough, especially not now. They need a top-4 D-man or two. They either need Delia to step back up, Crawford to step back in, or continue to get a .920+ from Ward. None of those things involve Panarin. So, ride this out with what you’ve got, try to trade guys like Artie and Hayden, and if the NHL’s blob of mediocrity pushes the Hawks above it all and into the playoffs like the overripe zit they are, that’s gravy.

    The confidence is fun. The swagger is fun. This whole run is fun. But it’s all in the context of how awful October, November, and most of December were. When you look at the difference between then and now, it’s easy to mistake a cock ring for a 36-inch chain.