Everything Else

Game #52 – Hawks at Flames Q&A: Fairly Sure He Has Mittens Pinned To His Jacket At All Times

By Sam Fels 1725 0

@BookOfFLoob is just one of those things that stuck to our shoe on Twitter. That sort of thing happens in the digital world. Everyone calls him Floob. If you want to make jokes about “Loob,” go right ahead. But he won’t have any idea what you’re talking about. We’re fairly sure he’s afraid of girls. And they of him. 

Last time we saw the Flames on New Year’s Eve, they were just hovering around the last playoff spot, not meeting expectations, and still waiting to take off. A month later, they’re hovering around the last playoff spot, kind of not meeting expectations, and waiting to take off. Why hasn’t it come to a boil in Calgary?
There are several different things, both real and real but exaggerated, that I could blame this on, and that list is too big to write it all out. But I’m going to try:
  • Troy Brouwer. You know the monorail episode of the Simpsons where Homer throws the M off the Monorail sign as an anchor and it sticks into the Lard Lad donut to stop the train? Like it’s anchor designed to slow everything down and halt everyone’s production? Remember that one? Me neither. Troy Brouwer fucking sucks. (See? -ED)
  • Flames fans doing the C of Red chant during the American anthem (if you don’t know, I won’t tell you. There’s no way you come out the other side of that rabbit hole a better person)
  • Dave Cameron’s experimental power play where he attempts to figure out how long you can try something that doesn’t work over and over again until maybe it does work once except it doesn’t and everyone is miserable. Dave Cameron is a capitalist.
  • You. Specifically you, Sam Fels.
  • TJ Brodie’s slow descent into shithood. For a guy that once looked like he was going to crawl his way into top 10 defensemen in the league territory, he’s decided his new plan of action is to Seabrook this entire operation. The prevailing theory now is he once looked amazing due to his pairing with Mark Giordano, and maybe that means Giordano is just a little bit incredible.
  • The death of Scorch. We always knew that was going to have lingering effects. Miss you every day forever, Scorch.
  • Goaltending. I’ll get shit on for this one, but Mike Smith, who indeed has been amazing at times, is flipping that other side of his own coin where his great performances are being met with his garbage ones. The next time he tracks the puck will be the first time. He’s like a bigger, dumber Jonathan Quick and is luckier that more pucks hit him than don’t.
  • I have to think 9/11 is at least a little bit responsible.
 
Do we know if Glengarry Glen Gulutzan falls into the “Moron” category or “Not A Moron” category yet?
 
First of all, he’s Glen Gu Tang Zan, if we’re doing nicknames. Anyway, if you and I are morons, and we most certainly are, than yeah, of course, Glen Gulutzan is a Hall of Fame oaf. There are so many wrinkles that need ironing and he ignores them like women ignoring Sam’s phone calls after the first date (Notice a theme here? -ED).
But that’s not to put the blame on him for what’s been going on lately. There are maybe 4 or 5 coaches in the league that have that profound an effect on the results, and he ain’t one of them. His usage of players is troubling, to put it mildly, but the guy knows how to craft a breakout, so it kinda evens out. The team just KILLS it 5 on 5, it’s when they have to call on the special teams (Hi there, Dave Cameron’s power play) where hockey goes to die.
There are a lot of fans out there who want Gully fired. And to those people I say “Congratulations, here’s Dave Tippett. Try to enjoy another hockey game even once before you die.”
You can’t.
At least there’s Dougie Hamilton, right?
I just defended Glen Gulutzan, but it is borderline criminal to keep Dougie Hamilton off the ice as much as the coaching staff in Calgary seems to delight in doing. I am extremely good about talking about this in a calm, rational way, which is good because it would be really easy to fly off the goddamn handle about how you have an elite goddamn defenseman who can carry a team on his back and make you look like a bunch of Gods, but no, you’d rather give more ice time to Michael fucking Stone, because some shit about how he’s less of a liability defensively, like you’d even fucking know what that means, you clod, why don’t you go fuck yourself if you’re not going to play the guy who gets shit done every time he’s on the ice. It’s the same garbage from last year where it took you half a season that you’ll never get back that he should be getting closer to 30 minutes anight so you don’t need to “rely” on Deryk Engelland, holy FUCK, Deryk Engelland, and why did you go back to that formula this year and why is it taking longer to right the ship? What in the hell is going on out there? Who hurt you Glen? Was it Dougie? Did he call you names? Did he give you a noogie? Did he do something so heinous that you would actually lessen your chances of winning every game by not playing one of the 4 or 5 most important players on your team for way more time than you already do?
It would be pretty bad if I couldn’t keep my cool while talking about it.
The Flames don’t seem to be in a position to just punt on the season given their development curve, so what might they do at the deadline? And are you afraid it’ll be stupid?
Oh, trust me. It will be stupid. But it doesn’t have to be.
Michael Frolik has come back from injury, and he gets back on a line with Mikael Backlund and the beautiful boy Matthew Tkachuk, forming the world’s most perfect trio. They’ve called up their best player from the minors in Andrew Mangiapane, and once they learn to give him some ice time, that will be another bonus. Also Kris Versteeg is coming back sooner than everyone thought, and I know Blackhawks fans have a hard time believing this, but he’s been really effective in Calgary, and they’ve certainly missed him.
The biggest factor is Rasmus Andersson, a defenseman who is WAY too good to still be in the minors, and could theoretically be playing on the second pairing in Calgary right now. The thing that’s holding him back is a traffic jam of veteran defensemen who Rasmus is better than, and ones who could be traded. Michael Stone has trade value, somehow, despite being a Tanooki Mario statue, and could be traded out of town to either recoup some draft picks or get a good prospect from some of the dumber GMs out there. Getting rid of either him or Travis “Whoops This Didn’t Work Out At All” Hamonic would pave the way for Andersson as well, and balance would be restored.
Which is why they’ll probably trade for like Dan Girardi or something, because apparently they’re not mean enough.
Given that the Kings actually suck and the Ducks are weird, the Flames really should still get into the Pacific’s three playoff spots, right?
 
Isn’t it great that the Kings suck again?
I can’t believe Vegas is going to be the thing that probably somehow ruins this for everyone.

 

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Game #38 – Hawks vs. Flames Preview/Seaweed Facial: Goodbye ’17, You Know What I Mean

By Sam Fels 2324 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 18-14-5   Flames 18-16-4

PUCK DROP: 8pm

TV: WGN

FRIENDS OF CAL AND GARY: Flames Nation

The Hawks will close out 2017 in southern Alberta, because honestly where would you rather be, and for the most part 2017 has been a year the Hawks and their fans won’t shed any tears over. It started back with some brilliant hockey in the middle of last season, but ended with a humbling, if not downright humiliating, playoff defeat and a stop-start half season to this one. Things have to get better when the calendar turns, that’s for sure.

What they’ll find is a Flames team that is just about as weird and stop-start as they have been. Before the season, looking at the Flames top four and at least their top two lines, you thought if Mike Smith could at least be competent (a big ask) they should challenge for the top of the Pacific. And the thing is, Mike Smith has mostly been competent. His backups have been anything but, but Smith has been ok. And yet the Flames still find themselves complaining that the goggles do nothing.

It’s been more than one problem for them. For one, that top four hasn’t been THE TOP FOUR you would have expected, at least not until of late. Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton (a grown man named “Dougie”) have been beyond excellent, but for the first two months T.J. Brodie and newly-acquired Travis Hamonic couldn’t find the A-button on a Nintendo controller. They’ve somewhat regulated of late, but it hasn’t been the bread and roses Flames fans hoped for.

Secondly, the Flames have been especially agoraphobic in front of the net — i.e. terrified of putting the puck in an open space. They can’t score. Both on the power play and at evens, they have some of the lowest shooting percentages in the league. Their underlying numbers are where you want them to be, they should be scoring more, and yet they’re putting it everywhere except where it should go like it was post-prom.

Combine that with Jaromir Jagr being hurt and old and thus unable to give the Flames a representative third line, and you see the problems. He’s moved to replace Michael Frolik on the 3M line now that our beloved Fro’s bottom jaw is currently a jigsaw puzzle. A couple promising kids in Jankowski and Bennett are trying to give the Flames a third option at the moment.

Still, with Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland and the 3M line that’s more than a lot of teams have. And the Flames are going to have to find another option because Smith’s numbers have declined as the season has gone on. Odd for a goalie who is 35, I know. And we still aren’t really sure if head coach Glen Gulutzan Glenross is a Moron or Not A Moron.

As for the Hawks, the lineup will remain the same as it was on Friday, including Jeff Glass in hs hometown. Again, this is a great story but asking for more than what you’ve already got from him seems an awfully big risk. On another night, with that rebound control, Glass could have given up a touchdown. He might not be so lucky tonight, and Anton Forsberg has not been bad outside of a couple of ugly outings. Vancouver certainly had nothing to do with him, so what are you doing to his confidence? He’s clearly the more important of the two going forward.

But hey, we get more Kempny and we get more of that intriguing third line with the three kids. So let’s not head into the new year bitching that much.

The Flames and Hawks are going to be competing for the same wild card spots, or at least that’s how it looks. So these two points are going to matter when we total it all up in April. After biffing Vancouver hardcore, the Hawks simply can’t here.

 

 

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The Thinking (Or Drinking?) Man’s Awards

By Sam Fels 2686 0

I like to do this every so often. I’m not sure it makes total sense, and it certainly would make more sense to do it in a couple weeks when the season is half over. But I’m here now and it’s rattling around in my head so let’s do it and circle back in a month or so.

Some of the NHL awards, or more to the point the criteria that are used to pick the winners, are borked. There’s no other way to put it. MVP… that’s usually easy to figure out as long as you don’t get too mired into what “valuable” means and really just pick player of the year. I suppose this year, at least so far, we could get a real dumb debate about how Kucherov and Stamkos are actually vaulting each other and hence aren’t as valuable as say, John Tavares who’s doing more with less. Fine, whatever. Pick any of the three and I don’t think you’re wrong.

Vezina is usually pretty easy, though can get muddied by win totals much like pitcher-wins used to be the defining characteristic for Cy Young winners in the past (like last year. Fucking Rick Porcello?). Still, with save-percentage and GAA are the best we have, and this year it’s Corey Crawford and if he keeps it up and doesn’t even make the finalist list I’m going to go kick several people in the shins and not explain why to leave them in the same fog of confusion I will be in. By any measure it’s Crow, as he’s got the best GAA among starters, the best save-percentage among starters, and the best difference between his save-percentage and his expected save-percentage, given what the team in front of him is surrendering. Good god, he’s been so good.

It’s the Norris and the Selke that always have the cloudiest parameters. The Selke has basically become “What center do we all know who scores a lot, wins faceoffs, and we’re pretty sure has good metrics but don’t check?” And that answer is always Patrice Bergeron. And you could hand this award to Bergeron from here until he retires, take Nick Lidstrom’s last Norris away because that was just stupid, melt it down, turn it into another Selke, and give that to Bergeron, and you wouldn’t really be wrong. But I think we can do better. Let’s see:

So if we’re looking for best defensive forwards, one place we can start is the best forwards at restricting attempts against so far this year. We won’t use goals, because that’s too dependent on the goalies behind these forwards which is out of their control. So you’re best forwards for corsi-against per 60:

  1. Adam Lowry – WPG
  2. Taylor Leier – PHI
  3. Brandon Tanev – WPG
  4. Mikko Salomaki
  5. Pierre-Luc Dubois – CBJ

I can assure you that none of these players will get a Selke vote. But when they’re out there, their teams surrender the least attempts, which has to account for something.

If we go a bit deeper, we can use xGA/60, to not only use pure attempts but the types of chances against that these forwards are on the ice for.

  1. Lowry
  2. Tanev
  3. Jason Zucker – MN
  4. Oskar Sundqvist – STL
  5. Mikko Koivu – MN

Again, we see Lowry and Tanev at the top of the list, and as they play on the same line together, that makes sense.

But it isn’t so simple, is it? Because you’d want to suss out who are doing really dynamo defensive work and who is just benefitting from playing on a great defensive team. So, you’re relative CA/60 leaders are:

  1. H. Sedin – Van
  2. Tanev
  3. Evgeny Dadonov – FLA
  4. Marcus Kruger – CAR
  5. Lowry

And Relative xGA/60 leaders:

  1. Ondrej Kase – ANA
  2. Lowry
  3. Mitch Marner – TOR (ain’t that some shit?)
  4. Zac Rinaldo – AZ (what?)
  5. Carl Hagelin – PIT

So if anyone actually used these numbers, you’d have a pretty convincing case for Adam Lowry this year, yes? The problem of course is that Lowry is skating third line shifts, with Scheifele and Little taking on the harder competition. Yes, Lowry is kicking aside everything he’s seeing, and that shouldn’t be discounted, and he’s also starting the most shifts of anyone in his own zone. So even though he has to start in his own zone the most, he’s making sure the least happens there. So yeah, right now, if the world made sense, Adam Lowry is your Selke front-runner. Don’t sit on a hot stove waiting for any voter to actually say this, though.

The Norris is a bit harder. Or it’s easier, because you could just hand the thing to Erik Karlsson, along with the three others he should have gotten but didn’t because voters were either MJ’d/LeBron’d out or they’re fucking xenophobes or both. But unlike the Selke, you do have to consider the whole package. Karlsson hasn’t won as many as he should because every so often voters decide merely scoring from the back end isn’t enough, and conveniently forget that Karlsson just pushed everything to the other end of the ice all the time and made life easier for everyone.

If this went how this normally went, John Klingberg or Tyson Barrie would get it because they’re the highest scoring d-men. But again, we know better now. We don’t get to vote, but we know better.

So if we wanted to find the overall best d-man, Corsi-percentage would be a good place to start. Who’s preventing attempts and generating more at the same time? Don’t worry, you’ll like this. Your top five d-men in CF%:

  1. Connor Murphy – CHI (funny, don’t hear Mark Potash complaining about the Hjalmarsson trade at the moment)
  2. Noah Hanifin – CAR
  3. Mark Giordano – CGY
  4. Zach Werenski – CBJ
  5. Dougie Hamilton – CGY

Man, that feels good. But like we did with the forwards, let’s go with xGF% too to see the types of chances that are being surrendered and generated as well:

  1. Brandon Davidson – MTL/EDM
  2. Tim Heed – SJ
  3. Roman Polak – TOR (No, I’m serious)
  4. Jared Spurgeon
  5. Yohann Auvitu – EDM

So this is no help. Aside from Spurgeon, these are four d-men who are skating third pairing minutes and are heavily sheltered. And they play on possession-dominant teams for the most part. So let’s do the relative thing again. First relative Corsi-percentage:

  1. Hampus! Hampus! – ANA
  2. Spurgeon
  3. Josh Manson – ANA (He’s mad… he’s glad…)
  4. Werenski
  5. Giordano

And relative xGF%

  1. Hampus! Hampus!
  2. Spurgeon
  3. Christian Djoos – WSH
  4. Murphy
  5. Drew Doughty – LA

Basically I want to hand the Norris to Murphy because… well, because. And if we’re going strictly but non-points and non-goals, there’s a case. There’s probably a stronger one for Spurgeon or Hampus, and you can throw Giordano and Werenski on the list, but you see what we’re doing here. Both Hampus! Hampus! and Murphy have the best relative corsi-against as well, if we’re going by straight defensive metrics as that’s in the job title. I’ve never thought that was fair, because d-men shouldn’t be punished for contributing offensively, but it’s fun to mention. Murphy also has the best relative xGA/60, and Hampus! Hampus! is 3rd.

Basically, Connor Murphy has been fucking excellent, and if hockey had a Fangraphs-like site that people paid attention to, I would spend all my time making his Norris case and dealing with the laughter. And Hampus! Hampus!’s, because I like saying, “Hampus! Hampus!”

Also, you should be pronouncing “Connor Murphy” just like Chappele’s Rick James said, “Charlie Murphy!” right before he punched him.

 

 

Everything Else

Your Friends And Neighbors – ’17-’18 NHL Team Previews: Give Me Throwbacks Or Give Me Death

By 2235

Maybe a week ago, I would have told you that I was pretty excited to see what the Calgary Flames have in store this season. It has one of the most exciting young players in the game in Johnny Gaudreau, even if he’s a MAGA dipshit. He plays on a very entertaining line with Sean Monahan (is there a chance he could bend?). They have Michael Frolik whom I adore, who’s on a line with fellow hockey Zobrists Michael Backlund and Matthew Tkachuk. They have three #1 d-men, and just added Travis Hamonic who could be one of the better #2-3s in the game. And VERSTEEG! is here!. They look poised to make some serious noise in the West since 2004.

And then their owners started bitching about their arena deal not getting done and now I hope they go 0-82. Because fuck those guys. And wear the fucking throwbacks all the time, dillholes.

Cal And Gary Flames

’16-’17 Record: 45-33-4  94 points (4th in Pacific, torqued in 1st round by ANA)

Team Stats 5v5: 50.5 CF% (10th)  50.5 SF% (10th)  49.9 SCF% (18th)  7.6 SH% (16th)  .920 SV% (22nd)

Special Teams: 20.1 PP% (12th)  81.5 PK% (12th)

Everything Else

Flames Spotlight: Someone Teach Cal And Gary How To Dougie

By 1486

How quickly things change, especially in a Canadian market where every game is seemingly a referendum on the entire morale of a city or province. It was barely 18 months ago when Flames fans and front office were failing to hide their glee at heisting Dougie Hamilton from Boston GM Don Sweeney, who was still definitely only sporting a learner’s permit and should not have been operating the vehicle alone. Holy run-on sentences, Batman!

Fast forward to now and suddenly there are rumblings that Hamilton could be on the trade block. How did we get here? Well, some of it has to do with misuse, some of it perception, some of it cap problems, and some of it the lingering cloud that is the incoming Las Vegas franchise.

Everything Else

You Again?: Flames at Hawks Preview/Dog Grooming

By 1288

flames atlanta vs. Hawk Wrestler

RECORDS: Flames 4-5-1   Hawks 5-3-1

PUCK DROP: 7:30pm

TV: CSN

TEGAN AND SARA FANS: Flamesnation.ca

Projected Lineups

flames-lineup-card

blackhawks-lineup-card

SCORE-ADJUSTED CF%: Flames – 49.0 (20th)  Hawks – 51.4 (10th)

POWER PLAY%: Flames – 10.8 (27th)  Hawks – 23.7 (10th)

PENALTY KILL%: Flames – 72.1 (28th)  Hawks – still bad but climbing!

TRENDS: Gaudreau has four points in his last three games…Elliot has a .941 SV% is last four starts

In another brilliant piece of NHL scheduling, the Flames return to the United Center for the second time in eight days, after having to return home in between because Calgary is just right around the corner. Oh, and after flying out here from Alberta they’ll turn around to head to California right after this one. That’s some excellent work there.

Anyway, much like the Hawks the Flames come into this one starting to cure, at the very slightest, some of the problems that affected the opening weeks of the season.

Everything Else

Ain’t It A Shame?: Cal And Gary Q&A With FlamesNation.com

By 1321

We’ve got the whole crew from FlamesNation.ca, or at least a good chunk of it. Old friend Kent Wilson (@Kent_Wilson), Ari Y (@thirtyfourseven), and Ryan Pike (@RyanNPike).

It’s not that there were huge expectations for the Flames this year, but a lot of people thought they could sneak a playoff spot in the Pacific. It’s been a bit of a wonky first month, what’s been the problem?

Wilson: The stars have been ice cold, the special teams horrendous and they have are taking the 2nd most penalties in the league so far. It’s amazing they’ve won a game. 

Ari: Inexplicable defence pairings, a horrifically anemic powerplay (thanks Dave Cameron. They can’t even enter the zone), still somehow trying to adjust to a new coach apparently, and a really rough start to the season in part thanks to guys like Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan missing the entire preseason (and Monahan may still be dealing with lingering back issues). The Flames only started to look respectable in their first game against Chicago, but the turnaround remains uncertain at this point in time.

Pike: Their four best players (Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano & T.J. Brodie) haven’t been even close to their usual levels and, at times, have actually gotten in the way of the Flames capturing points.

Everything Else

This Isn’t My Beautiful House: Flames at Hawks Preview/TSA Training

By 1234

vs. 

GAMETIME: 7:30pm

TV: CSN. NHL Network outside the 606

RODEO CLOWNS: Flames Nation

RECORDS: Cal And Gary – 1-4-1   Hawks – 3-3-0

Projected Lineups

flames-lineup-card

blackhawks-lineup-card

SCORE ADJUSTED CF%: Cal And Gary – 50.2% (15th)  Hawks – 50.5% (13th)

POWER PLAY: Cal And Gary – 4.0% (Dead ass last)  Hawks – 20.8% (10th)

PENALTY KILL: Cal And Gary – 74.2% (23rd)  Hawks – 42.9% (Dead Ass Last)

TRENDS: Gaudreau and Monahan were a combined -8 against St. Louis last game, the Flames power play is 1-for-25

Much like the Hawks, the Flames start to the season hasn’t exactly kicked into gear like they’d hoped (and getting skulled twice by the Oilers probably hasn’t helped matters much). Cal and Gary stroll in with only one win and three point of the 12 that were on offer. And some of the same problems have bothered the Flames that have bothered the Hawks.

Everything Else

The Difference Between Me And You Is That I’m Not On Fire – Hawks at Flames Preview, Provincial Referendum

By 1336

evil empire at The Flame

Game Time: 9:00PM Central
TV/Radio:  WGN, Sportsnet, WGN-AM 720
Learn How To Wear A Tie, You Fat Sloppy Irishman: Flames Nation, M & G

After four days off for everyone around the organization to prattle on about urgency and jump and turning on the switch and whatever other nonsense they can spew, the Hawks now take to the road in the northwest not to salt away a division, but to keep themselves out of a wild card position thanks to their own ineptitude.