We can’t give you his name, as he’s shrouded in secrecy. He used to run PensionPlanPuppets, but now he just sits in a dark room plotting his revenge. You can follow him @MLSE, if you dare.
Game #48 Preview
We can’t give you his name, as he’s shrouded in secrecy. He used to run PensionPlanPuppets, but now he just sits in a dark room plotting his revenge. You can follow him @MLSE, if you dare.
Game #48 Preview
It’s hard to figure a collection of media in one city in any other sport that drives everyone more insane than the Toronto Maple Leafs beat. Not the Yankees in New York, at least not in a decade. The Patriots media outside one Bill Simmons is mostly fine, and at least those two teams either do or used to win a lot. The volume was at least explainable. Maybe Red Sox Nation? Some would say Cubs-dom, and we wouldn’t argue.
Look, there’s no reason any of us should know who Mark Arcobello is. A career AHL-er is not something that should be a household name. And yet for all the Leafs media and fans bleating about how he would solve so much over the years because he had a good Corsi in like five games, we know exactly who he is.
We know that everyone hates Leo Komarov. And Roman Polak, though that one is just funny. Because at whatever intermission you’re watching somehow the Leafs are the subject. It never stops. If Mike Babcock cuts a loud fart, it’s on the front page of various websites and discussed by Bob McKenzie.
It’s a wonder why anyone deals with it. You wouldn’t blame Auston Matthews if he just held out after this third season and declared there was no way he was fucking dealing with this. Phil Kessel’s two rings are maybe the greatest fuck you to any collection of media in the history of sports. All he did was score and play his ass off for a terrible team and a terrible coach and they just roasted him for it. Look where he is now and look where the Leafs are.
No matter which trade takes place in the league, the immediate reaction always seems to be, “How does this affect the Leafs?” Sportsnet hired some psycho who has jars of his own urine on the shelves behind him doing videos from his basement. Even Canadiens fans aren’t this deluded and they’re way deluded. And don’t even get us started on Don Cherry, who is still yelling about some Finnish goalie the Leafs took in 2002 in the 5th round.
As exciting as the Leafs are on the ice, we hope they never win a goddamn thing. Watching this whole collection of misanthropes stab their own hearts is just how the world needs to be.
Game #48 Preview
Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes
CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60
CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against
G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes
xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending.
PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.
Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates
Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone
TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against
Game #48 Preview
The plane hasn’t quite crashed into the goddamn mountain, but it’s close, so what better time to give one of the newbies, John Pullega, his maiden voyage on the podcast in the place of an ill Cieslak. As always, the podcast will be free from the paywall, so grab the audio after the jump.
For the first time, I’ve seen a real wave of sentiment that the Hawks need to make a major change behind the bench. Some have suggested in the front office. We joke about it here a lot, and we certainly criticize the decorated Hawks coach more than most. But it’s never so simple, and before the Hawks or anyone could conclude that this would be the right course of action one has to figure out what the intent of this season and what is really going on here first.
As we’ve talked about at length on the podcast, it’s hard to know what to think when we don’t know what exactly what Stan Bowman had in mind for this season. If the Hawks thought they could or were in any way inclined to be as transparent as other teams in town, what would they have told us before the season? I can’t take credit for the idea, it’s Fifth Feather’s, but there’s two ways this could have gone.
One is that this is truly a transitional season for the Hawks. One they probably should have embarked on a year ago or maybe even right after the last Cup, but that’s another discussion. That if they’d said while they wish to be competitive and make the playoffs, the main objective of this season was to bed in Schmaltz, DeBrincat, Forsling (whoops), now Duclair, Murphy, and let’s throw in Hinostroza and Sikura at the end for funsies (Kampf too if you want). That really what they wanted to get these players reps, ingrained, evaluated, and then have whoever makes the cut ready for one last assault on the summit next year, which is all you’re going to get with the aging “Core Five.”
And on that level, some of the decisions make some sense? I have to put a “?” there because I’m not really sure. If you wanted to see how Forsling and Rutta would do in the deep end, you’d give them the most d-zone starts of everyone. Which Q did. I guess if you squint you’d see if Murphy can play both sides, which he’s proven he can. But that seems a stretch. You’d try Top Cat as a playmaker on a lot of lines instead of a finisher…maybe? This is Schmaltz’s first real run at center, which you’d definitely do.
But on this level, the mistakes are greater than that. It was clear early on that Forsling wasn’t built to start so much in his own end, and a player who openly talked about losing confidence last year was having his ravaged again by such usage. He was booted off the power play even though that should be something he specializes in. Top Cat set all kinds of records playing the left side in the OHL, and has played there for about 12 minutes here. Isn’t it more prudent to build a player up in the softest spot to have success when he’s 19? And then see what his flexibility is? You could argue it took far too long to let Schmaltz just stay in the middle.
The handling of Murphy is the real red X here, and once again speaks to discord from front office to behind the bench which is the same shit we’ve talked about for years that the Hawks were talented enough to play over in the past but aren’t now. His scratches are simply petulant, given that he’s been the Hawks best d-man over the season. This is Q still bitching that his toy in Hammer–his declining, aging, slowing toy that was about to be more expensive–was taken away. While he’s certainly within his rights to be cranky, did Stan and Q never have a meeting after last season where it was laid out what the plan was? Should your coach be so gobsmacked at a trade as Q clearly was last summer? While we’ve seen the problems when Q gets a say in player decisions, or anyone above Stan does as well, I’m not sure that he should be in the dark either.
The more I watch this team the more I think this really was the plan, because everything Stan has done has been to get younger, faster, cheaper, and open up more space for his draft picks which hasn’t always been the case. And maybe if this team is ready to “go for it” next year (highly debatable what that would actually result in), you’d want Q there because that’s what he does. He’s just not the best for development, and that ignores whether or not some of the veterans have tired of his voice (which we’ll never prove).
If you take the other tack, that this year was about “ONE GOAL” as it always is, it’s gets murkier. There isn’t much Q can do to overcome the loss of Corey Crawford. Q can’t make Toews and Saad score. But even before that, if the goal was to amass as many points as possible. then why were Forsling and Rutta in the d-zone so much and on the kill? Why is Patrick Sharp anywhere near the top six? How can you have this power play? And how can it change personnel and tactics seemingly every opportunity? The scratching of Murphy makes even less sense in this context. Gustafsson and Oesterle going from either the minors or pressbox straight onto both special teams is confounding. If it was about development, it would make slightly more sense, but wouldn’t at least Oesterle have played from jump street?
These are all answers we won’t get because I don’t know what the long term or even short term goals were here. The simplest explanation is that Stan is remaking the entire roster under that “Core Five” (yes, Seabrook doesn’t really count anymore but he’s not going anywhere) either to give them one last chance either next year or preparing the ground for when they aren’t the front of this team anymore. But it doesn’t seem like his coach is playing the same game, once again.
And if that’s going to be the case going forward, one has to go. And Stan’s never gotten to hire a coach before.
Well, I guess anything is better than last Saturday’s shitshow against the Islanders, right? Anything is better than the, well, I won’t even call it a half-assed attempt against the Red Wings, it was a no-assed attempt. Is this the most pathetic way to rationalize a season that is quickly disappearing down the toilet? Yes. Yes it is. To the bullets!
– The Hawks actually didn’t play badly—they got Glass’d. By the latter half of the second, they had outshot the Lightning by a decent margin (they ended that period leading in shots 30-17), and they dominated possession. They had a 64.5 CF% at evens in the second, and in the first they (barely) had the edge as well (51.7 CF%). The Hawks were pressuring on offense and had four high-danger chances in the second period, yet the Lightning got a short-handed goal late in the period, which blunted the momentum the Hawks had going that whole frame. And how did that come about, you ask? Chris Kunitz banked a shot off Glass and the Feel Good Story kicked it into his own net. And making it worse was the fact that it was on a delayed penalty thanks to Mikhail Sergachev being a general dumbshit. Yes, it appears that Kunitz made a hand pass prior to the goal and the play technically should have been blown dead. But shit happens, the Hawks were already getting the benefit of a penalty being called, and when your goalie scores on himself in that situation, you can’t really blame it on a missed call.
– Isn’t it just the damndest thing, when Kempny and Murphy play and Forsling and Rutta don’t, our opponents have fewer shots and we have fewer defensive breakdowns? Now, in full disclosure both Kempny and Murphy had pretty shitty numbers possession-wise (36.7 and 42.4 CF% respectively), and of course the Hawks still fucking lost, but giving up 31 shots to the league’s best team after they had given up 46 in the game before? You can’t tell me the personnel changes and these numbers aren’t related.
– In the most obvious statement of the night, Andrei Vasilevskiy is really fucking good. The Hawks had plenty of quality changes—e.g., Jurco in the second, Duclair in the third—and they had six power plays including a two-man advantage. Yes, their power play remains as terrible as ever, but Vasilevskiy still stopped 40 shots on the night. I just made the second-most obvious statement when mentioning the dismal power play, but we’ll just leave it at that. Still complete clown shoes.
– It felt like Patrick Kane was triple-shifted all night. In fact he wasn’t, but he did have a shitload of ice time: 23:30. Kane spent more time on the ice than four of our six defensemen (only Keith and Oesterle had more time, and for Oesterle it was a matter of seconds. Same goes for Toews but I’m not talking about other forwards here). Kane finished the night with three shots, and he and Schmaltz were moving even if they were dragging Sharp around most of the time. So I get why this happened, but when you have to play Kane that much it feels like a desperate move by a team running out of options, time, and trust, which is most certainly now the case.
On Wednesday the Hawks play the Leafs, who lost tonight to the inexplicably-on-fire Avs, who are in the process of leaving us in the dust in the Central as they’re tied with Minnesota and chasing other also-relevant teams. Have we passed the point of no return on this season and playoff hopes? It’s not entirely certain, and keeping a game like tonight’s close—when we’re playing a far superior opponent—almost gives you reason to hold onto hope, but that in and of itself is a harsh indictment of where we’re at. Onward and upward.
vs. 
RECORDS: Lightning 31-12-3 Hawks 22-18-6
PUCK DROP: 7:30pm
TV: WGN Locally, NBCSN Nationally
KILLING TIME AT XQUISITE: Raw Charge
You know what you probably don’t need when your team is currently a mess and lost and feeling cold and alone? A visit from the league’s best team (fuck off, Vegas. Not buying your bullshit). But you don’t get to pick your schedule, so after the Hawks coughed up odd-colored hairballs against the decidedly not impressive Red Wings and Islanders, they’ll get a face-full of the Lightning tonight. Mama said there’d be days like this.
If there’s any consolation, and there likely isn’t, it’s that it’s a slightly beat up Lightning team. Both Victor Hedman and Ondrej Palat will miss this one and are likely out a little while. That’s caused a shuffle in both the forwards and defense, but this doesn’t really matter to Tampa. A little blip here of late has seen the Bruins pull within three points and the Caps in the other division within four for top spot, but it’s hard to see either team overtaking the Lightning unless it really goes wrong for them.
Still, they’ve lost their last three, including to the Knights Who Say Golden and the Wild, but that probably is only a bad thing for the Hawks because one of their hopes is they might catch a slightly disinterested opponent and now that’s probably not the case. And really, in this little doldrum section there’s nothing too structurally wrong. Yes, Hedman is a big miss as he’s almost all the drive from the back and was having a Norris-calibre season. But with Sergachev’s development and the still beating heart of Anton Stralman they haven’t lost as much of that as you think. Yes, Girard and Coburn are still here to provide a something’s-gone-off-in-the-fridge smell, but they’ve been able to cover that up for the most part.
They’re also just not getting the bounces at the moment. Stamkos has five goals in his last 17, which is well below his usual rate. Kucherov has gone cold a little bit as well, with one goal in his last seven games and three in his last 11. These are not things that are going to continue forever.
This is still a team that can pretty much hurt you from anywhere, with Brayden Point on the second line moving Tyler Johnson to a wing, but also a third center if they so choose. Yanni Gourde has been extremely effective on the third line, even if Alex Killorn is heading for Code Blue in a hurry. There’s just too much depth here.
And whatever the Hawks do tonight they have to stay out of the box. Given how their kill is going, given it’s going to be Glass Jeff in net, and given it’s Kucherov and Stamkos getting looks that’s going to end badly for everyone involved if it were to happen too much.
Right, to the Hawks then. Once again Q is going to hit the blender, and only in a few ways that make any sense. Patrick Sharp’s rotting corpse will join Schmaltz and Kane on the top line. Duclair will get to stick with Toews and Saad, and they flashed a couple times against the Islanders. Both Tommy Wingels and Lance Bouma, who were the heroes of the broadcast not so long ago, look to be scratched as Tomas Jurco is going to be aired out alongside David Kampf and Vinnie Smalls. Kampf slots down to accomodate the return of Artem Anisimov, who’ll slot between Hartman and DeBrincat. Whether Top Cat and Hartman are enough speed and control to counter the fact that Arty can’t move, we’ll just have to see. But Schmaltz has played too well at center to move out of there just yet, so it’s worth a shot.
Defensively, Forsling has been farmed out and you’d have to believe that Rutta is going to sit because he was awful against the Islanders. Then again, so was Seabrook but we’ve seen the once scratch we’re going to get, I feel. Gustafsson’s two points will keep him in the lineup even though his defensive GPS was up his own ass against the Isles as well. As a third pairing though, you’ll live with it. Kempny and Murphy will return together, though no one would blame them if they just spent the whole game spitting water on Q. I would.
This Hawks team has been so weird that it really wouldn’t be much of a shock if they beat Tampa. Or if they get their nuts punted through their skull. Glass against this kind of firepower, even without Palat and Hedman, is a scary thought and the Bolts will know all about the rebounds he leaves everywhere. Whatever happens, it should be interesting. It just might not be enriching.
Game #47 Preview
There’s little question that the Lightning are the best team in the league. While Vegas would love to claim that and their points total says it, the Lightning are just really good instead of feasting on luck and the unprofessionalism of hockey players who apparently just discovered that Las Vegas exists or something.
What’s scary about the Lightning is that according to the metrics, there really isn’t a weak spot to find on them.
To wit: Currently, the Lightning are fourth in the league in Corsi-percentage, and fifth in expected-goals percentage. But what makes that more impressive is that it’s not a case of a few players boosting the rate, and carrying others who are dragging them down. They’re solid 1-12 at forward and 1-6 on defense. Let us go further into it.
When you look at the individual players, no player is more than two percentage points below the team rate when looking at their relative Corsi-percentage. That’s Braydon Coburn at -2.03. And no player is more than two points above the team rate relatively either, which is Andrej Sustr at +2.1.
You don’t find that with the other teams at the top of the possession marks. The Bruins see a difference of about 11 points in their relative marks, with Patrice Bergeron at the top at +6.19 and David Krejci at the bottom at -5.75. The Stars have a difference around 14 points from their bottom player relatively to their top. The Predators have a difference of 16. The Hawks, who yes are still one of the better Corsi teams in the league, have a difference of 13. There just isn’t a hole the Lightning have to cover for.
It’s the same when it comes to the types of chances they create and give up. Coburn is their worst relative expected goals player at -5.7 percentage points, while Brayden Point is their best at +2.96 percentage points. The Stars have a 16-point difference from their worst expected goals to their best. The Oilers do as well. The Canes have a 17-point one. The Bruins have a 14-point gap. There’s just nowhere to go with the Lightning.
This is about as solid as a group in this department as we’ve seen in years. Which bodes well for the spring. Even if teams are able to keep Stamkos and Kucherov quiet at even-strength, and that’s a challenge, and even if they can keep Johnson and Point on a leash behind that (getting harder), the Lightning can get you from the third and fourth lines too if they have to. That’s how teams end up on parades.
What’s scary for the rest of the Atlantic Division is that the Bolts are probably going to be able to keep this depth together for a while. Only Namestnikov requires a new deal next year of the players who matter, and he’s restricted. Sustr does as well, but that’s up to you whether that matters. Kucherov could demand 8-10 million or more in two years’ time, but Stralman, Coburn, and Girardi are off the books then as well.
We probably should get used to this.
Game #47 Preview
Game #47 Preview